Monthly Archives: May 2020

macroafricaintel Weekly | 1 June

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica 

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) May 2020 3.4 (1.0) 2.5 (0.9)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) May 2020 3.6 (0.7) 3.3 (0.4)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) May 2020 2.1 (0.4) 1.6 (-0.3)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) May 2020 12.4 (1.1) 12.3 (1.0)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) May 2020 20.6 (2.3) 22.9 (2.0)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) May 2020 5.4 (1.1) 4.2 (1.3)

macroafricaintel | Africa FX Monthly – June 2020

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Click here for PDF version

Currency   1 month

(30 Jun 2020)

3 month

(31 Aug 2020)

6 month

(30 Nov 2020)

12 month

(31 May 2021)

South African Rand (USD:ZAR) 17.5 17.1 17.3 16.5
Nigerian Naira (USD:NGN) 391.0 400.0 405.0 415.0
Ghanaian Cedi (USD:GHS) 5.7 5.5 5.3 6.1
Kenyan Shilling (USD:KES) 106.5 106.3 106.7 108.3
Ugandan Shilling (USD:UGX) 3,801.0 3,823.0 3,841.0 3,857.0
Tanzanian Shilling (USD:TZS) 2,323.0 2,319.0 2,335.0 2,401.0
Ethiopian Birr (USD:ETB) 34.5 35.0 37.3 40.1
Mauritian Rupee (USD:MUR) 40.5 40.9 41.1 43.0
Namibian Dollar (USD:NAD) 17.5 17.1 17.3 16.5
Botswanan Pula (USD:BWP) 12.3 12.5 12.1 13.0
Zambian Kwacha (USD:ZMW) 18.7 18.9 19.3 21.5
US Dollar Index (DXY) 98.3 98.5 98.1 98.7

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 29 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks slip as market await Trump’s HK response
  • Sino-US tensions outweigh optimism over re-opening
  • Nikkei, ASX retreat from multi-month highs, MSCI AxJ -0.3%
  • Currencies steady; Trump press conference awaited

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices fall as US fuel demand remains weak
  • Crude, distillates stocks rise last week – EIA
  • OPEC+ considers extending 9.7 mln bpd output cuts beyond June
  • Brent down 1% at $34.93 a barrel (0106GMT)
  • WTI down 1.5% at $33.20

Precious metals

  • Gold clocks up as US-China tensions sour risk appetite
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,719.63/oz. (0049GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.4% at $1,734.60/oz.

Grains

  • Corn extends gains, set for biggest weekly jump in 7 months
  • Corn up 0.5% at $3.29 a bushel; up more than 3% for the week
  • Wheat little changed at $5.14-3/4 a bushel, up 1% for the week
  • Soybeans down 0.4% at $8.44; up 13% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa PSCE Apr-20 [fcst. 8.1% yy, prev. 7.8%]
  • South Africa M3 Apr-20 [fcst. 8.9% yy, prev. 9.5%]
  • South Africa consumer confidence Q2-20 [prev. -9]
  • South Africa trade balance Apr-20 [prev. ZAR24.25B]
  • Nigeria foreign exchange reserves May-20 [prev. $33.4B]
  • South Africa ministers brief press on covid level 3 alert regulations
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Sudan army officer dies, soldiers hurt in attack by Ethiopia militia – SUNA
  • Debt relief plans for world’s poor countries inch forward
  • G20 says 36 of poorest countries have applied for debt relief
  • Seven health workers, civilian killed in Somali village – aid group
  • Nigeria president submits revised 2020 budget to parliament
  • Burundi opposition leader files case contesting presidential vote
  • Egypt registers 1,127 new coronavirus cases, 29 deaths
  • With no deaths, Namibia to further ease coronavirus lockdown
  • Libya Tripoli govt says 30 migrants killed in revenge attack
  • Tunisia protest over jobs amid economic downturn
  • Tunisia central bank keeps key interest rate unchanged at 6.75%
  • Africa Oil – India continues to provide silver lining for Nigeria crude
  • South Africa stocks push higher despite rising US-China tensions
  • South Africa to open up economy from June under eased lockdown regulations
  • South Africa state asset manager proposes Eskom debt-to-equity swap
  • Nigeria central bank unexpectedly cuts benchmark lending rate to 12.5%
  • Rwanda ex-politician handed life jail term for genocide role
  • 27 killed in central Mali ethnic attacks, local officials say
  • South Africa retailer Mr Price has no plans to buy Jet
  • Kenya shilling to weaken, Uganda’s to strengthen; in week ahead
  • South Africa Sibanye-Stillwater detects 51 covid-19 cases at Rustenburg operations
  • Africa hit by sustained community spread of coronavirus – disease centre
  • Kenya shilling steady, expected to ease due to energy sector demand
  • Amid lockdown, Kenya medical startup brings clinic to your home
  • Uganda shilling firms on weak importer demand
  • Some medics say they are muzzled in Egypt’s coronavirus response
  • South Africa Old Mutual warns of 20% drop in first-half profit
  • South Africa rand climbs to 9-wk high vs dollar

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 28 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks gain on economic hopes, but Hong Kong risk clouds outlook
  • Shares gain in Australia and Japan
  • Investors bet on economic recovery
  • Hong Kong remains a risk

Oil Markets

  • Oil drops as surprise US stock build douses demand recovery hopes
  • Brent down 3.2% at $33.64 a barrel (0402GMT)
  • WTI down 4.4% at $31.37

Precious metals

  • Gold prices edge up as Hong Kong dispute riles China-US ties
  • SPDR gold holdings rise 0.2% on Wednesday
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,712.39/oz. (0315GMT)
  • US gold futures flat at $1,711.40/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans extend gains for third session, hit 2-wk high
  • Soybean futures up 0.3% at $8.50-3/4 a bushel (0157GMT)
  • Corn up 0.2% at $3.21 a bushel
  • Wheat up 0.2% at $5.05-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Central Bank of Nigeria decides interest rates [fcst. 13.0%, prev. 13.5%]
  • Kenya’s Kenyatta chairs ruling Jubilee meeting with top executives
  • Central Bank of Kenya’s Njoroge post-MPC press briefing
  • Nigeria MPs debate revised 2020 budget
  • South Africa publishes covid level 3 alert regulations, briefs press
  • South Africa EFF’s Malema briefs press
  • South Africa producer inflation Apr-20 [fcst. 3.6% yy, prev. 4.5%]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Libya losses from oil blockade almost $5 billion – NOC statement
  • Migrants stuck on merchant ship disembark in Liby – IOM
  • US military says Russia flew 14 MiG 29s and Su-24s to Libya
  • Burkina prosecutor says cause of death of 12 detainees unclear
  • Zambia picks French firm Lazard Freres as debt advisers
  • Sudan says 3 jailed members of ousted Bashir regime have coronavirus
  • South Africa Eskom sees lower risk of power cuts during winter
  • South Africa PSG Group to offload 28.11% stake in Capitec to shareholders
  • South Africa Airways can still be saved with funding – adminstrators
  • Zimbabwe coronavirus cases double in a day to 132 – govt
  • Russia says postpones July BRICS summit due to coronavirus
  • Rwanda genocide suspect Kabuga denounces charges as “lies”
  • South Africa plans $20.5 bln of public works to spur economy – ANC official
  • Forty villagers killed in massacre in northeast Congo
  • Namibia economy expected to contract by 6.6% in 2020
  • Africa Oil – European demand for new crude shipment still dormant
  • South Africa Eskom lost 16 bln rand in 2019/20 – treasury
  • South Africa rand falls as Sino-US friction dents risk appetite
  • West Africa food trade under strain as covid-19 shuts borders
  • French court rejects request to release Rwanda genocide suspect Kabuga
  • South Africa appoints new CEO at state asset manager PIC
  • Protesters calling for jobs halt Tunisia phosphate output
  • Kenya central bank leaves rates unchanged at 7%, says past measures are being helpful
  • South Africa mines record 320 covid-19, minister says
  • Niger lost $120 mln in arms deals over three years – govt audit
  • Rwanda genocide suspect Kabuga denounces charges as “lies”
  • Zambia 2020 maize output forecast at 3.387 mln tonnes – minister
  • Carlyle’s Africa dealmakers leave to start their own buyout firm
  • Nigeria military unlawfully detain children at rehabiliation centre for militants – Amnesty
  • Ivory Coast issues domestic bonds worth 110 bln CFA Francs
  • “No masks, no gloves”: Kenya govt under fire over quarantine centres
  • Electric motorbike gives women in rural Zimbabwe a path out of poverty
  • Kenya rolls out testing in Nairobi slums, but some fear stigma
  • South Africa Woolworths scraps dividend, reviews Australasian real estate assets
  • South Africa central bank says lenders can handle coronavirus crisis
  • Uganda shilling flat, to firm on month-end commodity and charity flows
  • Egypt Air to pay 75% of flight crew salaries in pounds temporarily
  • Cameras roll again in Nollywookd but Nigeria cinemas still dark
  • Kenya shilling weakens a notch on end-mth importer demand
  • Zimbabwe gold miners to keep more export earnings in dollars
  • South Africa Pepkor may scrap dividend as pandemic squeezes retail spending
  • Administrators for South Africa airline not aiming to resume domestic flights mid-June

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 27 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares slip as new Hong Kong tensions rise
  • Hang Seng falls 0.6%, mainland China down 0.3%
  • Nikkei down 0.2%, ex-Japan Asian loses 0.3%
  • Investors fret over US-China tensions
  • Hopes of economic re-opening support sentiment

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls on demand concerns, US-China tensions
  • Brent down 0.7% at $35.77 (0009GMT)
  • WTI down 1.2% at $33.95

Precious metals

  • Gold hovers near 2-wk low on hopes of economic recovery
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,710.01/oz. (0301GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,703.20/oz.

Grains

  • Corn up for 3rd session as US planting lags expectations
  • Corn futures up 0.4% at $3.20-1/4 a bushel (0040GMT)
  • Soybeans down 0.1% at $8.46-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.1% at $5.06-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%]
  • South Africa publishes level 3 lockdown regulations
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Suspected militia kills at least 17 in northeastern Congo
  • South Africa to let places of worship reopen from June
  • From Brazil to Kenya, coronavirus widows lose their husbands and then their land
  • WHO expects hydroxychloroquine safety findings by mid-June
  • Algeria raises 2020 budget deficit forecast to 10.4% of GDP
  • Hope ‘shattered’ for Kenya forest people three years after landmark ruling
  • Africa Oil – Nigeria’s July loading programmes show output rise
  • South Africa restaurant group Famous Brands expects revenue upturn in June
  • South Africa rand hits 8-wk high vs dollar
  • South Africa Airways aims to resume domestic flights in mid-June
  • Coronavirus to cut South Africa 2020 mining output by 8-10% – industry body
  • Nigeria Bongo oil export terminal shut for maintenance
  • South Africa Absa warns H1 profit likely to drop more than 20%
  • US military says Russia has deployed more fighter jets to Libya
  • New hotline helps families survive abuse in Congo
  • Uganda shilling little changed, may firm on charity and coffee inflows
  • Kenya shilling steady amid slight pick up in dollar demand

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 26 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Japan shares hit 10-wk peak, S&P 500 tests 3,000
  • Nikkei rises 2% to highest since early March
  • S&P 500 futures climb 1.4% to test 3,000 barrier
  • China central bank says to strenghten economic policy
  • Oil up as supply falls, US rigs hit all-time low

Oil Markets

  • Oil climbs as suppliers stick to output cuts, coronavirus lockdowns ease
  • Brent up 0.7% at $35.76 a barrel (0057GMT)
  • WTI up 2.3% at $34.00

Precious metals

  • Gold ticks up on Sino-US tensions over Hong Kong
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,732.38/oz. (0241GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,733.50/oz.

Grains

  • Weak dollar lifts soybeans out of losing streak
  • Soybean futures up 0.5% at $8.37-3/4 a bushel (0115GMT)
  • Corn unchanged at $3.18 a bushel
  • Wheat unchanged at $5.08-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria releases Q1 capital importation stats
  • South Africa briefings on 1 June covid level 3 alert move expected
  • Muslim Eid celebrations; some markets on holiday
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Ivory Coast rejects report showing rising child labour in cocoa sector
  • Morocco to try opposition editor accused of sexual assault
  • WHO fears “silent” virus epidemic unless Africa prioritises testing
  • South Africa Truworths warns on profit, UK footwear options open
  • Burundi ruling party wins presidential election
  • Libya stops nearly 400 migrants attempting to cross to Europe – IOM
  • South Africa Airways administrators can appeal layoff ruling – court
  • South Africa – AngloGold Ashanti reports more covid-19 positive cases at Mponeng mine
  • Hit by coronavirus, Kenyans turn to car boot commerce
  • South Africa Truworths considering all options for UK shoe chain office
  • Mozambique records its first death from covid-19 – health ministry
  • Ivory Coast children head back to school after virus shutdown
  • South Africa Tiger Brands eyes ‘significant’ job cuts on coronavirus
  • Barrick pays Tanzania initial $100 mln after gold shipments resume
  • Barrick’s Tanzania gold concentrate containers clear for export
  • South Africa public sector wage dispute moves to arbitration
  • Nigeria economy expands 1.87% y/y in Q1 – stats office
  • South Africa Tiger Brands reports lower H1 earnings, defers dividend

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 25 May

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares reverse early gains, eyes on China-US trade relations
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan down 0.1%
  • Hang Seng down 1.4%
  • South Korea, Australia & NZ shares up

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls as US-China tensions take toll
  • Brent down 0.5% at $34.94 a barrel (0152GMT)
  • WTI down 0.2% at $33.19

Precious metals

  • Gold down as potential Japanese stimulus boosts risk appetite
  • Spot gold down 0.4% at $1,728.06/oz. (0252GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.4% at $1,728.50/oz.

Grains (22 May)

  • US wheat, soybean futures fall with export prospects; corn edges up
  • Soybeans slump on US-China tensions
  • Wheat slips back after three successive daily gains
  • Soybeans ends down 1-3/4 cents at $8.33-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat down 7-1/4 cents at $5.08-3/4 a bushel
  • Corn slightly up ¼ cent at $3.18 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Africa Day; activities across continent
  • Nigeria GDP Q1-2020 [fcst. 1.0% yy, prev. 2.6%]
  • South Africa govt briefings on planned 1 June covid level 3 alert move
  • Muslim Eid celebrations; some markets on holiday
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Ivory Coast army joins Burkina Faso in anti-insurgent operation
  • Workers at China Moly’s Congo mine end 1-day strike over covid-19
  • South Africa president says lockdown to ease from June 1
  • AngloGold Ashanti shuts South Africa mine after finding 164 coronavirus cases
  • Libya Haftar seeks to rouse forces against Turkey
  • Zambia information minister tests positive for coronavirus
  • Trump urges Libya de-escalation on call with Erdogan – White House
  • eSwatini cuts rates further in response to virus
  • South Africa, Mozambique discuss aid to fight insurgency
  • Africa’s Muslims celebrate Eid in the shadow of covid-19
  • Namibia culls ten ‘dangerous’ elephants to protect farmers, crops
  • Egypt forces kill 21 militants in North Sinai – state TV
  • Burundi police detain more than 200 opposition election observers
  • UK court throws out Nigeria oil corruption case against Shell, Eni
  • South America is a new covid ‘epicentre’, Africa deaths still low – WHO
  • Anglo American explores sale of South Africa coal alongside spin-off – sources
  • Africa Oil – India’s IOC takes four cargoes
  • South Africa rand retreats as US-China tensions dim risk appetite
  • Libya Tripoli govt retakes more areas of capital
  • Africa music legend Mory Kante dies aged 70 in Guinea
  • World Bank sees Nigeria $1.5 bln loan decision in late July – Bank official
  • UN prosecutor: remains of Rwanda war crimes suspect found in Congo
  • Angola oil exploration evaporates as covid-19 overshadows historic reforms
  • UK’s Blair: Patchy data means Africa could use antibody tests to track covid-19
  • South Africa scientists say up to 50,000 covid-19 deaths possible
  • Uganda shilling unchanged as banks’ appetite flat
  • Egypt strategic rice reserves sufficient until October – supply ministry
  • South Africa’s Sasol full-year earnings drop of at least 20%
  • South Africa’s Nedbank warns on profit amid covid-19 crisis

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters