macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 22 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks down on fresh lockdown worries, banking sell-off; dollar rises
  • Asian shares extend losses for 2nd consecutive day
  • Banking sector sell-off continues on dirty money reports
  • Fresh lockdown worries, stimulus delay spook investors
  • Brent up 0.3% at $41.95, gold last at $1,908.76

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises as US storm eases, but demand worries linger
  • Brent up 0.3% at $41.57 a barrel (0224GMT)
  • WTI up 0.7% at $39.57

 
Precious metals

  • Gold edges higher as dollar halts surge on Covid worries
  • Spot gold up 0.3% at $1,918.20/oz. (0052GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.6% at $1,921.50/oz.

Grains

  • Corn rebounds on China demand, though improved crop ratings cap gains
  • Corn futures up 0.2% at $3.70-1/2 a bushel (0332GMT)
  • Soybeans up 0.3% at $10.26 a bushel
  • Wheat up 0.5% at $5.57-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria’s central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 12.5%, prev. 12.5%]
  • Ghana health workers on strike
  • Cameroon opposition protest expected
  • Nigeria petrol tanker drivers go on strike
  • Ghana’s EC displays new voters register; 18-25 Sep
  • 75th session of UN General Assembly (15-30 Sep); high-level general debate starts
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • B2Gold says Mali political situation ‘headed in right direction’
  • Kenya’s top judge advises parliament to dissolve over lack of women
  • Former Mali colonel Ndaw named interim president, junta leader VP
  • Cameroon soldiers jailed for killing women and children
  • Armed men kill at least a dozen civilians in northeast Congo
  • Botswana says toxins in water killed hundreds of elephants
  • Nigeria health workers end strike despite no coronavirus harzard pay
  • Kinross Gold CEO sees ‘very low’ risk of unrest spreading to Mauritania
  • Ivory Coast opposition calls for protests to stop Ouattara’s third term bid
  • Sibanye-Stillwater looking to buy gold mines outside South Africa – CEO
  • Coronavirus rumours and regulations mar Burkina Faso’s malaria fight
  • South Africa’s stocks, rand plunge on risk-off market sentiment
  • Senegal’s economy to contract 0.7% in 2002, IMF says
  • Ivory Coast dry spell supports cocoa main crop
  • OPEC watching Libya oil restart closely, needs time to assess – sources
  • Egypt discovers 27 sarcophagi more than 2,500 years old
  • Zimbabwe teachers to boycott work over pay, demand Covid-19 allowance
  • Oil tanker heads to Libya’s Hariga terminal as NOC partially lifts force majeure
  • Turkey will keep supporting Libya’s GNA despite Sarraji plan to quit
  • Botswana says cyanobacteria cause of mysterious elephant deaths
  • Algeria announces early legislative election
  • Algeria names new central bank governor, says President Tebboune
  • Morocco orders Covid-19 vaccine as cases approach 100,000
  • South Africa to allow travel from all of Africa from Oct. 1
  • South Africa’s Investec profit warning increases heat from investors

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 21 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares cling to tight ranges as attention shifts to US election, stimulus
  • MSCI ex-Japan down 0.1%, China blue-chips down 0.3%
  • Brent down 1 cent at $41.1
  • Spot gold slightly lower at $1,951.3

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices steady as third storm in month takes aims at US
  • Brent up 0.2% at $43.24 a barrel (0230GMT)
  • WTI up 0.2% at $42.21

Precious metals

  • Gold prices firm as tepid dollar lends support
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,953.37/oz. (0334GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,960.50/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans ease from 28-mth high, Chinese demand curbs losses
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $10.42 a bushel (0258GMT)
  • Corn down 0.4% at $3.77 a bushel
  • Wheat unmoved at $5.75 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Ghana’s Akufo-Addo visits Nigeria; 20-22 Sep
  • Uganda eases Covid-19 restrictions, allows in tourists
  • Nigeria’s central bank decides interest rates; 21-22 Sep [fcst. 12.5%, prev. 12.5%]
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • World leaders to mark United Nations at 75 as pandemic challenges organization
  • Sudan to discuss removal from US terrorism list in UAE
  • Covid-19 graft scandals fuel South Africans’ anger with ruling ANC
  • Banks agree $545 mln for Congo Republic economy
  • Libya’s NOC lifts force majeure on oil, except where fighters remain
  • Morocco orders Covid-19 vaccine as cases approach 100,000
  • Former execs of South Africa’s Comair to buy out firm in restructuring
  • South Africa commits $650 mln to airline SAA, adminstrator says
  • Turkey upset by Sarraj’s plan to step down in Libya – Erdogan
  • With tourists slow to return, Egypt’s resorts and ancient sites face tough winter
  • Three women in final five for WTO leadership race
  • Libya’s Haftar says he will lift oil blockade
  • Dutch court freezes stake in Angola’s former first family oil feud
  • Somalia president names newcomer Roble premier as elections loom
  • Japan sending team to probe Mauritius ship grounding
  • Ivory Coast opposition calls for protests to stop Ouattara’s third term bid
  • Ethiopia files terrorism charges against leading opposition activist
  • ‘Hotel Rwanda’ hero says he was duped into coming to Rwanda, NYT reports
  • Convoy ambush in eastern Congo kills one aid worker
  • Ivory Coast ex-PM, barred from standing for president, says Ouattara must be blocked
  • Burundi impunity for abuses continues, says UN report, as another mass grave opened
  • Militant group claims killing of France aid workers in Niger
  • More than 30 killed in militia attacks in western Ethiopia
  • Suspected arms dealers moved millions in Somalia money transfers, report says
  • ‘Hotel Rwanda’ hero denied bail during terror trial

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 18 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia defies Wall Street weakness but economy, election worries cap gains
  • MSCI ex-Japan up 0.2%, Nikkei 0.1% higher
  • S&P down 0.2%, Nasdaq up 0.07%
  • Brent last 0.2% firmer at $43.39

Oil Markets

  • Oil eases as US production returns after storm
  • Brent down 6 cents at $43.24 a barrel (0112GMT)
  • WTI down 6 cents at $40.91

Precious metals

  • Gold firms on economic worries, stimulus hopes
  • Spot gold up 0.5% at $1,951.32/oz. (0348GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.5% at $1,959/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans set for sixth weekly gain as China steps up purchases
  • Soybean futures up more than 4% this week, set for more than 20% rally in 6 weeks
  • Corn up nearly 3% this week
  • Wheat up close to 4% in the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa ministerial briefings on ease of Covid-19 restrictions expected
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Aug-20 [prev. 82.8]
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Burundi impunity for abuses continues, says UN report, as another mass grave opened
  • Suspected arms dealers moved millions in Somalia money transfers, report says
  • Somalia’s president names Mohamed Hussein Roble as prime minister
  • Convoy ambush in eastern Congo kills one aid worker
  • Militant groupu claims killing of France aid workers in Niger
  • More than 30 killed in militia attacks in western Ethiopia
  • Head of Libya’s Tripoli govt says he wants to quit
  • ‘Hotel Rwanda’ hero denied bail during terror trial
  • Ivory Coast ex-PM, barred from standing for president, says Ouattara must be blocked
  • Uganda reverses forest destruction by inviting in…loggers
  • Algeria referendum looms as test for president and opposition
  • Uganda says 219 prisoners escape, some with guns and ammunition
  • South Sudan president replaces finance minister, state TV reports
  • Covid-19 graft scandals fuel South Africans’ anger with ruling ANC
  • South Africa to open up for international travel from Oct.1, says president
  • Kenya county govts shut down services in dispute over revenue-sharing scheme
  • Mali junta moves toward selecting interim president after embargo threat

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 17 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares open weaker after Fed
  • Nikkei flat, Hang Seng down 0.15%
  • BoJ keeps policy steady
  • Brent down 0.8% at $41.86
  • Gold down 1.1% at $1,938.12

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls as demand worries re-emerge, crews return to US Gulf rigs
  • Brent down 0.8% at $41.86 a barrel (0355GMT)
  • WTI down 1.1% at $39.73

Precious metals

  • Gold drops 1% as dollar rises after Fed’s upbeat economic view
  • Spot gold down 1.1% at $1,938.12/oz. (0321GMT)
  • US gold futures down 1% at $1,951.30/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans hit over 27-mth high on Chinese demand
  • Soybean futures up 0.6% at $10.17-1/2 a bushel (0134GMT)
  • Corn down 0.1% at $3.71-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.1% at $5.41-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa’s SARB decides on interest rates [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
  • Kenya counties shut down over revenue allocation standoff
  • South Africa ministerial briefings on ease of Covid-19 restrictions expected
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Ghana’s economy contracts for the first time in 37 years
  • Head of Libya’s Tripoli govt says he wants to quit
  • Egypt cuts highways across pyramids plateau, alarming conservationists
  • South Sudan president replaces finance minister, state TV reports
  • Covid-19 graft scandals fuel South Africans’ anger with ruling ANC
  • South Africa to open up for international travel from Oct.1, says President
  • Kenya county govts shut down services in dispute over revenue-sharing scheme
  • Mali junta moves toward selecting interim president after embargo threat
  • ‘Hotel Rwanda’ hero could face maximum life in prison, prosecution says
  • West Africa bloc fails to reach agreement with Mali junta
  • More than 50 prisoners starve to death in east Congo prison
  • South Africa’s Discovery reports 94% drop in full-year profit
  • Mozambique army condemns ‘horrifying’ shooting of naked woman at hands of fighters
  • Algeria upholds conviction of journalist; rights group fear new crackdown
  • UN chief to appoint special envoy to broker peace in Libya

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 16 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian stocks cheer upbeat data but temper appetite ahead of Fed
  • MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.5%
  • Yen hits 2-wk high, dollar treads water
  • Gold, US treasury yields flat before Fed statement
  • Brent up 0.8% at $40.85

Oil Markets

  • Oil gains as hurricane shuts US output, stockpiles fall
  • Brent up 0.4% at $40.68 a barrel (0055GMT)
  • WTI up 0.5% at $38.46

Precious metals

  • Gold off 2-wk high as dollar firms ahead of Fed decision
  • Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,952.15/oz. (0026GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.3% at $1,960.50/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans extend decline on lower US crush; corn falls
  • Soybean futures down 0.2% at $9.89-3/4 a bushel (0226GMT)
  • Corn down 0.5% at $3.64-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.5% at $5.35-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria banking & finance industry conference; day 2
  • South Africa retail sales Jul-20 [fcst. -6.6% yy, prev. -7.5%]
  • South Africa business confidence Aug-20 [prev. 82.8]
  • South Africa’s SARB decides on interest rates [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • South Sudan fighter for women’s voices honored by US peace group
  • West Africa bloc fails to reach agreement with Mali junta
  • UN chief to appoint special envoy to broker peace in Libya
  • Mozambique army condemns ‘horrifying’ shooting of naked woman at hands of fighters
  • Moussa Traore, who led Mali’s first military coup, dies at 83
  • Zimbabwe eases Covid-19 restrictions as exam classes start
  • Gambia’s former first lady Zineb Jammeh hit with US sanctions
  • Egypt TV host’s comments on hijab spark debate, probe by media watchdog
  • AstraZeneca resumes Covid-19 vaccine trials in South Africa, health dept says
  • More than 50 prisoners starve to death in east Congo prison
  • UK says following court case of Zimbabwe journalist
  • Egypt cuts highways across pyramids plateau, alarming conservationists
  • Algeria upholds conviction of journalist; rights groups fear new crackdown
  • At least 24 migrants drowned off Libya – IOM
  • Kenya’s budget deficit likely to swell, finance minister says
  • Mali must appoint civilian govt immediately, says regional bloc
  • ‘There’s nothing we can do’, striking South Africa undertakers tell bereaved
  • Guinea-Bissau migration agency boss arrested for alleged cocaine trafficking
  • Millions of Africa children rely on TV education during pandemic
  • Nigeria health workers strike over coronavirus allowance
  • South Africa coronavirus loan scheme lags, hobbling govt relief package
  • Nigeria’s petrol and power price rises upset business owners

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 15 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian stocks head higher on China data, markets eye Fed meeting
  • MSCI ex-Japan index rises, most Asian markets in green
  • Central bank meetings dominate week’s agenda
  • Brent down 0.1% at $39.58, WTI down 0.1% at $37.24

Oil Markets

  • Oil inches lower as bleaker demand outlook weighs
  • Brent down 0.1% at $39.58 a barrel (0102GMT)
  • WTI down 0.1% at $37.24

Precious metals

  • Gold rises on softer dollar, investors focus on Fed meet
  • Spot gold up 0.3% at $1,962.78/oz. (0259GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.5% at $1,972.60/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans near 2-yr high on Chinese demand, US crop woes
  • Soybean futures up 0.4% at $10.03 a bushel (0248GMT)
  • Corn down 0.3% at $3.68-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat up 0.1% at $5.46-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • ECOWAS leaders meet on Mali in Aburi, Ghana
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa presides over meetings of councils on the economy (NEDLAC) & covid-19 response (PCC)
  • South Africa business confidence Aug-20 [prev. 82.8]
  • South Africa’s SARB MPC meets on rates; 15-17 Sep [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
  • Nigeria inflation Aug-20 [fcst. 12.8% yy, prev. 12.8%]
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Canada’s First Quantum eyes operations expansion at Zambia mine
  • Ivory Coast council approves President Ouattara for third term
  • US slaps more election-related visa restrictions on Nigerians
  • ‘Hotel Rwanda’ hero declines to plead to terrorism charges
  • Egypt real estate firms’ profit hit by coronavirus crisis
  • Protest erupt in Ivory Coast against Ouattara’s third term bid
  • Nigeria reels from twin crisis that threaten food availability
  • OPEC+ Sept meeting unlikely to advocate deeper oil output cuts – sources
  • Egypt to allow wedding ceremonies, cultural events in open-air venues
  • Iran says it supports OPEC as long as its interests are protected
  • AngloGold Ashanti says South Africa gives “unconditional” approval for asset sale to Harmony
  • Ten Tanzanian school children killed in dormitory fire
  • Morocco medics protest over conditions, staff shortages as pandemic surges
  • Ivory Coast rains boost cocoa main crop
  • Coronavirus prompts major pre-emptive Egypt wheat buying spree
  • Vodafone says STC ‘substantively’ completed due diligence on Egypt unit stake sale

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 14 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares buoyed by coronavirus vaccine hopes
  • MSCI ex-Japan rises, most Asian markets in green
  • AstraZeneca resumes phase-3 trial for coronavirus vaccine
  • UK, US, Japan central bank meetings expected this week
  • Brent up 0.5% at $40, gold firm at $1,949.7/oz.

Oil Markets

  • Oil mixed as storm threatens US gulf production
  • Brent down 3 cents at $39.80 a barrel (0050GMT)
  • WTI up 9 cents at $37.42

Precious metals

  • Gold gains on weaker dollar, investors await Fed meeting
  • Spot gold up 0.4% at $1,949.92/oz. (0309GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.6% at $1,958.60/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans rise above $10/bushel on Chinese demand, corn at 5-mth peak
  • Soybean futures up 0.8% at $10.04-1/2 a bushel (0347GMT)
  • Corn up 0.6% at $3.70-3/4 a bushel
  • Wheat up 0.4% at $5.44 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria health workers embark on 7-day strike
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Aug-20 [prev. 82.8]
  • ECOWAS leaders meet on Mali in Accra (15 Sep)
  • South Africa’s SARB MPC meets on rates; 15-17 Sep [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
  • Nigeria inflation Aug-20 [fcst. 12.8% yy, prev. 12.8%]
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Protesters set govt building on fire in eastern Libya
  • Uganda, Tanzania sign agreement for construction of crude oil pipeline
  • Mali’s M5-RFP coalition rejects junta’s post-coup charter
  • South Africa economy to shrink by more than govt’s 7% forecast in 2020 – Mboweni
  • Libya medics already faced war, now the pandemic is surging there too
  • Saudi Telecom says no deal reached on Vodafone Egypt stake
  • Libya’s Haftar committed to ending oil blockade, US says
  • Ivory Coast’s Bedie promises to let exiles return if elected president
  • Mali negotiators back charter that could see soldier as interim president
  • Congo gold miners scour rubble for bodies after cave-in
  • Mali interim president can be soldier or civilian – rapporteur
  • Congo says it will reimburse VAT to mining companies after audit
  • Ambulance hits landmine in southern Mali, killing six
  • At least 50 killed in collapsed gold mine in east Congo – NGO
  • Uganda, Total reach agreement bringing to fresh 4-wk low on cooler forecasts
  • Ivory Coast govt seeks end to violence ahead of October election
  • Egypt’s Sisi says appreciates ‘important step’ of Israel, Bahrain establishing diplomatic ties
  • Can a tooth settle the mystery over Congo’s independence hero?
  • Unilever South Africa takes further steps after ‘racist’ TRESemme advert
  • Regional party wins vote in Ethiopia’s Tigray, challenging federal govt
  • Six killed in Burundi gun attack, weeks after similar incident
  • Risk appetite aids South Africa’s rand recovery, stocks up
  • Almost 100 Senegal soldiers test positive for coronavirus
  • Junta to appoint Mali leader in 2-yr transition, proposal says
  • South Africa bank profits seen taking years to recover from Covid-19 hit
  • Malawi’s economy to grow 4.5% in 2021 – finmin
  • Zimbabwe divorce law spurs women’s fight for property

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

Capitalism and development

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

The main idea in IE Business School global economy professor and fund manager Daniel Lacalle’s 2020 book “Freedom or Equality: The key to prosperity through social capitalism” is the “need to apply the power of free markets to solve society’s greatest problems.” In his assertion, “there are market-based solutions to all of our social problems.” Thus, Lacalle defines “social capitalism” as the application of “free market ingenuity toward solving social problems.”

Simply put, “the private sector, not the government, makes direct investments in social welfare.” It is not suggested that firms become charities. Not at all. Social welfare is simply good business. There is money to be made. Plenty of it. But you also add value to society in tandem. A so-called “win-win”.

The idea might not easily appeal to people in places where things already work, where governments deliver public services efficiently and do so quite optimally. In fact, social capitalism could easily be confused with “socialism” if the distinction is properly delineated. In a socialist system, the “community”, proxied by the state, owns “the means of production, distribution, and exchange”. For social capitalism, however, the “individual” remains at the core. Simply put, social capitalism is not collectivism.

And unlike socialism or communism, social capitalism evolves with the times. It is dynamic. It relies on an incentive system that recognises the motivations and weaknesses of human nature. Public goods are likely to be delivered efficiently if there is a profit motive. And the desire to ensure the money wheel keeps spinning motivates adherence to the rules.

So what would be the role of governments then? Their guiding philosophy should certainly be to help businesses in anyway they can. This is not as simple as it seems. When governments look at firms, they see taxes and how their budgets would be financed. In the system being proposed, governments engage businesses before the money-making begins.

In other words, they ask firms how they can help them achieve their targets. They engage the business community on a regular basis. If done right, the relationship becomes a symbiotic one, whereby concessions here and there translate into gains in social welfare. In Lacalle’s exposition, “the government [would] be a facilitator, not the executor, of social welfare.”

Naturally, you may wonder if such an approach might not create a system whereby there is ample but expensive pipe-borne water, power supply, and other social services. And there is always the risk of monopolistic or cartel behaviour, whereby a firm or group of firms dominate an industry so much that they cannot be controlled. There is also the risk that the owners of such dominant firms extend their influence into politics and government.

These are not unfounded. But is it not already the case that the rich influence politics and governments in most countries? And it has nothing to do with whether the country is wealthy or not. American lobbyists literally dictate key legislations and orders of the executive branch; albeit with some finesse. In poor countries, the rich are much more brazen. They have no qualms with parading the extent of their influence in government. And in some cases, they become the government themselves.

In other words, the potential risks of a private sector-led social welfare system are already there. What social capitalism ensures is that firms make money and engender social welfare in tandem. Privately-financed roads rarely have potholes. Consumers of commercially-priced electricity make sure to switch off the lights when going to bed. Needless showers are usually rare if water supply is metered. Our governments would certainly have less debt on their books consequently. We may not have as much corruption. And firms would certainly be interested in sustaining the political system that puts them first.

But should the priority of governments not be the people? Of course, it should. People want jobs. They want to live in a functioning society, where the roads are smooth, and electricity and clean water are taken for granted. The record of governments trying to do these on their own is very poor, however. Capitalism without a leash is similarly terrible, as the rising inequality and populist backlash in rich countries show.

Winston Churchill once described the dilemma succinctly: “The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.” With the right incentives and safeguards, firms could do for development what they do for themselves.

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 11 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Shares struggle to shake off bearish mood as US tech giants fall anew
  • MSCI AxJ down 0.2%, Nikkei up 0.3%
  • NYSE Fang+ index down 5.4% so far this week
  • Brent down 0.2% at $39.98, WTI flat at $37.30

Oil Markets

  • Oil extends losses as stockpile rise amid weakening demand
  • Brent down 0.5% at $39.88 a barrel (0337GMT)
  • WTI down 0.4% at $37.16

Precious metals

  • Gold slips from 1-wk peak hit by stronger dollar
  • Spot gold down 0.8% at $1,938.53/oz. (0308GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.8% at $1,948/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans set for fifth weekly gain as China ramps up purchases
  • Corn set for positive finish as market eyes USDA forecast
  • Soybeans up 13% so far in 5 weeks
  • Soybean futures up 1.2% this week
  • Corn up 2.2% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Aug-20 [prev. 82.8]
  • AGRF virtual “Feed the Cities” summit in Kigali; 8-11 Sep
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Zimbabwe divorce law spurs women’s fight for property
  • Protests flare in Libya’s Benghazi over power cuts, living conditions
  • Sudan declares state of economic emergency after sharp fall in currency
  • Nigeria’s central bank told to stop giving forex for food imports
  • Nigeria President Buhari directs central bank to stop issuing foreign exchange for food imports
  • Nigeria doctors suspend strike to allow govt time to meet demands
  • Suspected militants kill at least 53 in eastern Congo
  • Mozambique denies accusations of abuses in insurgency-hit province
  • Unilever South Africa to pull all TRESemme products for 10 days over ‘racist’ ad
  • Death toll in eastern Congo village attacks rises to at least 53
  • Communities ‘left out’ as oil pipeline project set to get underway in East Africa
  • EU sea patrol stops UAE ship on suspicion of breaking Libya arms embargo
  • AstraZeneca vaccine trial pause a “wake-up call”, says WHO
  • Egypt to hold parliamentary elections on Oct 24-25 – elections commissioner
  • Libya’s NOC says armed group entered Sharara oil field on Sunday, one person killed
  • CAR seeks justice for rural victims of sexual violence
  • Ivory Coast to hike farmgate cocoa prices 21% this season, sources say
  • South Africa’s Harmony Gold expects to swing to a full year loss
  • South Africa Airways needs state cash next week – administrators
  • WHO says $700 mln raised so far for Covid-19 vaccines initiative for poor
  • Uganda says to re-open airport and resume international flights on Oct. 1
  • South Africa’s FirstRand hopes to return to dividends next year
  • South Africa’s manufacturing output falls 10.6% y/y in July
  • Police and protesters clash as Mali starts post-coup transition talks
  • South Africa Airways needs state cash next week – administrators
  • South Africa’s Aspen to seek acquisitions in emerging markets
  • South Africa’s Dis-chem joins list of retailers removing TRESemme products from shelves
  • South Africa’s Eskom expects 2021 replacement of generators at nuclear plant
  • Chickens roost in Kenya’s empty classrooms amid Covid-19 shutdown
  • Kenya county tackles water woes with locally led climate fund
  • Insurer Sanlam posts profit rise, to expand across Africa
  • South Africa insurer Sanlam reports 10% half-year profit rise

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Sep

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian stock markets gain following tech bounce, euro waits for ECB
  • MSCI AxJ up 0.5% after Nasdaq jumped 2.7% overnight
  • Currency markets await ECB
  • Oil prices back under pressure amid demand fears
  • Brent down 0.4% at $40.63, WTI down 0.6% at $37.82

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices fall as growing US stockpiles signal bumpy demand recovery
  • US stockpiles rose last week, drop had been expected
  • Brent down 0.4% at $40.62 a barrel (0417GMT); rose 2.5% Wed.
  • WTI down 0.6% at $37.81; rose 3.5% on Wed.

Precious metals

  • Gold at 1-wk high as weak dollar supports; ECB meet in focus
  • Spot gold flat at $1,945.87/oz. (0307GMT)
  • US gold futures steady at $1,955.50/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans retreat from over 2-yr high ahead of USDA report
  • Soybeans snap winning streak despite Chinese demand
  • Wheat firms on concerns over Black Sea production
  • Soybean futures down 0.2% at $9.76-1/2 a bushel (0342GMT)
  • Corn up 0.1% at $3.60-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat up 0.4% at $5.46 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa current account balance Q2-2020 [fcst. 5.1% of GDP, prev. 1.3%]
  • South Africa manufacturing production Jul-20 [fcst. -11.2% yy, prev. -16.3%]
  • South Africa mining production Jul-20 [fcst. -20.4% yy, prev. -28.2%]
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence Aug-20 [prev. 82.8]
  • AGRF virtual “Feed the Cities” summit in Kigali; 8-11 Sep
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • South Africa human rights lawyer George Bizos dies at 92
  • Mali’s protest leader backs civilian ‘rare bird’ to lead transition
  • Guinea constitutional council clears President Conde’s third term bid
  • Floods kill at least 13 and injure 19 in Burkina Faso
  • Nigeria in talks to give up majority stakes in refineries, NNPC chief says
  • All four of Nigeria’s refineries are currently shut down, says NNPC chief
  • Turkey sentences five journalists for naming intelligence agents in Libya
  • Businesses doing good can reboot ‘fairer’ Africa after coronavirus
  • Ethiopia’s Tigray holds regional election in defiance of federal govt
  • United to add new direct US flights to Africa, India, Hawaii
  • Uganda move to regulate online activity is tool to curb dissent ahead of polls – rights groups
  • South Africa volunteers on AstraZeneca vaccine trial say not alarmed by pause
  • Egypt sets up commodities exchange for wheat, oils, sugar and rice
  • Nigeria asks for $1.1 bln advance from Eni, Shell in graft case
  • Air Namibia plans 50% cut to wages of some workers
  • Kenya’s $580m medical equipment leasing deal ‘criminal’ – Senate panel
  • Tullow Oil fending off potential cash crunch, reports $1.3 bln loss
  • Zimbabwe nurses end 3-mth strike over pay
  • Strategic Somaliland touts its oil and gas as opens Taiwan office

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters