Monthly Archives: November 2020

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 30 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Global shares rest after ‘awesome’ month, China factories speed up
• China’s factory activity expands at fastest pace in over three years
• OPEC+ yet to find compromise on oil policy for 2021, say sources
• Oil prices slip in cautious trade ahead of OPEC+ meet
• Brent down 1% at $47.72, WTI down 1.1% at $45.05 (0355GMT)
• Vaccine optimism puts gold on course for worst month in 4 years
• Spot gold down 1% at $1,771.22/oz., futures down 0.7% at $1,775 (0452GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Ghana electoral chief Mensa briefs press on polls prep
• South Africa PSCE Oct-20 [act. 3.2% yy, fcst. 2.8%, prev. 3.1%]
• South Africa M3 Oct-20 [act. 9.8% yy, fcst. 9.3%, prev. 9.5%]
• Nigeria FX reserves Nov-20 [prev. $35.7B]
• South Africa ABSA manufacturing PMI Nov-20 [prev. 60.9]
• South Africa balance of trade Oct-20 [prev. ZAR33.5B]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• Gordhan testifies before South Africa state capture inquiry
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• Malaria death toll to exceed covid-19’s in sub-Saharan Africa: WHO
• International Red Cross says hospitals in Ethiopia city of Mekelle
low on supplies to treat wounded
• UNHCR says it hopes humanitarian access to Tigray will be granted soon
• Nigeria buries 43 farmers killed by militants, dozens missing
• Tigray forces claim to have shot down Ethiopia plane, taken town
• Allies of Burkina Faso’s Kabore retain control of parliament
• UK ‘very concerned’ by reports of fighting in Ethiopia’s Mekelle,
attacks on Eritrea
• Militant attack on farm in northern Nigeria leaves 40 dead – sources
• Ethiopia military operation in Tigray is complete, prime minister says
• Tigray leader says Ethiopia offensive on regional capital of Mekelle has begun
• Somalia: Suicide bomber kills six in Mogadishu ice-cream parlour
• Nigeria’s economy set to grow 2% in 2021 – central bank governor
• Ethiopia forces capture town, move toward Tigrayan capital, senior
armed forces officer says
• Mozambique unaware of Exxon, Total talks on LNG resource-sharing deal
• ‘Hotel Rwanda’ hero says he was kidnapped and blindfolded before arrest
• Refugees in Ethiopia’s Tigray set to run out of food: UN
• Thousands attend funeral of Sudan’s last democratically elected PM
• Analysis: How attempts to unify Ethiopia may be deepening its
divides, say analysts

Bloomberg
• Lockdowns in South Africa freed township entrepreneurs to thrive
• Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray still going on, TPLF head asserts
• Nigeria says militant group attack on rice farmers leaves 42 dead
• Eritrea capital hit by rockets from Ethiopia for 3rd time
• Somali military executes three militant group members
• OPEC faces seismic demand split as cartel plots next move
• South Africa retailers turn from China to source local clothes
• Ethiopia troops begin Tigray capital assault as deadline lapses
• Nigeria supreme court upholds oil spill award against Shell
• Nigeria sees 2% GDP growth in 2021; inflation to moderate in 1H
• Nigeria’s dollar crunch pushes naira to the weakest since 2017
• Ethiopia leader rebuffs AU bid to end civil conflict
• Ethiopia PM rejects dialogue in meeting with AU envoys
• Nigeria expects to exit recession in fourth quarter: minister
• Nigeria says World Bank loan discussions in final stage
• South Africa treasury warns of fiscal crisis over state wages
• Libya’s oil comeback has legs even if reliability is in doubt
• Burkina Faso’s Kabore wins new team in vote marred by insecurity
• Nigeria central bank rule leaves cocoa stranded at ports

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 27 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• AstraZeneca faces questions about its success rate
• Inching toward exit, Trump says he’ll leave if Biden wins electoral
college vote
• Global stocks hover near record high, oil skids on demand outlook
• Oil mixed as rally falters over supply concerns, vaccine doubts
• Brent up 9 cents at $47.89, WTI down 69 cents at $45.02 (0104GMT)
• Gold set for third weekly decline as vaccine optimism weighs
• Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,807.86/oz., futures steady at $1,806 (0335GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• AU envoys meet Ethiopia’s PM Abiy in Addis to mediate Tigray conflict, as military assault on region begins
• Central Bank of Kenya’s Njoroge briefs press on MPC outcomes
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Nigeria court hears blasphemy conviction appeals in northern city Kano
• Sixty km queues as covid turns Kenya border crossing into lorry park
• Africa faces wait for mass covid-19 vaccination – disease control group
• Analysis: Libya rival forces have stopped shooting, but they are not
pulling back
• Burkina Faso President Kabore secures re-election, preliminary results show
• Ethiopia to launch ‘final phase’ of offensive in Tigray region, says PM
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa faces no-confidence vote next week
• Sudan’s former PM Sadiq al-Mahdi dies from coronavirus in UAE
• South Africa’s Western Cape officials warn of covid-19 resurgence
• Kenya’s KCB clinches $40 mln Rwanda, Tanzania deals, eyes DRC

Bloomberg
• JPMorgan favours South Africa domestics over gold, tech stocks
• Lockdowns in South Africa freed township entrepreneurs to thrive
• Libya’s oil comeback has legs even if reliability is in doubt
• Burkina Faso Kabore wins new term in vote marred by insecurity
• Nigeria central bank rule leaves cocoa stranded at ports
• South Africa’s FirstRand, Africa’s most valuable bank, sees profit
rebound as payrolls jump
• Kenya central bank maintains benchmark rate for fifth meeting
• Nigeria to strengthen infrastructure company to boost recovery
• Rwanda seeks $15 mln to secure early coronavirus vaccines
• Uganda sugar millers seek state to help over ‘unfair competition’
• Zambia inflation accelerates to 4-yr high
• Bob Diamond’s African Bank exits two markets as it enters debt talks
• Ethiopia prime minister orders army to move on Tigray capital
• Sadiq al-Mahdi, Sudan premier turned opposition head, dies at 84
• South Africa hospitals warn of virus surge in holiday season

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 26 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asian shares advance as vaccine, recovery hopes triumph soft US data
• Hit by pandemic, Americans line up for Thanksgiving meals
• Bitcoin price drops more than $1,000 in Asian trade
• Oil rally boosted by surprise fall in US stocks
• Brent up 0.9% at $49.06, WTI up 0.7% at $46.05 (0245GMT)
• Gold gains as weak US jobs data, virus worries dim recovery hopes
• Spot gold up 0.3% at $1,811.31/oz., futures up 0.2% at $1,808.70 (0324GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• AU envoys in Ethiopia to mediate Tigray conflict, as military assault on region about to begin
• Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%]
• South Africa producer inflation Oct-20 [fcst. 2.5% yy, prev. 2.5%]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Exxon & Total in talks over Mozambique LNG resource-sharing deal – sources
• Ethiopia news agency says 10,000 people ‘destroyed’ in war
• Suspected militant attack kills four Chad soldiers
• Africa envoys head for Ethiopia as ultimatum expires for assault
• South Africa business confidence improves in fourth quarter as
lockdowns ease – survey
• Malawi ready to produce cannabis for industrial and medicinal use
• South Africa confirms going for COVAX vaccine scheme for 10% of population
• Tigrayans accused of massacre in Ethiopia war, both sides claim advances

Bloomberg
• South Africa hospitals warn of virus surge in holiday season
• The cost of shorting South Africa’s rand is higher than ever
• World’s outlier Nigeria on remittances has its currency woes to blame
• Top cocoa grower Ivory Coast says chocolatiers favor profit over farmers
• South Africa’s Mboweni says PIC willing to help Eskom resolve debt
• Burundi urges UN to push Rwanda for handover of dissidents
• Alleged member of Nigeria cybercrime ring arrested in Lagos
• Africa looks to China, Russia to boost scant vaccine supplies
• South Africa holds five days of mourning for coronavirus victims
• Pandemic created new class of Kenya poor, World Bank says
• UN fears for potential of civilian casaulties in Ethiopia
• Moody’s says Nigeria banks are more equipped for expansion push
• Coronavirus is helping Africa economies compete
• Senegal cautions against private-debt relief for Africa nations
• South Africa business mood jumps to highest in more than two years
• Kenya seeks to refinance foreign commercial debt at 5% ceiling
• South Africa stocks edge higher as upgrades boost Bidvest, Tiger
• South Africa inflation quickens to 7-mth high on food costs
• Israel should invest in its new ties to Sudan
• Ethiopia fighting leaves Sudan hosting refugees it can’t support
• South Africa could sells shares in restructured national airline

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 25 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Rejecting Trump’s foreign policy approach, Biden says ‘America is back’
• Global stocks hit record high as Biden, vaccine lift global prospects
• Oil prices rally further on vaccine optimism despite inventory rise
• Brent up 1.1% at $48.40, WTI up 1.1% at $45.38 (0247GMT)
• Gold inches higher from over 4-mth low as dollar weakens
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,809.41/oz., futures up 0.2% at $1,807.60 (0124GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Kenya’s Uhuru & Raila start BBI signatures collection campaign
• South Africa consumer inflation Oct-20 [fcst. 3.2% yy, prev. 3.0%]
• South Africa business confidence Q4-20 [prev. 24]
• Electoral Commission of Ghana chair Mensa briefs press on election preparations
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• South Africa producer inflation Oct-20 (26 Nov) [fcst. 2.5% yy, prev. 2.5%]
• Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates (26 Nov) [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• EU says Ethiopia fighting destabilising region, urges ceasefire
• Ethiopia sent home soldiers of Tigray ethnicity from UN force in
South Sudan: sources
• Niger ex-president Tandja, toppled after extending rule, dies at 82
• UN chief urges Ethiopia’s leaders to protect civilians in Tigray region
• South Africa confirms going for COVAX vaccine scheme for 10% of population
• Nigeria central bank holds benchmark lending rate at 11.5%
• Ethiopia commission says Tigray youth group killed 600 civilians in
November 9 attack
• Tigrayans accused of massacre in Ethiopia war, both sides claim advances
• Higher public debt threatens South Africa’s financial system, c.bank says
• UN alarmed at military build-up around Tigray capital
• Nigeria court jails seven for oil theft
• Mozambique, Tanzania to launch joint operations against insurgents
• Nigeria to bar those who flout covid-19 test rules from flying
• Head of Egypt rights group held in solitary confinement – lawyers
• Congo warlord sentenced to life for war crimes

Bloomberg
• Ethiopia fighting leaves Sudan hosting refugees it can’t support
• South Africa could sell shares in restructured national airline
• Nigeria starts era of micro oil refineries with tiny new plant
• South Africa to be in frontline for covid-19 vaccine, Mboweni says
• Angola plans to sell stakes in state companies to raise funds
• South Africa paid covax 500 mln rand for vaccine access
• Nigeria parallel market can’t dictate naira rate, Emefiele says
• Ivory Coast politics no deterrent for yield-chasing investors
• South Africa’s Mboweni says PIC willing to help Eskom resolve debt
• Ethiopia agency blames Tigray youth for massacre of 600 people
• Long-isolated Ethiopia to take major step to open phone market
• Nigeria central bank holds key rate, expects a short recession
• OPEC production cuts limit scope of Nigeria’s recovery
• South Africa to lift dividend guidance once out of virus crisis
• Zimbabwe gold smugglers estimated to ship $1.5 bln a year
• South Africa’s SAA needs partner to strengthen management, administrator says
• Nigeria court jails Ukrainians, Pakistanis for stealing crude
• A ‘missing’ president is sparking déjà vu in rudderless Algeria
• South Africa rising debt is ‘major’ threat to finance industry
• The world needs to head off the worst in Ethiopia
• South Africa treasury says SAA bailout still intact
• South Africa’s ANC looks to employment fund to rescue Eskom
• Rwanda finance minister warns of moderate risk of debt default

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 24 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Trump administration gives green light for Biden transition
• Biden to name Yellen to Treasury to lead US from sharp economic
downturn [Awesome!]
• New Trump rule may require some African tourists to pay up to $15,000 in bonds
• BOJ’s Kuroda rebuffs view Japan heading towards deflation
• Brent hits highest since March, spurred by coronavirus vaccine hopes
• Brent up 0.9% at $46.49, WTI up 1.1% at $43.51 (0522GMT)
• Gold dips as vaccine hopes, strong US data signal recovery
• Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,834.40/oz., futures down 0.3% at $1,833 (0105GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Central Bank of Nigeria decides interest rates [fcst. 11.5%, prev. 11.5%]
• 26th NESG Nigeria economic summit (23-24 Nov)
• Electoral Commission of Ghana chair Mensa briefs press on election preparations
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Kenya’s Uhuru & Raila start BBI signatures collection campaign (25 Nov)
• South Africa consumer inflation Oct-20 (25 Nov) [fcst. 3.2% yy, prev. 3.0%]
• South Africa producer inflation Oct-20 (26 Nov) [fcst. 2.5% yy, prev. 2.5%]
• Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates (26 Nov) [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Armed group deploys at Libya’s NOC headquarters
• Burkina Faso’s Kabore ahead in early presidential election results
• Ethiopia says Tigray capital encircled after surrender ultimatum
• Ethiopia’s Tigray forces’ leader denies regional capital encircled
• Ethiopia arrests nearly 800 suspects over ‘terrorist’ plot – TV
• South Africa corruption inquiry to file criminal complaint against Zuma
• Kenya seeks $2.3 bln loan from the IMF, treasury says
• Ethiopia says Axum airport smashed, Tigrayans face surrender deadline
• South Africa’s Naspers banks on e-commerce boom post pandemic for growth
• FIFA bans Africa football head for five years after ethics investigation
• UN urges civilian protection after Ethiopia’s 72-hr deadline for
Tigrayan capital
• Liberia electoral body says referendum on presidential terms will take place

Bloomberg
• South Africa labour minister warns of fund collapse over virus benefits
• South Africa’s refinery woes raise reliance on fuel imports
• Nigeria govt plans to only buy locally assembled cars
• South Africa banks to see limited fallout from debt downgrades
• Ghana central bank says options waning as debt hits 4-yr high
• Libya state oil firm withholds funds in feud with central bank
• Nigeria’s top bank wants to double clients with Africa expansion
• Ivory Coast tests euro debt market in first foray since pandemic
• Ghana holds key interest rate a fourth time as economy picks up
• Billionaire Bezos backs start-up in maiden Africa investment
• South Africa finance minister questions own airline bailout
• Zuma to face charges for snubbing South Africa graft probe
• South Africa’s ability to tame wage bill uncertain, Fitch says
• South Africa’s ANC looks to unemployment fund to rescue Eskom

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 23 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asian shares rise as vaccine hopes inject relief
• In latest China jab, US drafts list of 89 firms with military ties
• Oil prices extend gains on covid vaccine hopes, OPEC+
• Brent up 0.5% at $45.17, WTI up 0.2% at $42.52 (0436GMT)
• Gold rises as softer dollar, stimulus hopes outweigh vaccine optimism
• Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,873.51/oz., futures little changed at $1,871.70

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Bank of Ghana announces rate decision [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Central Bank of Nigeria decides interest rates (23-24 Nov) [fcst. 11.5%, prev. 11.5%]
• Finance minister Ahmed opens 26th NESG Nigeria economic summit (23-24 Nov)
• Electoral Commission of Ghana chair Mensa briefs press on election preparations
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama back on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• South Africa ruling ANC top executives meet [during the week] to discuss embattled scribe Magashule’s fate
• South Africa consumer inflation Oct-20 (25 Nov) [fcst. 3.2% yy, prev. 3.0%]
• South Africa producer inflation Oct-20 (26 Nov) [fcst. 2.5% yy, prev. 2.5%]
• Central Bank of Kenya decides interest rates (26 Nov) [fcst. 7.0%, prev. 7.0%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• UN urges civilian protection after Ethiopia’s 72-hr deadline for Tigray forces
• Spain to send more police to Senegal to curb illegal migration, says
foreign minister
• Nigeria general dismisses bloody protest videos as fake
• Ethiopia PM gives Tigray forces 72 hours to surrender regional capital
• Burkina Faso holds election under looming threat of violence
• Ethiopia govt says its forces have taken town around 100 km from
Tigray capital
• Militant group in North Africa names new leader to succeed Droukdel
• Search for last miner trapped at South Africa’s Gamsberg goes on,
mining halted
• Sudan cuts petrol and diesel prices for consumers – minister
• South Africa’s ‘painful’ ratings downgrade will raise borrowing
costs – minister
• Uganda’s Bobi Wine released on bail as protest death toll rises to 37
• Nigeria slips into recession, weighed down by covid-19 and oil prices
• Covid-19 exposed Kenya’s debt vulnerability though measures helped – IMF
• Ethiopia rejects African mediation, pushes toward rebel-held Tigray capital
• In Burkina Faso, voters left voiceless amid escalating violence
• Egypt arrests executive director of prominent rights group in latest crackdown
• UN says it plans for 200,000 Ethiopia refugees in Sudan
• Zimbabwe issues six new TV licences, including to defence ministry
• Zimbabwe court frees journalist charged with obstructing justice
• As covid toll among Kenya doctors jumps, one widow shares her grief
• South Africa insurer Santam to appeal coronavirus ruling
• Mozambique police say northern village, site of reported beheadings,
retaken from insurgents
• UN aid agencies call for ceasefire in Ethiopia, seek $200 mln aid
• Sierra Leone considering a warrant for the arrest of former president
• Death toll rises to 28 in Uganda protests after Bobi Wine’s arrest: police
• Jordan to open consulate in Western Sahara amid dispute
• UN Libya envoy urges UN to blacklist anyone who obstructs peace talks

Bloomberg
• Africa’s biggest fund manager is seeking new business
• Kenya seeks $2.3 bln loan from IMF to help economic recovery
• UAE calls on Ethiopia parties to end fighting, resume dialogue
• South Africa’s President Ramaphosa says the country can avoid a debt crisis
• G20: World leders praise Paris climate pact as Trump justifies exit
• G20: Trump stays mum on vaccine sharing despite pledges from others
• Tanzania, Mozambique launch joint operations against insurgents
• Ethiopia conflict sparks conflicting narratives as battle rages
• Emergin markets look to 2021 as Goldman adds to bullishe calls
• Militant group names new North Africa leader, report kidnap death
• South Africa study puts covid deaths much higher than official toll
• Militant violence casts shadow over Burkina Faso elections
• Ethiopia’s telecom auction plan falters before bidder meeting
• Madagascar expects economic turnaround in 2021 with 4.5% growth
• Disaffected Angolans prepare for fresh protest over the economy
• AU to send envoys to mediate Ethiopia conflict
• South Africa descends deeper into junk after two downgrades
• South Africa ruling party to discuss fate of Ramaphosa’s rival
• Nigeria economy falls into recession with 3.62% contraction
• Nigeria backtracks on currency rules after naira weakens
• Macron says Russia, Turkey fueling anti-France sentiment in Africa
• Clashes erupt after racism protest at South Africa school
• Cocoa extends rally to 8-mth high on Hershey trade
• Ghana’s 2nd – biggest bank sees stronger loans growth in 2021
• Ethiopia faces risk of protracted war with dissident state
• Uganda court grants bail to presidential candidate amid protests
• Tiger Brands to cut 400 jobs as new CEO strives to reduce costs

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 20 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Biden says he has picked a Treasury secretary who will please all Democrats [Yellen, perhaps?]
• Japan aims to expand CPTPP trade pact as UK, China eye membership
• Stocks wobble after Mnuchin pulls plug on Fed stimulus
• Oil prices little changed, on track for third straight weekly gain
• Brent up 0.1% at $44.25, WTI unchanged at $41.90 (0505GMT)
• Gold dips as Mnuchin recalls pandemic-related funds
• Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,864.54/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,863.80 (0359GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• AfCFTA council of ministers meet
• S&P reviews South Africa credit rating [negative outlook from stable expected]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa participates in G20 virtual summit (21-22 Nov)
• Bank of Ghana MPC meets (18-23 Nov) [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia’s Tigray rebels fire rockets into city, region govt says
• Sierra Leone considering a warrant for the arrest of former president
• WHO’s Tedros denies taking sides in Ethiopia conflict
• Ethiopia rebel forces say air strike has injured many university
students in Tigray
• Rebel leader says capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray region bombed
• As new debt crisis looms, Africa needs more than world is offering
• Nigeria should sanction CNN for report on shooting of protesters – minister
• Troops move to quell protests over Bobi Wine, 16 killed
• Ethiopia moves on Tigray capital, castigates WHO boss Tedros
• Judge rejects Zuma request to step down in South Africa graft inquiry
• Stop Ethiopia war and help civilians, Biden team urges
• Zambia seeks ‘win-win’ deal with bondholders after default, says minister
• As covid toll among Kenya doctors jumps, one widow shares her grief
• Three South Africa players isolated after one tests covid-19 positive
• South Africa retailer Pick n Pay launches mobile phone service
• A group of villagers, a migrant boat and a deadly end in Senegal
• South Africa investment conference attracts $7 bln in new pledges
• De Beers diamond sales rise as demand recovers from covid-19 hit
• Three dead and 34 injured in protests against arrest of Uganda’s Bobi Wine
• UN says more than 14,500 have fled Ethiopia to Sudan
• Ethiopia govt says rebels have committed ‘atrocities’ during 2-wk
Tigray conflict
• Outside Somalia’s Mogadishu, locusts turn farmland into desert

Bloomberg
• South Africa may edge to deeper junk rating if S&P cuts outlook
• Hershey is behind the big cocoa trade that upended N.Y. markets
• Ghana blasts ethical cocoa programs and firms refusing to pay up
• Nigeria denies CNN report saying army killed protesters
• Ethiopia army is closing in on Tigray capital, minister says
• South Africa central bank holds rate and signals next move is up
• First vaccine to be made in South Africa since mid-1990s
• Ethiopia army accuses WHO chief of backing dissident region
• Africa has only 20% of financing for energy-deficient nations
• Top South Africa banks split on dividends after Investec payout
• Libya says Total mulls more investment in nation’s oil fields
• Tanzania places China Commercial Bank under administration
• Zuma fails to win recusal of South Africa judge probing graft
• Mozambique open to support in fighting militants, Lusa says
• South Africa can avoid debt crisis, President Ramaphosa says
• Biovac, Sanofi Pasteur to make pediatric vaccine in South Africa
• Africa’s biggest bank says Ramaphosa winning corruption battle
• Absa South Africa rules out dividends with profit down 40%
• Nissan follows Volkswagen in starting car assembly in Ghana
• Ethiopia prime minister trades his Nobel peace prize for civil war
• Uganda to start building oil export pipeline in first half 2021
• Absence may make eurobond investors fonder of African issuers

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 19 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• China to cut tariffs, boost imports of high-quality goods and
services: Xi says
• Sliding dollar steadies as virus worries persist
• Asia stocks ease from highs, bonds count on Fed support
• Wall Street dives as shutdown worries overshadow vaccine hopes
• Oil prices ease a rising covid-19 cases outweigh vaccine optimism
• Brent down 0.4% at $44.17, WTI down 0.7% at $41.53 (0345GMT)
• Gold eases as dollar firms, vaccine progress weighs
• Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,867.43/oz., futures down 0.4% at $1,866.60 (0418GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• AfCFTA council of ministers meet (20 Nov.)
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues; Zondo to rule on Zuma recusal application
• Bank of Ghana MPC (18-23 Nov) [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Coronavirus cases in Africa surpass the 2 mln mark: Reuters tally
• Need to treat all creditors equally led to Zambia default, c.bank says
• Congo declares end of ebola outbreak, sees lessons for covid fight
• Ethiopia says disarms Tigray peacekeepers in Somalia over security
• Ethiopia troops push for regional capital, rebels promise ‘hell’
• Ethiopia seeks arrest of 76 military officers linked to Tigray leaders
• Uganda politician and pop star Bobi Wine says he has been arrested
• Oil companies tighten Nigeria security as protests, job losses stoke tension
• Consortium pulls plug on South Afriac’s Thabametsi coal plant
• Malawi police arrest pastor wanted in South Africa for fraud, money laundering
• In U-turn, Kenya plans to defer $690 mln in debt repayments under
G20 intiative
• Tigray peacekeepers in Somalia disarmed by Ethiopia colleagues, sources say
• Proposal to nationalise South Africa central bank sends ‘negative
signal’ – treasury
• Vedanta Zinc suspends mining at South Africa’s Gamsberg mine after accident
• South Africa court rules insurer Santam should pay hotel group’s
virus-related claim
• Congo declares end of ebola outbreak that killed 55
• Morocco PM says Western Sahara wall at centre of dispute completed
• UN pulls $100 mln from emergency fund in bid to avert famines

Bloomberg
• Ethiopia conflict precipitates mounting humanitarian crisis
• Riots erupt in Uganda after arrest of presidential candidate
• South Africa will avoid debt crisis, President Ramaphosa says
• Awaiting South Africa bailout, land bank locks out farmers
• Zambia central bank hold key interest at record low 8%
• Ghana denies interfering in gold fund probe after official quits
• Kenyans fear they’re on their own as covid-19 surges again
• Santam loses virus-related case in test for South Africa insurers
• Ethiopia freezes assets of fund accused of backing war in Tigray

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 18 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• World shares slip after US retail sales dampen vaccine euphoria
• US retail sales lose speed, manufacturing picks up in October
• Container freight rates soar on consumer goods boom, supply chain kinks
• Oil mixed as hopes OPEC+ delays supply increase offset demand concerns
• Brent up 0.1% at $43.78, WTI down 0.1% at $41.40 (0430GMT)
• Gold inches lower as Covid-19 vaccine optimism weighs on appeal
• Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,877.39/oz., futures down 0.5% at $1,875.30 (0344GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa hosts 3rd SA investment summit
• 4th meeting of AfCFTA senior trade officials; council of ministers meet on 20 Nov.
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues; Zondo to rule on Zuma recusal application
• South Africa retail sales Sep-20 [fcst. -0.3% yy, prev. -4.2%]
• Kenya’s Kenyatta & Odinga launch BBI signatures collection (19 Nov)
• South Africa central bank MPC (17-19 Nov) [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• Bank of Ghana MPC (18-23 Nov) [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia accues Tigray forces of destroying bridges leading to
regional capital
• Ethiopia claims Tigray victories, says army marching to state capital
• Nigeria’s president vows to prevent repeat of anti-police brutality protests
• US condemns Tigray leaders for attacking Eritrea
• Army patrol discovers 29 bodies in eastern Congo
• Trump could withdraw troops from Somalia as part of global pullback
• Ethiopia says its troops marching on Tigray capital
• Africa governance worsens for first time in a decade: survey
• Endeavour to become West Africa’s biggest gold miner with $2 bln Teranga deal
• Full-scale humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ethiopia – UN refugee agency
• Derivatives committee asked to rule on Zambia debt non-payment
• Nobel body urges peace in Ethiopia where laureate engaged in conflict
• After continental retreat, South Africa retailers strain for profits at home
• Ethiopia carries out air strikes in Tigray, PM says surrender ultimatum over
• Germany files espionage charges against Egypt-born man

Bloomberg
• It’s time to buy South Africa Inc., nation’s no.2 pension fund says
• Zimbabwe plans to abandon fixing prices for commodities
• Cocoa’s OPEC turns New York market into trader battleground
• South Africa state arms maker fires workers after bailout snub
• South Africa signs plan to support $908 mln sugar industry
• Morocco sets hard line over ending Western Sahara fighting
• OPEC+ voices caution on oil market as it mulls output-hike delay
• Nigeria says Air France, KLM, Lufthansa to resume flights
• Pastor’s escape strains South Africa ties with Malawi
• Billionaire Gertler buys royalty rights in Congo cobalt project
• Perenco in talks to take majority share of Ivory Coast oil well
• Ivory Coast & Ghana may seek to boost cocoa prices
• South Africa study puts covid deaths much higher than official toll

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 17 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Coronavirus bigger risk to US economy than election dispute: Reuters poll
• Asian stocks edge higher after vaccine hopes push Wall Street to record highs
• Oil prices edge higher ahead of OPEC+ meeing, vaccine hopes
• Brent up 0.4% at $43.98, WTI up 0.3% at $41.47 (0104GMT)
• Gold inches higher on softer dollar, virus woes: vaccine hopes cap gains
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,890.27/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,889.70 (0327GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa participates in 12th BRICS virtual summit
• OPEC+ JMMC meeting; weighs 3-mth cuts extension [final decision on 1 Dec]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues; Zondo to rule on Zuma recusal application
• South Africa central bank MPC (17-19 Nov) [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• Bank of Ghana MPC (18-23 Nov) [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Africa governance worsens for first time in a decade: survey
• Uganda leader meets Ethiopia official, urges talks
• Tigray leader urges international censure of Ethiopia offensive
• ‘Give us time,’ Ethiopia says of Tigray offensive
• Ethiopia resists mediation as it bombs Tigray capital
• Nigeria ex-president goes to Ethiopia amid mediation push
• EU says won’t monitor Uganda election, limiting poll’s international scrutiny
• Schools close and student pregnancies rise in lockdown Kenya
• Ethiopia says Tigray town seized, war embroils Eritrea
• Ethiopia denies mediation over Tigray underway in Uganda
• South Africa’s Zuma says graft inquiry biased, seeks judge’s recusal
• Zambia on track for protracted debt overhaul as creditors slam lack
of engagement
• Egypt showcases scores of 2,500 year old coffins
• eSwatini’s prime minister tests positive for covid-19
• Pro-Sisi party in commanding position in Egypt parliamentary polls
• Ethiopia seizes town in Tigray, says 10,000 prisoners missing
• US condemns Tigray forces’ attacks on Eritrea
• Gunmen in western Ethiopia kill at least 34 people in bus attack,
rights body says
• Number of refugees fleeing Ethiopia to Sudan surpasses 20,000 – UN

Bloomberg
• Zimbabwe blueprint sees economy expanding 5% a year through 2025
• Ivory Coast cocoa harvesting picks up after election unrest
• Zambia sees deal with Glencore over Mopani copper within a month
• Nigeria plans to start a bridge bank to aid struggling lenders
• Nigeria investors tipped to ignore signs stocks are overheating
• Nigeria inflation rate rises on surging food costs
• Zambia finance minister says bondholders to blame for default
• Warning to veteran politicians as Libya talks to yield govt
• Endeavour Mining to acquire rival Teranga Gold for $1.86 bln in West
Africa expansion
• South Africa’s Sasol $12.8 bln US project reaches finish with last unit
• Kenya doctors threaten strike as virus infections, deaths surge
• South Africa’s Vodacom resets targets with post-pandemic light on horizon
• South Sudan to use its first IMF funding to stabilize currency

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg