Monthly Archives: February 2020

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 20 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Slowing virus, China stimulus hopes support stocks
  • China cuts lending rate to prop virus-hit economy
  • Asian stocks advance
  • Yen nurses losses after overnight plunge

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises on supply worries, while virus-led demand concerns ease
  • Brent up 0.8% at $59.57 a barrel (0208GMT)
  • WTI up 0.9% at $53.78

Precious metals

  • Gold eases from 7-yr peak on slowing virus spread, China stimulus hopes
  • Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,607.49/oz. (0100GMT)
  • US gold futures unchanged at $1,612.40/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat ticks up on global supply worries
  • Wheat futures up 0.1% at $5.662 a bushel (0128GMT)
  • Soybean futures little changed at $8.97-1/2 a bushel
  • Corn futures up 0.2% at $3.78-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Ghana’s Akufo-Addo 2020 message on the State of the Nation
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa responds to parliament debate of his State of the Nation Address
  • Kenya parliament vets new Uhuru cabinet secretary nominees
  • Global off-grid solar forum & expo 2020 in Nairobi; 18-20 Feb
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Libya govt, Haftar’s forces dim hopes of salvaging UN ceasefire talks
  • Tunisia names new govt, avoids risk of early election
  • Namibia central bank expects economy to grow in 2020 – governor
  • South Africa could use mining royalities to set up sovereign fund – minister
  • Italian judge puts Nigerian businessman on trial on oil graft case
  • Africa Oil – Cargoes clear slowly as Nigerian programmes awaited
  • WHO says man with coronavirus in Egypt is recovering, no longer a carrier
  • South Africa’s rand firms after CPI data, stocks rise
  • ‘Nothing left’: Kenyan mother’s fields stripped by locust swarm
  • South Africa – Massmart CEO says not ready to let Game dept chain fail
  • Kenya’s Safaricom to consider Huawei as supplier for 5G network
  • Zambia central bank keeps key rate flat, cites low growth & deficit risks
  • Revolutionary squads guard Sudan’s bakeries to battle corruption
  • Libya’s Serraj says talk about resuming peace negotiations has been overtaken by events
  • US Pompeo takes veiled swipe at China on final leg of Africa trip
  • Somali militants kill 12 soldiers in attack on base, say officials
  • Egypt posts GDP growth of 5.6% in 6 months to Dec
  • Russia says it, Haftar agree political settlement is only option for Libya
  • Absa Bank says Kenya mobile banking app used by almost 5 mln customers
  • UN tries to salvage Libya talks after govt announces pullout
  • Egypt says foreigner thought to be carrying coronavirus has tested negative for it
  • African private equity fund buys Burger King South Africa franchise
  • South Africa’s Bidcorp says coronavirus will impact second half
  • Kenya shilling under pressure against the dollar
  • Uganda shilling flat amid some charity flows
  • Sierra Leone gangster leaves streets for life of poetry
  • South Africa consumer inflation rises to 4.5% y/y in January
  • Rising metals prices spur S.African miner Sibanye to 2nd-half rebound
  • South Africa’s Sibanye-Stillwater posts headline loss
  • South Africa’s Grand Parade to sell Burger King franchise

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 19 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares nudge up as virus spread slows, euro fragile
  • Sentiment remains fragile due to worries about virus
  • 3-mo/10-yr treasury yield curve inverts
  • Weak German data pummels euro

Oil Markets

  • Oil inches higher, but gains capped by widening economic impact of coronavirus outbreak
  • Brent up 6 cents at $57.81 a barrel (0149GMT)
  • WTI up 7 cents at $51.97

Precious metals

  • Gold eases as drop in virus cases lifts risk appetite
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,600.67/oz. (0037GMT)
  • US gold futures unchanged at $1,603.60/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat retreats from 3-wk high as traders book profits
  • Wheat futures down 0.4% at $5.64-1/4 a bushel (0149GMT)
  • Soybean futures up 0.1% at $8.93-1/2 a bushel
  • Corn futures down 0.3% at $3.82 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Bank of Namibia interest rate decision [fcst. 6.25%, prev. 6.5%]
  • South Africa inflation Jan-20 [fcst. 4.4% yy, prev. 4.0%]
  • Bank of Zambia post-MPC press briefing [fcst. 11.5%, prev. 11.5%]
  • Global off-grid solar forum & expo 2020 in Nairobi; 18-20 Feb
  • South Africa’s parliament debate Ramaphosa State of the Nation Address; 18-19 Feb
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Libya oil production at 123,537 bpd as of Feb. 18 – NOC statement
  • Libya’s internationally recognized govt suspends ceasefire talks in Geneva
  • Eastern Libyan forces strike Tripoli port in new escalation
  • Libya’s NOC evacuates fuel vessels from Tripoli port, halts offloading after forces strike
  • Zimbabwe threatens to withdraw mining licences over unpaid fees
  • Locusts swarm into South Sudan as plague spreads
  • IMF cuts Nigeria’s growth forecast on lower oil price outlook
  • Africa Oil – Angolan programme emerges
  • US to offer financial support for Ethiopia political reforms – PM
  • South Africa’s rand ticks lower as Moody’s stokes downgrade fears
  • South Africa’s statistics agency faces funding crisis
  • Vessels at port of Libyan capital evacuated after attack – official
  • UN Libya envoy says Tripoli port was attacked on Tuesday
  • Uganda shilling weakens a touch on uptick in interbank demand
  • South Africa’s Eskom needs cash injection to avoid debt crisis – CEO
  • Emerging markets need policy mix, not just flexible FX, IMF chief says
  • US secretary of state meets Ethiopia’s reformist prime minister
  • Kenya sets belt-tightening target for 2021 financial year
  • EU adds Seychelles, Cayman Islands, Panama to tax haven blacklist, spares Turkey
  • Lesotho leader’s wife murder trial to start next month – court
  • Nigeria annual inflation hits near 2-yr high in January; rises to 12.13%
  • Kenya shilling weakens against the dollar
  • South Africa’s Kumba Iron annual earnings rise on higher ore rates

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 18 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks fall after Apple warns on coronavirus impact
  • Apples says will not meet revenue target for Jan-March
  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, mainland China shares lose 0.2%
  • Australian dollar falls; gold, US bonds gain

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices slip as coronavirus concerns linger
  • Brent down 0.6% at $57.30 a barrel (0126GMT)
  • WTI down 0.3% at $51.90

Precious metals

  • Gold rises on mounting business impact from virus outbreak
  • Spot gold up 0.4% at $1,586.32/oz. (0246GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,589.30/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat climbs more than 1.5% to hit 18-day high
  • Wheat futures up 1.5% at $5.50-1/2 a bushel (0115GMT)
  • Soybean futures down 0.4% at $8.90-1/4 a bushel
  • Corn futures up 0.2% at $3.78-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa’s parliament to debate Ramaphosa State of the Nation Address; 18-19 Feb
  • US Secretary of State Pompeo tours Africa (Senegal, Angola & Ethiopia); 16-19 Feb
  • Nigeria inflation Jan-20 [fcst. 12.1% yy, prev. 12.0%]
  • Bank of Zambia MPC meeting; 17-18 Feb [fcst. 11.5% , prev. 11.5%]
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Nigeria’s state oil company & partners spent $360 mln on Delta cleanup – NNPC
  • Libya’s NOC oil production at 135,745 bpd as of Monday
  • Libya’s rival factions dig in for long conflict
  • At least 23 killed in Niger aid stampede – officials
  • ICC trial in The Hague one option for Sudan’s Bashir – minister
  • Tunisia president to call early poll if govt loses vote of confidence
  • Africa Oil – Teapots return to buy cheap barrels; programmes awaited
  • EU agrees new Libya sea patrols after Austria lifts veto
  • South African rand falls as Moody’s cuts growth forecast, stocks firm
  • Armed men in military fatigues kill 22 in Cameroon village
  • As South Sudan deadline to form unit govt looms, soldiers and rebels hastily gather
  • Pompeo blasts corruption, promotes US business in Africa trip
  • Ethiopia approves supplementary budget of 27.89 billion birr
  • Popular Rwandan singer found dead in police cell – officials
  • Moody’s cuts South Africa’s 2020 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%
  • Gunmen kill 24 in attack on Burkina Faso church
  • Italy’s foreign minister Di Maio says EU agreed mission to block arms supply in Libya
  • Egypt pursues criminal investigation into Egyptian academic studying in Italy
  • Equatorial Guinea argues luxury Paris mansion was part of embassy when raided
  • Ivory Coast to issue domestic bonds worth $184 mln
  • Ivory Coast 2019/20 cocoa arrivals reached 1.474 mln T by Feb. 16 – exporters
  • Zimbabwe central bank leaves rates unchanged, bullish on inflation
  • Burning tyres and sore feet: Lagos bristles under bike ban
  • South Africa lifts foot-and-mouth auction ban – farm minister
  • South African rand firmer as China rate cut soothes virus anxiety
  • Kenyan farmers find sweet spot with nutritious, drought-hardy crop

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 17 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares hover around 3-wk highs on Chinese support measures
  • MSCI ex-Japan ticks up , Japan’s Nikkei stumbles
  • Chinese shares on firm footing on stimulus hopes
  • Japan’s GDP shrinks at fastest pace in 6 yrs
  • Singapore downgrades growth outlook due to coronavirus

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices slip ahead of data pointers on impact of coronavirus on demand
  • Global oil demand could fall by 435,000 bpd in Q1 – IEA
  • Russia may support further OPEC+ cuts on growing oil glut
  • Brent down 33 cents at $56.99 a barrel (0121GMT)
  • WTI down 13 cents at $51.92

Precious metals

  • Gold holds near 2-wk high on uncertainty over virus impact
  • Spot gold little changed at $1,582.27/oz. (0226GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,585.40/oz.

Grains (15 Feb)

  • Corn, soy, wheat futures end lower ahead of US holiday weekend
  • Wheat futures settled up 0.1% at $5.42-3/4 a bushel
  • Corn futures settled down 0.5% at $3.77-3/4 a bushel
  • Soybeans futures settled down 0.4% at $8.93-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • US Secretary of State Pompeo tours Africa (Senegal, Angola & Ethiopia); 16-19 Feb
  • Nigeria inflation Jan-20 [fcst. 12.1% yy, prev. 12.0%]
  • Bank of Zambia MPC meeting; 17-18 Feb [fcst. 11.5% , prev. 11.5%]
  • Protests on insecurity expected in Nigeria
  • South Africa state capture inquiry resumes

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Netanyahu says Israeli airliners have started overflying Sudan
  • Burundi opposition picks presidential contender as UN warns of rights abuses
  • UN says Libya arms embargo a ‘joke’, demands accountability
  • Zimbabwe inflation falls to 2.23% m/m in January
  • Armed gang kills at least 30 in northwest Nigeria, police say
  • Tunisia talks on cabinet press on amid risk of new election
  • Tunisia PM designate proposes new govt, negotiations to continue
  • Libya faces financial crisis due to oil blockade – PM
  • Turkey’s Erdogan says Russia managing Libya conflict “at highest level” – NTV
  • Over 6,000 bodies found in Burundi’s mass graves
  • South Sudan cuts number of states from 32 to 10, unlocking peace process
  • Egypt agrees with five energy firms on exploration in Mediterranean – minister
  • Attackers kill 31 in Mali village, after massacre last year at same site
  • Turkey says Libya’s Haftar violating ceasefire, must be stopped
  • South Sudan cuts number of states from 32 to 10, unlocking peace process
  • Egypt’s jobless rate drops to 8% in fourth quarter 2019 – state agency
  • Egypt confirms first coronavirus case, says affected person is a foreigner
  • In new attack on site of massacre, 21 killed or missing in Mali
  • Africa Oil – Spot trade grinds to a halt
  • South Africa’s rand firmer after Ramaphosa’s speech, stocks flat
  • First Quantum says no expansion at Zambia copper mine until 2024
  • Algerians keep up protests a year after demonstrations began
  • Ethiopia to hold parliamentary elections on Aug. 29
  • Nigeria’s military razed villages in war on insurgents – Amnesty
  • South African court rejects union bid to block SAA job cuts
  • Kenya’s KCB sees loan growth tripling to 15% after rate cap appeal
  • South African public sector union says wage deal not open for review
  • Nigeria to pick advisers for $3.3 bln eurobond via open bids – OMO
  • Ramaphosa’s speech underscores weak South Africa credit outlook – Fitch
  • No reform, no cash: majors hold out for new Nigerian oil law
  • eSwatini’s economy likely grew 1.4% in 2019 – finin
  • Zimbabwe court clears opposition official facing subversion charges
  • Zimbabwe police fire teargas as court rules on opposition leader’s subversion case
  • Tough livestock farmers touched by South Africa drought donations
  • South Africa’s central bank moves to sell stake in African Bank
  • Lenders cheered as Kenya binged on medical equipment. Did patients get help?
  • African Development Bank says World Bank chief’s criticism “misleading”

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 14 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares tick up, aim for 2nd week of gains amid virus scare
  • Ex-Japan Asian shares up 0.3%, Nikkei loses 0.5%
  • Hopes of govt stimulus support shares
  • Dollar hits 4-mth high as investors flee to US assets
  • Euro hits 3-yr low ahead of euro zone GDP

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices steady but set for weekly gain on supply cut optimism
  • Brent down 9 cents at $56.25 a barrel (0234GMT)
  • WTI down 1 cent at $51.41

Precious metals

  • Gold eases as equities edge up, virus concerns cap losses
  • Gold set to gain 0.3% for the week
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,574.69/oz. (0427GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,577.80/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans on course for biggest weekly gain in nearly 2 mths
  • Soybean futures up 1.5% for the week
  • Corn futures down 1% so far this week
  • Wheat futures down 2.5% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • US Secretary of State Pompeo visits Senegal; 15-16 Feb
  • Ethiopia’s Abiy visits UAE
  • EFF’s Malema addresses Press Club of South Africa
  • Guinea’s Conde in Saudi Arabia; parliamentary elections on 16 Feb
  • 18th African fine coffees conference & exhibition in Mombasa, Kenya; 12-14 Feb

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Woodside holds on to stake in Senegal oil field as FAR challenge fails
  • Nigeria’s military razed villages in war on insurgents – Amnesty International
  • ‘Ghost’ ancestors: African DNA study detects mysterious human species
  • IMF, World Bank move pushes Somalia closer to debt forgiveness
  • South Africa must fix its public finances, Ramaphosa says
  • South Africa plans summit to finalise continental free trade agreement
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa says restructured SAA should not be dependent on bailouts
  • South Africa says will establish sovereign wealth fund
  • South Africa to procure additional renewable energy to ease shortages – Ramaphosa
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa says economic recovery has stalled due to power shortages
  • Africa Oil – Sonangol sells last spot cargo
  • Mali troops return to key northern city after 6-yr absence
  • Nigeria grants FX access for milk imports to 6 mostly foreign firms
  • Nigeria’s oil output could fall 35% without reforms – Wood Mackenzie
  • Libya reopens Tripoli’s Mitiga airport after hours of closure
  • South African rand slides, stocks dip ahead of Ramaphosa speech
  • Nigeria offers longer-term naira contracts to lure investors, shore up FX
  • Mozambique’s economy grew 2.03% in Q4 – statistics office
  • Sudan inflation jumps to 64.3% in January
  • In further bid to silence media, Somalia harassing journalists online – Amnesty
  • South African state airline SA Express under bankruptcy protection
  • Egypty approves first gold mining licence in more than a decade
  • Ethiopia passes law imposing jail terms for internet posts that stir unrest
  • Nigeria central bank offers 5-yr naira futures contract for first time
  • Africa FX – Kenyan shilling to weaken, Uganda’s to be stable
  • South Africa’s Eskom to spend up to $27 mln on severance packages
  • Thousands of Cameroonians flee to Nigeria as violence flares
  • South African airline Comair expects first half loss due to MAX grounding
  • Sudan agrees to compensate families of USS cole victims – state news agency
  • Uganda’s benchmark lending rate on hold at 9.0% for a second time
  • Blast shuts oil pipeline feeding Nigeria’s Brass oil exports – officials
  • Nigeria’s Green Africa Airways signs initial agreement for 50 Airbus A220-300s
  • Mali architect fights climate change with digital greenhouse
  • Libya’s NOC oil output at 191,475 bpd as of Feb. 12
  • South Africa’s Tongaat in talks to sell starch business

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 13 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Jump in new coronavirus cases stymies stock rally
  • Hubei province reports 14,840 new cases vs 2,015 on Feb. 11
  • US stock futures slip, dollar/yen soft
  • Nikkei down 0.2% in early trade

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises for third day as coronavirus impact may spur output cuts
  • Brent up 0.3% at $55.96 per barrel (0217GMT)
  • WTI up 0.6% at $51.46

Precious metals

  • Gold rises as jump in new virus cases weigh on equities
  • Spot gold up 0.4% at $1,571.23/oz. (0056GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,574.90/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans snap 8 sessions of gains as virus deaths jump
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $8.91-1/2 a bushel (0101GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.2% at $3.82-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures unchanged at $5.47-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa opens parliament, delivers state of the nation address
  • Uganda interest rate decision [fcst. 8.0%, prev. 9.0%]
  • Botswana’s Masisi visits Namibia
  • South Africa mining production Dec-19 [fcst. -2.8% yy, prev. -3.1%]
  • Kenya parliament screens new cabinet secretaries
  • Guinea’s Conde in Saudi Arabia
  • 18th African fine coffees conference & exhibition in Mombasa, Kenya; 12-14 Feb

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Algeria says BP did not ask to sell Amenas gas stake
  • Sudan to raise price of some petrol from mid February – ministry source
  • Sudan to continue to subsidise bread but with “justice” – trade minister
  • Nigeria LNG signs 10-yr LNG deal with Galp
  • Africa Oil – Reduced offers aid sales, Asian buyers quiet
  • Head of Sudan ruling council pledges ICC cooperation over Bashir, says right group
  • Tunisia eyes IMF talks in March on sixth review of loan deal – minister
  • South Africa’s rand falls after dismal data, stocks rise
  • OPEC says coronavirus to trim 2020 oil demand, weighs output cut
  • Kenya pledges “valley of peace” legacy as veteran leader Moi buried
  • Italy’s Edison starts exploratory drilling for gas in Egypt
  • AngloGold shifts focus as it sells South African assets to Harmony
  • South Africa retail sales down 0.4% y/y in December
  • UAE’s Dana Gas receives bids for Egypt assets
  • Zambia’s GDP to exceed 3% as copper-producer steps up spending
  • Kenya shilling weakens due to importer dollar demand
  • South Africa’s Tiger Brands says interim profit could fall 36%
  • AngloGold Ashanti to sell South Africa assets to Harmony Gold for $300 mln

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters