Monthly Archives: April 2020

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 30 Apr

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks rally on treatment hopes, currencies await ECB
  • Gilead’s remdesivir shows promise in clinical trial
  • Asian stocks hit 7-wk high, but dollar rises vs AUD & NZD
  • ECB to hold press conference at 1330GMT

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices surge over 10% amid early signs of US fuel demand recovery
  • Brent up 10.3% at $24.87 a barrel (0350GMT)
  • WTI up 14.3% at $17.21

Precious metals

  • Gold eases as coronavirus treatment hopes bolster risk appetite
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,710.26/oz. (0327GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.7% at $1,725.70/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans rise for second straight session on demand hopes
  • Soybean futures up 0.5% at $8.41-1/4 a bushel (0136GMT)
  • Corn up 0.3% at $3.15-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.5% at $5.14 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Central Bank of Kenya’s Njoroge post-MPC press briefing
  • Nigeria crude oil loading programmes awaited
  • South Africa PSCE Mar-20 [fcst. 4.3% yy, prev. 5.1%]
  • South Africa M3 Mar-20 [fcst. 6.1% yy, prev. 7.7%]
  • South Africa producer inflation Mar-20 [fcst. 3.6% yy, prev. 4.5%]
  • South Africa balance of trade Mar-20 [prev. ZAR14.2B]
  • South Africa prep for covid-19 level 4 alert level tomorrow, 1 May
  • Nigeria manufacturing PMI Apr-20 [prev. 51.1]
  • Nigeria’s Buhari chief of staff pick awaited
  • Key African countries on lockdown; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Africa Oil – Key Nigerian programme still missing
  • Eastern Libya forces pause operations after military setbacks
  • Tanzania silence on coronavirus draws criticism over secrecy
  • Nigeria, Angola cut oil export programmes to meet OPEC deal
  • South Africa rand soars as risk-buying, yield-hunt overshadows WGBI exit
  • WHO declines comment on remdesivir in covid-19, hopes for best
  • Sudan postpones key economic meeting due to coronavirus
  • Nigeria to ease lockdowns in 3 states over 6-week period
  • ‘Test and trace’ has worked for us, Ghana’s president says
  • Kenya central bank cuts benchmark lending rate again 7.0% from 7.25%
  • Zimbabwe central bank to cut main lending rate to 15% from May 1
  • WHO says it acted “quickly and decisively” on new coronavirus
  • Madagascar prehistoric ‘crazy beast’ sheds light on mammalian evolution
  • Nigeria central bank to resume FX sales as lockdown eases
  • Most Kenya regions ill-prepared to tackle covid-19 pandemic, senate warns
  • South Africa retailer Edcon to file for bankruptcy protection
  • Guinea-Bissau PM and 3 ministers test positive for covid-19
  • Tunisia to partially reopen economy from next week
  • Emerging sovereigns set for borrowing binge but weaker names struggle
  • Riot erupts at coronavirus-hit prison in Sierra Leone
  • City demolitions expose Ethiopia families to coronavirus
  • OPEC+ should focus on market share as oil demand recover – Moscow
  • Cameroon sanctuary for rescued apes threatened by covid-19
  • Tunisia says food, construction sectors to reopen next week
  • Nearly half of global workforce risk losing livelihoods in pandemic – ILO
  • Zimbabwe reopens tobacco auctions after coronavirus delay
  • TikTok, Gates pledge $20 mln to help Africa tackle covid-19
  • Kenya Safaricom dials up Google for million smart phone offer
  • Kenya shilling flat as demand from importers thins out
  • Uganda restricts truckers on busy trade route to curb coronavirus
  • South Africa PSG Group mulls unbundling stake in Capitec Bank
  • South Africa Vilage Main Reef postpones potential job cuts until lockdown ends
  • Kenya Safaricom unable to offer FY21 guidance due to coronavirus
  • Kenya Safaricom posts 13% rise in annual profit

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 29 Apr

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares extend gains as economies slowly re-open, oil rallies
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific ex Japan up 0.9%; up 3.3% week thus far
  • Australia shares up 1.2%, South Korea +1.2%
  • China markets blue-chips up 0.6%

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices climb as storage fills less rapidly than feared
  • Brent up 1.8% at $20.82 a barrel (0038GMT)
  • WTI up 8.8% at $13.43

Precious metals

  • Gold ticks up on weaker dollar; Fed decision awaited
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,708.53/oz. (0126GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,725.50/oz.

Grains

  • Corn ticks up for first time in four sessions
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.12-1/4 a bushel (0158GMT)
  • Soybeans up 0.2% at $8.33-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.3% at $5.23-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Central Bank of Kenya decides on interest rates [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.25%]
  • Nigeria’s Buhari chief of staff pick awaited
  • Key African countries on lockdown; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Mali parliament approves new mining code
  • Malawi launches $40 monthly cash transfers to combat coronavirus impact
  • IMF approves $3.4 bln emergency aid for Nigeria’s pandemic response
  • Mozambique forces killed over […] 100 insurgents in past month – govt
  • Morocco rejects accusation of police abuse in enforcing lockdown
  • Without naming Libya’s Haftar, France says unilateral action won’t solve conflict
  • South Africa state airline SA Express faces liquidation
  • Calls in Egypt for censored social media after arrests of TikTok star, belly dancer
  • Africa Oil – Nigeria programmes begin to emerge, Angolan final waited
  • South Africa union tells mineworkers to resist Harmony Gold mine restart
  • South Africa rand, stocks rally as stimulus, easing lockdowns lift sentiment
  • South Africa delivery firms switch to meds, groceries during pandemic
  • Ivory Coast presidential candidate Soro sentenced to 20 yrs in prison
  • Nigeria switches to domestic naira markets to finance 2020 budget
  • Launch of Africa free trade deal postponed due to coronavirus – official
  • South Africa mining firms work together against covid-19 as mines reopen
  • Nigeria senate approves president’s 850 bln naira borrowing scheme
  • Russia disapproves of Haftar’s power grab in Libya – Ifax cites foreign minister
  • South Sudan central bank slashes benchmark rate to 13%
  • Nigeria seeks $2.36 bln in domestic loans; external markets unfavourable
  • Algeria annual inflation unchanged in March at 1.8%
  • DR Congo locks down mining city and Zambia border town
  • Escaped ebola patient hiding in Congo militia-held area – officials
  • South Africa landlords step up assistance for retail tenants
  • Sudan inflation rises to 81.64% in March – statistics agency
  • Russia still committed to diplomatic process in Libya after Haftar power grab
  • East Libya has expelled 1,400 refugees and migrants this year: UN
  • Kenya estimates 2020 GDP growth of 2.5% but could go lower
  • Kenya shilling loses ground under pressure from end-month demand
  • Kenya economic growth slowed to 5.4% in 2019 v 6.3% in 2018 – finmin
  • Russia ‘surprised’ by Haftar’s Libya power grab – RIA cites source
  • Russia’s Novak says storage weighing on oil prices but output pact will help
  • South Africa rand weaker on rescue package funding worries

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 28 Apr

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares fall in fresh rout in crude prices
  • End in sight for some lockdowns
  • Oil suffers as USO ETF sells front-month futures
  • Markets eye Fed, ECB meetings this week

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices slide again as world runs low on storage capacity amid plunge in demand
  • Brent down 1.4% at $19.72 a barrel (0110GMT)
  • WTI down 6% at $12.01

Precious metals

  • Gold slips as lockdown easing plans lift risk appetite
  • Spot gold down 0.7% at $1,702.09/oz. (0139GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.3% at $1,719.20/oz.

Grains

  • Corn flat as USDA planting report weighs on market
  • Corn futures unchanged at $3.13-1/4 a bushel (0158GMT)
  • Soybeans up 0.1% at $8.37-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat up 0.4% at $5.27 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • IMF decides on Nigeria $3.4 bln loan request
  • Nigeria parliament resumes
  • Nigeria’s Buhari chief of staff pick awaited
  • Key African countries on lockdown; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Nigeria to begin ‘phased and gradual’ easing of lockdownsin Lagos, Abuja
  • Libya eastern leader Haftar says army to take formal control
  • WHO chief says pandemic “far from over”, worried about children
  • World Bank pandemic bonds will funnel $196 mln to 64 poor countries
  • Algeria extends coronavirus restrictions to May 14
  • Burundi vote campaign begins in shadow of violence & covid-19
  • Virtually all Equatorial Guinea oil business on hold – hydrocarbons minister
  • Rwanda in talks to delay debt payments as coronavirus hits economy – President
  • Nigeria overnight rates drop after $3.9 bln liquidity squeeze
  • US acknowledges killing 2 civilians in 2019 Somalia air strike
  • Africa Oil – Traders seek clarity around Nigeria output
  • IMF chief says expects Nigeria coronavirus aid by end of April
  • Exxon Equatorial Guinea offshore workers test positive for coronavirus – sources
  • Coronavirus stirs rancour in South Africa on democracy anniversary
  • UN raises alarm about police brutality in lockdowns
  • Uganda opposition presidential hopeful says allied lawmaker tortured, blinded
  • Senegal groups get homeless children off streets amid coronavirus
  • 30 workers on Equatorial Guinea offshore oil platform test positive for coronavirus
  • Nigeria oil export plans delayed amid talks with majors on cuts – sources
  • De Beers’ Namibia diamond venture boosts output by nearly 6% in Q1
  • After beating coronavirus, a Zimbabwe survivor lives with the stigma

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 27 Apr

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares gain as BoJ eases further; US crude slips
  • Nikkei rises on BoJ pledge to buy unlimited bonds
  • Fed & ECB to meet later in week
  • Raft of major US corporate earnings due this week
  • Oil prices fall anew as world runs short of storage space

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls as crude in US storage nears all-time high
  • Brent ended last week down 24%; WTI off around 7%
  • Crude in US storage near all-time high
  • America rig counts fall; Russia halves western sea exports
  • Algeria, Kuwait cut output in line with OPEC+ pact
  • Brent down 1.5% at $21.11 a barrel (0122GMT)
  • WTI down 7.2% at $15.72

Precious metals

  • Gold slips as risk sentiment improves, losses trimmed on recession worries
  • Spot gold down 0.3% at $1,722.61/oz. (0259GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.3% at $1,740.90/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat drops for 2nd session on upbeat European crop prospects
  • Wheat down 0.3% at $5.28-1/2 a bushel (0121GMT)
  • Corn down 0.5% at $3.21-1/4 a bushel
  • Soybeans down 0.2% at $8.38 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa Freedom Day; speeches by president & leaders of parties
  • Nigeria’s Buhari speech on covid-19 expected, chief of staff pick awaited
  • Key African countries on lockdown; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Algeria says proven oil reserves at 10 bln barrels
  • Algeria scraps customs duties, VAT on pharma products
  • Nigeria Kano state rise in deaths not due to coronavirus – govt
  • US should avoid phased approach in trade talks with Kenya – Chamber of Commerce
  • Egypt asking IMF for support during coronavirus crisis – PM
  • Egypt’s Nile Air urges govt to take stakes in private airlines
  • Total confirms 14 coronavirus cases at its Congo oil operations
  • Algeria trade deficit widens sharply on energy revenue collapse
  • Egypt state banks collect over $6 bln from high yield certificates
  • Rwanda RwandAir cuts salaries by 8-65% due to coronavirus – internal memo
  • South Africa seeking $5 bln from multilateral lenders to fight virus – Treasury official
  • G20 launches initiative for health tools needed to combat the coronavirus
  • Algeria allows businesses to reopen to ease coronavirus impact
  • Nigeria governors seek to make face masks compulsory in public
  • South Africa govt extends deadline for SAA severance deal to May 1
  • Global coronavirus death toll hits 200k
  • South Africa to reopen agric sector, allow more manufacturing, retail
  • Moody’s sees South Africa GDP shrinking 6.5% in fiscal 2020
  • IMF approves $309 mln in emergency financing to Mozambique to address coronavirus hit
  • Angola Sonangol begins selling assets in firms
  • DR Congo police arrest leader of seperatist cult after deadly clashes
  • Land Bank debt default draws attention to South Africa state firms’s finances
  • Nigeria levies $3.9 bln on banks to soak up liquidity, support naira
  • South Africa rand strengthens on govt move to open economy from May
  • Africa Oil – Sonangol offers scarce, Nigeria May exports face revisions
  • Eastern Congo militia ambush kills 16, including 12 park rangers
  • Botswana’s GDP to shrink 13% as coronavirus dims diamond industry
  • OPEC member Angola says producer cuts insufficient, more action needed
  • Russia halves Western sea oil exports in May after OPEC+ deal
  • Zambia budget thrown into disarray due to coronavirus – Lungu
  • IMF to consider Nigeria $3.4 bln request on April 28 – statement
  • Egypt Commercial International Bank buys 51% of Kenya’s Mayfair
  • South Africa says over $4 bln available from IMF, W.Bank to fight Covid-19
  • Global leaders back WHO’s plan to speed Covid-19 drugs, vaccines
  • Africa faces ‘hunger pandemic’ as coronavirus destroys jobs and fuels poverty
  • South Africa Dis-Chem rejects claim it hiked prices of surgical masks
  • South Africa FirstRand bank pulls FY20 forecast
  • South Africa finmin says more than $4 bln available from IMF, World Bank
  • South Africa 3-mth t-bill average yield slips to 4.28%
  • Uganda shilling weakens against the dollar
  • Evictions, power cuts heighten South Africa housing crisis amid lockdown
  • Kenya shilling under pressure from energy sector dollar demand
  • Pompeo urges Egypt to keep American prisoners safe from coronavirus

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel | Africa FX Monthly – May 2020

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Click here for PDF version

Currency   1 month

(29 May 2020)

3 month

(31 Jul 2020)

6 month

(30 Oct 2020)

12 month

(30 Apr 2021)

South African Rand (USD:ZAR) 18.5 18.1 18.3 17.5
Nigerian Naira (USD:NGN) 391.0 400.0 405.0 415.0
Ghanaian Cedi (USD:GHS) 5.5 5.7 5.3 6.1
Kenyan Shilling (USD:KES) 106.5 106.3 106.7 110.3
Ugandan Shilling (USD:UGX) 3,801.0 3,853.0 3,825.0 3,911.2
Tanzanian Shilling (USD:TZS) 2,323.0 2,319.0 2,335.0 2,401.0
Ethiopian Birr (USD:ETB) 33.5 33.7 34.7 36.3
Mauritian Rupee (USD:MUR) 40.3 40.9 41.1 45.2
Namibian Dollar (USD:NAD) 18.5 18.1 18.3 17.5
Botswanan Pula (USD:BWP) 12.3 12.5 12.1 13.0
Zambian Kwacha (USD:ZMW) 18.7 18.9 19.3 21.5
US Dollar Index (DXY) 100.5 100.7 100.1 100.0

macroafricaintel Weekly | 27 Apr

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
29 Apr Kenya Interest Rate, % 7.0 7.25
Uganda CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 2.5 (0.3) 3.0 (0.1)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 0.9 (0.2) 0.9 (0.0)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 1.8 (0.2) 2.2 (0.1)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 4.2 (1.2) 3.4 (1.1)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 2.2 (0.2) 2.4 (0.1)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 12.5 (1.2) 12.3 (0.8)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 4.1 (0.6) 4.1 (0.3)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Apr 2020 24.1 (3.0) 22.6 (2.9)

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 24 Apr

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares fall on coronavirus drug, economic damage concerns
  • Investors looking for medical response to coronavirus
  • Oil prices extend tentative rebound
  • US business activity plumbs record lows

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices extend rebound on output cuts, still set to end tumultous week in the red
  • Brent up 2.8% at $21.93 a barrel (0133GMT)
  • WTI up 4% at $17.16

Precious metals

  • Gold dips on profit-taking, but eyes weekly gain on economic woes
  • Spot gold down 0.6% at $1,721.15/oz. (0345GMT)
  • US gold futures little changed at $1,744.70/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans firms for fourth straight session on Chinese demand
  • Soybeans up 0.2% at $8.48-1/2 a bushel (0153GMT)
  • Soybeans up 0.7% for the week
  • Corn up 1.2% for the week
  • Wheat up 2.6% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria manufacturing PMI Apr-20 [prev. 51.1]
  • Nigeria’s Buhari chief of staff pick awaited
  • Key African countries on lockdown; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Algeria eases coronavirus lockdown for Ramadan
  • Egypt loosening some lockdown restrictions for Ramadan; coronavirus toll rises
  • South Africa to begin phased easing of lockdown on May 1
  • WHO to launch initiative to share COVID-19 drugs, tests & vaccines
  • Congo Republic sees economy shrinking 9% in 2020
  • African nations to get ventilators from Ma foundation, stress need for WHO help
  • UN agency calls for $1 trillion developing world debt write-off
  • AU envoy says virus outbreak would be a disaster for Africa
  • SEC drops inquiry into Shell’s OPL 245 deal, company says
  • South Africa Airways faces wind-down or liquidation as cash runs out
  • Africa Oil – Nigerian export programmes expected buyers elusive
  • Nigeria investigating jump in deaths in Kano city, coronavirus suspected
  • Libya turning into ‘experimental field’ for arms as war heats up – UN
  • Eni & Naturgy’s Damietta gas plant deal with Egypt falls through
  • 14 Congo seperatists killed in clashes with police, locals
  • South Africa’s Dis-Chem found to have hiked face mask prices by 261%
  • West Africa bloc recognises Embalo as Guinea- Bissau president
  • Egypt keeps night curfew for Ramadan – PM
  • South Africa’s Amplats targets $211 mln in savings to offset lockdown losses
  • South Africa – Crowds loot trucks in Cape Town a month into COVID-19 lockdown
  • Congo’s economy to shrink 2.2% because of coronavirus – IMF
  • West Africa countries to issue $1.4 bln in coronavirus bonds
  • Mideast, Africa govts failing to protect airlines – IATA
  • Nigeria governors to ban interstate movement to contiain coronavirus
  • Africa airlines could lose $6 bln in passenger revenue on 2020 – IATA
  • Liquidity mop-up by the central bank support Ugnada shilling
  • South Africa Village Main Reef says it will retrench some workers
  • Fears for Uganda zoo animals as cash dwindles in coronavirus lockdown
  • Kenya shilling holds steady against the dollar
  • South Africa itinerant wastepickers lose livelihood in lockdown
  • Botswana president, lawmakers out of quarantine after testing negative for coronavirus
  • Tullow exits Uganda project, sells stake to Total for $575 mln
  • Platinum producer Sibanye Stillwater pulls 2020 outlook, to resume South Africa ops
  • IMF approves $363 mln to help Congo fight coronavirus

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters