Monthly Archives: November 2020

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 16 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asian stocks hit record peak as vaccine hopes dampen virus fears
• China’s factory output beats forecasts as Asia shakes off covid slump
• Oil climbs higher on China, Japan rebound, hopes of OPEC+ supply curb
• Brent up 1% at $43.22, WTI up 1.4% at $40.67 (0204GMT)
• Gold hits 1-wk peak as softer dollar, worsening pandemic lift appeal
• Spot gold up 0.5% at $1,896.85/oz., futures up 0.5% at $1,894.90 (0329GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Nigeria inflation Oct-20 [fcst. 14.0% yy, prev. 13.7%]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• South Africa central bank MPC (17-19 Nov) [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• US condemns Tigray forces’ attacks on Eritrea
• Gunmen in western Ethiopia kill at least 34 people in bus attack,
rights body says
• Number of refugees fleeing Ethiopia to Sudan surpasses 20,000 – UN
• Ethiopia PM says the country can achieve objectives of Tigray
operation ‘by itself’
• In escalation of Ethiopia war, Tigray leader says his forces fired
rockets at Eritrea
• Rockets fired at Eritrea capital from Ethiopia, diplomats say
• Fleeing Tigray war, Ethiopians cross river to Sudan
• Demonstrators demand better conditions for Canary Islands’ migrant arrivals
• ‘The soldiers kept shooting’: witnesses testify in Lagos protest probe
• Zambia will not pay eurobond coupon before grace period expires – finmin
• France says it has killed senior militant operative in Mali
• Ethiopians fleeing to Sudan describe air strikes & machete killings in Tigray
• Polisario leader says Western Sahara ceasefire with Morocco is over
• Ethiopia claims big advance in Tigray, Amnesty reports mass killing
• Tigray says two missile strikes on Ethiopia sites targeted military
• After Ivory Coast election, fighting comes to a once-calm town
• IMF says any aid to Zambia requires steps to restore debt sustainability
• Ethiopia: Tigray conflict risks spiralling out of control: UN’s Bachelet
• US condemns ‘massacre of civilians’ in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• Refugee exodus to Sudan swells as war crimes feared in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• 20 migrants drown in Libya shipwreck, fourth accident this week
• Ethiopia denies boming Tigray’s Tekeze power dam
• Senior South Africa ANC leader Magashule granted bail in graft case
• War crimes feared in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict
• UN says more than 14,500 have fled Ethiopia to Sudan
• Zambia eurobond holders reject payment deferral request – finance ministry
• Ethiopia names new Tigray head as conflict boils
• Zambia heads toward Africa’s first post-covid default as debt deadlines loom
• Tanzania re-elected leader keeps finance minister Mpango in new govt
• AU chief sacks security head after Ethiopia questions loyalty
• Egypt: Man sets himself on fire in Cairo’s Tahrir square
• Nigeria case against JP Morgan over OPL 245 oil deal to go to trial
• Egypt transgender woman faces uphill battle against stigma

Bloomberg
• Asia Pacific nations sign the world’s biggest trade deal
• South Sudan to use its first IMF funding to stabilize currency
• SBM Bank (Mauritius) to appoint Servansingh as chairman, Week-End says
• Tigray confirms Eritrea strike as Ethiopia conflict spreads
• OPEC’s got to play the coronavirus waiting game
• Ethiopia Tigray leader confirms firing missiles at Eritrea
• OPEC+ gets scant relief from vaccine as it meets to discuss cuts
• Ethiopia arrests militant suspects planning attacks
• US Army names soldiers killed in Egypt helicopter crash
• Polisario quits Western Sahara 30-yr ceasefire after clashes
• Egypt unveils huge find of ancient coffins and gilded statues
• Ethiopia says rockets fired in Amhara region as violence spreads
• Kenya’s biggest tea grower 4-mth output rises 3.9%
• Nigeria central bank dollar sales fails to stop naira weakening
• WHO approves first ever vaccine for emergency use against polio
• Nigeria President Buhari signs amended banking bill into law
• South Africa Limpopo private sector coal plant project may be abandoned
• G20 back new rules to deepen debt help to poor hit by virus
• Ethiopia withdraws thousands of troops from neighbouring Somalia
• Zambia poised to be first Africa sovereign default in pandemic
• Zambia closer to default after bondholders refuse relief
• Morocco moves army to end Western Sahara blockade, Le360 reports
• South Africa ruling party official charged with graft, fraud
• France forces kill militant group commander in Mali
• Multichoice, Vivendi to team up on new Africa TV productions
• Tanzania targets annual average GDP growth of 8% over five years
• Old Mutual sees resilient South Africa consumers aiding growth
• Scores of civilians massacred in northern Ethiopia, Amnesty says
• Zambia’s plan to sell billionaire’s mines stuck in legal mire
• South Africa’s Eskom ordered to rectify pollution issues at 3 power plants
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 13 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Republicans urge Trump to allow Biden briefings as US election
challenges sputter
• No voting system deleted or lost votes in US election: security groups
• Asian stocks fall as virus spread accelerates
• China president Xi Jinping decided to halt Ant’s IPO: WSJ
• Oil falls as Covid-19 spike stokes fuel demand fears; still set for
big weekly gain
• Brent down 0.8% at $43.17, WTI down 1.0% at $40.72 (0118GMT)
• Gold holds steady as virus wave offsets vaccine hopes
• Spot gold steady at $1,876.92/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,874.50 (0044GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Nigeria finmin Ahmed chairs finance bill 2020 public consultation
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• UN says 11,000 have fled Ethiopia to Sudan, 50% of them children
• Explosion in Ethiopia’s capital injures one man
• Nigeria case against JP Morgan over OPL 245 oil deal to go to trial
• Ethiopia says 242 TPLF activists caught planning ‘to sow chaos’
• Egypt transgender woman faces uphill battle against stigma
• Nigeria expects more Benin Bronze returns as soon as next year
• Ghana’s former president Jerry John Rawlings has died at the age of 73
• Ethiopia claims big advance in Tigray, suffering worsens
• 8 peacekeepers, including 6 Americans, killed in Egypt’s Sinai
helicopter crash
• South Africa’s unemployment rate reaches record high above 30%
• South Africa president says travel to all countries will be allowed
• Ethiopia parliament lifts prosecution immunity for Tigray leader
• Zimbabwe journalist Chin’ono denied bail after 2nd arrest
• ‘Humanitarian e-commerce’ thrives in Somalia amid pandemic
• Ethiopia to set up ‘transitional’ rule in parts of Tigray: minister
• 7 Burkina Faso soldiers killed in ambush of presidential election
• Ethiopia claims ‘liberation’ of west Tigray, humanitarian crisis looms
• Kenya’s KCB to restructure a fifth of its loans this year, says CFO
• Petra Diamonds investigates charges Tanzania subsistence miners abused
• Marubeni to pull out of South Africa coal-fired power plant project
• Ethiopia’s PM says bodies of tied military personnel found in Tigray
• Ivory Coast president and opposition to pursue talks amid deadly standoff
• South Africa should aim to cover 10% of population via COVAX, advisors say
• Food aid, medical supplies blocked from Ethiopia’s Tigray, UN warns
• More than 10,000 people fled Ethiopia conflict to Sudan, official says

Bloomberg
• Yield mania gives breathing space to indebted emerging markets
• Zambia stares down the default barrel with key creditors to vote
• South Africa to deport Dutch arms dealer tied to Charles Taylor
• South Africa’s Eskom ordered to rectify pollution issues at three power plants
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment
• South Africa’s Old Mutual CEO sees strong recovery for insurance firm
• Egypt cuts rates for 2nd time in boost for virus-hit economy
• Biggest Kenya bank pauses Ethiopia entry on virus uncertainty
• JP Morgan to reveal bankers who approved suspicious Nigeria oil payments
• Nigeria stocks surge most since 2015, trigger circuit breaker
• Zimbabwe’s Hopewell Chin’ono denied bail over graft claims
• Ghana ex-military ruler turned democrat, Rawlings dies age 73
• ‘We can’t be beaten’, says president of rebel Ethiopia region
• 7 peacekeepers killed in Egypt Sinai helicopter crash, officials say
• Ethiopians donate blood, money to back incursion in rebel region
• G-20 looks to deepen debt relief drive with China’s coordination
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment
• Ghana forces Eni to merge oil field with local firm’s discovery
• South Africa’s unemployment rate swings back to 17-yr high
• IEA cuts oil demand outlook as vaccines won’t rescue market soon
• Africa’s largest economy Nigeria to rectify continent-wide trade zone
• Egypt’s focus on local sugar is bad news for European exports
• AU appeals for calm in disputed Sahara region
• South Africa takes steps to stop regional covid surge spreading
• Nigeria probes protesters under terror-financing law
• Boeing confident in China with thousands of jet orders forecast
• Zimbabwe under investor pressure to end gold sales monopoly

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 12 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Trump presses on with uphill legal struggle
• Wall Street is not overly worried Trump can overturn election
• Asian stocks hold vaccine-driven gains after US defensive shift
• Oil keeps climbing on hopes OPEC+ will hold back supply as Covid-19 cases rise
• Brent up 0.7% at $44.11, WTI up 0.8% at $41.80 (0130GMT)
• Gold muted as firmer dollar, vaccine hopes dim safe-haven appeal
• Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,863.70/oz., futures flat at $1,862.20 (0048GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%]
• South Africa releases labour statistics
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Rwanda genocide suspect Kabuga pleads not guilty at UN court
• Ivory Coast president & opposition to pursue talks amid deadly standoff
• Thousands flee Ethiopia conflict, anti-Tigray protests planned
• From Nobel Prize to fighting former comrades: Ethiopia’s PM Abiy
• Israel to send first delegation to Sudan on Sunday to firm up
normalisation – source
• Greece, Egypt to welcome ‘more decisive’ US involvement under Biden,
Greek PM says
• South Africa’s ANC says it has not asked Magashule to step down over
arrest warrant
• Thousands of refugees flee to Sudan from Ethiopia conflict
• Zambia’s bondholders must accept write-downs – campaign group
• Botswana signs agreement with global vaccine scheme for 20% of population
• Killing of Libya dissident underscores stakes in peace talks
• South Africa regulator not planning to decide on nuclear procurement
on Wednesday
• Explosion in Ethiopia’s capital injures one man
• UN urges Mozambique to investigate reported massacres, beheadings
• Endeavour in Teranga merger talks as West Africa mining deals hot up
• Tanzania opposition presidential candidate leaves for Belgium
• Post-election clashes in Ivory Coast kill 3, wound dozens, sources say
• Ethiopia arrests 17 military officers for disrupting communications

Bloomberg
• Rivals in war-torn Libya agree on path to elections in 18 months
• Uganda activists turn to EU to save forest with chimpanzees
• OPEC+ focuses on delay to oil output hike of 3 to 6 months
• Nigeria billionaire plans to dig platinum mine in Zimbabwe
• Zimbabwe hikes civil servants’ pay 40% to ease costs pressure
• Ivory Coast opposition wants political prisoners freed before talks
• One of the biggest ever diamonds has been found in Botswana
• Nigeria mulls social media rules as EndSARS protests go online
• Ghana inflation edges closer to target as rate drops third month
• Libya oil output at 1.1 mln barrels a day toughens OPEC task
• Ethiopia clashes leave 550 dead; AU urges ceasefire
• South Africa’s Sasol rejects demand for shareholder resolutions on climate
• Zambia on brink of default with creditors set to refuse relief

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 11 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Republicans hint at limited time for Trump to make his post-election case
• Biden says nothing will stop transition as Trump vows new legal action
• Stocks up as vaccine shields against 2nd-wave worries
• Oil gains after stockpile draw amid hopes for coronavirus vaccine
• Brent up 0.7% at $43.92, WTI up 0.9% at $41.72 (0213GMT)
• Gold inches higher on stimulus hopes, virus concerns
• Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,879.31/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,878.70/oz. (0054GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa’s ruling ANC scribe Magashule to be arrested over fraud & corruption allegations
• Kenya county governors meet Kenyatta on BBI; to make new proposals
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone & Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Post-election clashes in Ivory Coast kill 3, wound dozens, sources say
• Ethiopia arrests 17 military officers for disrupting communications
• Ethiopia offensive kills 550 ‘extremists’ in Tigray: TV
• South Africa police issue arrest warrant for top ANC official Magashule
• Sun International says all South Africa operations have recommenced
• Ethiopia sets conditions for peace talks with Tigray
• Several thousand fleeing conflict in Ethiopia to Sudan: official
• Ivory Coast cocoa purchases hit again by post-election unrest
• Battle-hardy Tigray back in spotlight as Ethiopia conflict flares
• Former Mali president Toure, democratic icon toppled in coup, dies at 72
• Tunisia prime minister says coronavirus deaths may reach 7,000
• Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict worsens, refugees flee to Sudan
• Africa bloc urges ceasefire as Ethiopia claims airport in Tigray
• Ethiopia’s Tigray leader says Eritrea sending troops over border
• Eritrea denies troop incursion into Ethiopia’s Tigray
• South Africa energy regulator puts nuclear procurement on meeting agenda
• Mozambique files charges against ex-finmin over $2 bln debt

Bloomberg
• Zambia on brink of default with creditors set to refuse relief
• Zimbabwe is ‘ready’ to help Mozambique fight militants
• Tanzania opposition leader leaves for exile in Belgium
• EU funds biometric tech used for returning Africa migrants
• Africa reacts to Biden winning the US election
• South Africa president tightens grip as main rival faces trial
• Ethiopia to talk with Tigray leaders only once weapons destroyed
• South Africa’s Sasol rejects demand for shareholder resolutions on climate
• Ethiopia police drawn into nation’s deepening ethnic strife
• South Africa issues warrant of arrest for ANC senior official Magashule
• South Africa manufacturing decline slows on food and drinks
• Mali president who led transition to democracy dies at 72
• Zimbabwe to pick adviser by Christmas to help raise $3.5 bln
• Hedge fund blocks Nigeria in $10 bln P&ID dispute
• Egypt inflation at highest since June on education costs

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Markets rally as investors applaud vaccine development
• Yen pressured as vaccine hopes boost risk appetite
• China inflation fails to perk up amid sluggish demand
• Oil falls as near-term demand worries overshadow Covid-19 vaccine relief
• Brent down 1.3% at $41.86, WTI down 1.5% at $39.69 (0139GMT)
• Gold prices gain some ground on stimulus hopes
• Spot gold up 0.5% at $1,871.81/oz., futures up 0.8% at $1,869.40 (0136GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Govt clarification on Nigeria border opening expected [After Dangote Cement reportedly granted exemption]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa participates in US – SA business & investment roundtable
• Nigeria oil sector workers down tools
• South Africa manufacturing production Sep-20 [fcst. -9.0% yy, prev. -10.8%]
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone
& Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopians including soldiers flee escalating conflict to Sudan
• US criticized for police brutality, racism at UN rights review
• Nigeria authorities return police brutality activist’s passport
• China offers backing to Guinea president after disputed election
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara wins 3rd term, final results show
• As Africa penguin population dwindles, researchers plan new colony
• Hundreds killed in escalating Ethiopia conflict, sources say
• Magnate billionaire to run for leadership of Africa football
• Wounded Libya fighters watch Tunis peace talks with cautious hope
• South Africa investors exit local coal project on climate concerns
• Pfizer, BioNTech say their covid-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective
• Ethiopia not heading for ‘chaos’ over Tigray operation, says PM
• Sudan partially closes border with Ethiopia – agency
• In Nigeria, looters target govt warehouses stocked with Covid-19 relief
• Shifting militant tactics curb development in Egypt’s North Sinai
• Concern of outright war in Ethiopia grows as PM presses military offensive
• Ethiopia prime minister fires top officials as conflict in Tigray
region escalates

Bloomberg
• Oil rally loses shine as virus surge offsets vaccine optimism
• South Africa plans short-dated bond to lower borrowing costs
• Nigeria exempts Dangote Cement from land border closure
• Mozambique charges ex-finmin over $2 bln debt scandal
• South Africa regulator to consider approving nuclear power plan
• Profit drops at Kenya’s biggest company on stalling economy
• Ivory Coast unrest hurts cocoa supply as farmers cheer good weather
• Ivory Coast constitution council confirms Ouattara’s re-election
• Ethiopia conflict sparks bond slump amid EM rally
• Ethiopia Airlines may submit SAA management proposal this week
• Rising virus cases spurs South Africa to consider renewed curbs
• South Africa stocks rise as Biden win amps up risk appetite
• Libya unity bid gains momentum as rivals gear up for new talks
• J&J covid-19 vaccine trial cleared to begin in South Africa
• Ethiopia replaces top security officials as conflict escalates

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 9 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Investors celebrate Biden winning US presidency
• Brent crude tops $40, dollar hit 10-wk low; after Biden clinches US presidency
• Brent up 2.1% at $40.27, WTI up 2.3% at $37.98 (0101GMT)
• Gold prices firm as dollar eases after Biden win
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,953.45/oz., futures up 0.2% at $1,955.60 (0049GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone & Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• South Africa SACCI business confidence Oct-20 [prev. 85.7]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa manufacturing production Sep-20 [fcst. -9.0% yy, prev. -10.8%] (10 Nov)
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia’s Tigray region’s president says it is good to try to negotiate
• Ethiopia minister fires top officials as conflict in Tigray region escalates
• Nigeria central bank freezes accounts of police brutality protesters
• In escalating conflict, people of Ethiopia’s Tigray risk displacement, UN says
• Sudan partially closes border with Ethiopia – agency
• Ivory Coast opposition leader arrested for creating rival govt
• Ethiopia air strikes in Tigray will continue, says PM as civil war risks grow
• Ivory Coast opposition leaders face prison for forming rival govt – prosecutor
• Ethiopia’s Abiy vows to disarm ‘fugitives from justice’ in Tigray region
• Cameroon buries 7 children killed in school shooting
• De Beers-owned Debswana to close diamond mine on weak demand – union leader
• UN chief ‘deeply alarmed’ by armed clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• South Africa eases defence firm Denel’s bailout terms
• IMF, World Bank postpone planned 2021 meeting in Morocco by one year
• Barrick sees no risk to mining conventions in Mali, hikes dividend
as gold soars
• Coronavirus knock-on effect hitting vital health services in Africa: WHO
• Ethiopia mobilises for war in northern region

Bloomberg
• Ethiopia replaces top security officials as conflict escalates
• Biden win emboldens bulls as emerging markets scream buy
• J&J covid-19 vaccine trial cleared to begin in South Africa
• South Africa’s economic blueprint lacks funding details, Mbeki says
• Guinea constitutional court validates Conde electoral victory
• Libya reviewing oil output passes million-barrel milestone
• Nigeria central bank gets court order to block protest accounts
• Renewable energy drive threatens 120,000 South Africa jobs
• Tanzania opposition leader seeks refuge with Germany ambassador
• Clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray region put horn of Africa on edge
• Ivory Coast accuses opposition leaders of terrorism after vote
• South Africa treasury denies that budget cuts will stifle growth
• Nedbank analyst who predicted South Africa rand rally says it’s time to pause
• Sewage tests show virus cases rise in South Africa
• Airtel Africa plans tower sales to reduce $3.5 bln debt
• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals slow on election unrest, fuel supply woes
• Shipping camels to China is goal of Sudan’s $140 mln port
• World’s hunger problem means some nations risk famine, UN says
• Nigeria banks to fail stress tests should economic slump deepen
• Tanzania finalizing permit for its first rare-earth metals mine

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 6 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Vote counts push Biden closer to victory as Trump falsely claims
election being ‘stolen’
• Trump campaign loses legal fights in Georgia & Michigan, vows Nevada lawsuit
• Trump lawsuits unlikely to impact outcome of US election, experts say
• Wall Street rallies as investors eye split US Congress
• US oil drops as pandemic rages while presidential vote counting continues
• WTI down 0.8% at $38.47 (0040GMT), Brent down 0.7% in previous session.
• Gold eases on stronger dollar; investors eye close US election outcome
• Spot gold down 0.4% at $1,940.86/oz., futures down 0.1% at
$1,944.70/oz. (0105GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Ethiopia enters state of war, as Tigray regional forces attack federal ones
• Ghana election chief answers questions in parliament on polls
preparedness (7 Nov)
• Results of US presidential elections awaited
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa FX reserves Oct-20 [prev. $54.42B]
• Harrassment of opposition in Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Guinea & Ivory
Coast in focus; rising risk of civil war in Ethiopia also
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia mobilises for war in northern region
• 11 kidnapped teachers freed in Cameroon
• Africans amused but alarmed by US election’s aftermath
• Egypt sentences dozens to jail over 2013 sit-in
• Ethiopia’s Abiy resists diplomatic pressure to halt offensive
• Doctor’s self-funded test lab leads way in Somalia’s Covid fight
• Ivory Coast & Guinea election crises spur fears of prolonged unrest
• Mauritius oil spill clean-up likely to be completed by January: ship owner

Bloomberg
• Nigeria banks to fail stress tests should economic slump deepen
• IMF, World Bank postpone late-2021 Morocco meeting by a year
• Tanzania president sworn for 2nd term after disputed election
• Tanzania finalizing permit for its first rare-earth metals mine
• A stalled conflict in Sahara risks reigniting as trade blocked
• Ethiopia army plans further strikes in restive Tigray region
• Why Ethiopia’s internal tensions risk boiling over
• Renewable energy drive threatens 120,000 South Africa jobs

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 5 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Biden approaches 270 as Trump sues to stop count
• Investors welcome US election gridlock, retreat from ‘blue wave’ bets
• Asia shares follow Wall Street higher on US gridlock bets
• Oil down 1% as US dollar firms on bets of split White House, Senate
• Brent &WTI down 1% at $40.82 & $38.75 respectively (0141GMT)
• Gold steady as investors eye US election outcome
• Spot gold little changed at $1,904.66/oz., futures up 0.5% at
$1,905.50/oz. (0111GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Ghana election & security chiefs answer questions in parliament over polls preparedness
• Tanzania’s Magufuli inauguration, after re-election
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa chairs inaugural meeting of SOEs council
• Results of US presidential elections awaited
• Nigeria’s Lagos judicial panel inquiry on SARS continues
• Harrassment of opposition in Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Guinea & Ivory Coast in focus; rising risk of civil war in Ethiopia also
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa expected to address nation on Covid during the week
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ex-rebel calls on Ivory Coast army to mutiny, join opposition
• Ivory Coast police surround opposition leaders’ houses
• Police brutality activist says she was barred from leaving Nigeria
• Ivory Coast & Guinea election crises spur fears of prolonged unrest
• Kenya extends Covid-19 night curfew to Jan.3
• Ethiopia sends army into opposition Tigray region, heavy fighting reported
• South Africa commission condemns killing of activist who opposed coal mine
• Eleven Cameroon teachers kidnapped in region ravaged by insurgency
• Netflix to debut its first Egypt original series ‘Paranormal’
• Malawi says it will open Israel embassy in Jerusalem
• Over 40 feared dead after boat carrying Mozambique conflict victims sinks
• Zimbabwe police again arrest journalist critical of govt

Bloomberg
• Red Falcon, missiles prioritized for South Africa defense needs
• Botswana wants Angola’s exiled elephants to return home
• France urges political dialogue in Ivory Coast following vote
• Kenya suspends political rallies after ‘most tragic’ virus month
• Renewable energy drive threatens 120,000 South Africa jobs
• Old Mutual sees too much bad news priced into South Africa stocks
• Top Nigeria bank sued for blocking account linked to protesters
• South Africa stocks erase gains as tight US vote hits rand
• Ethiopia prime minister orders army to respond to Tigray attacks
• Lawyer accused of bribery in ICC Kenya case is in detention

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 4 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Trump & Biden split first states to be called as US polls begin to close
• Asian shares turn skittish as early results show tight election
• Investors bet US stocks swings will calm down after election day
• Oil climbs as US stockpiles shrink, but election uncertainty looms over market
• Brent up 1.6% at $40.35, WTI up 1.9% at $38.37 (0157GMT)
• Gold steadies as investors eye US election results
• Spot gold little changed at $1,906.71/oz., futures up 0.1% at
$1,911.60/oz. (0045GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Results of US presidential elections awaited [Concerns about disruptions appear to have been mistaken thus far]
• Nigeria’s Lagos judicial panel on SARS continues evidence-hearing on
Lekki shooting
• Kenya’s Kenyatta meets county governors to assess Covid-19 measures
• IHS Markit releases Africa PMIs for Oct-20
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Tanzania’s Magufuli inauguration, after re-election (5 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa expected to address nation on Covid during the week
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Eleven Cameroon teachers kidnapped in region ravaged by insurgency
• Over 40 feared dead after boat carrying Mozambique conflict victims sinks
• Zimbabwe police again arrest journalist critical of govt
• South Africa commission condemns killing of activist who opposed coal mine
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara wins re-election with 94.27% vote
• Kenya blind students struggle with social distancing as schools re-open
• Uganda opposition presidential candidate Bobi Wine arrested, police
rout protesters
• Ivory Coast police surround opposition leaders’ houses
• Tanzania police arrest opposition leader after visiting colleagues in custody
• Scorned by Trump, many Nigerians love him all the same
• Uganda’s Museveni warns off disruptors as he starts bid for another term
• South Africa’s Aspen agrees initial deal to make J&J vaccine candidate
• Ivory Coast president scores landslide win, opposition cries foul
• Gunmen kill 32, burn houses in attack in Ethiopia – administrator
• Nigeria minister says it’s unclear who shot protesters in Lagos

Bloomberg
• Ethiopia prime minister orders army to respond to Tigray attacks
• Lawyer accused of bribery in ICC Kenya case is in detention
• WHO, nations’ covid response hampered by politics, reviewer says
• Algeria president diagnosed with coronavirus, Ennahar reports
• Bond investors reap Ivory Coast returns despite election strife
• Tanzania opposition vow to protest election loss despite arrests
• Ghana parliament to review gold royalties IPO deal after probe
• Kenya in talks with IMF for fund arrangement, lender says
• Berkshire-backed Teraco plans $250 mln Africa data centre
• Uganda pop star cleared to challenge Museveni for presidency
• South Africa’s Old Mutual CEO reboots strategy after bust-up with predecessor
• South Africa’s Northam in talks to accelerate buyout of black investors’ stake
• Ethiopia says militants killed 32 people in Oromia region
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara secures third term, opposition cries foul
• Saudi, Egypt business activity improves but UAE is dealt setback
• Mozambique gets $116 mln budget support as EU resumes aid

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 3 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• In final pre-election push, Biden & Trump also gird for court battle
• Asia shares hold firm, shrug off US election jitters
• Oil falls as Covid-19 cases soar, Libya output jumps
• Brent down 0.4% at $38.82, WTI down 0.2% at $36.75 (0159GMT)
• Gold steady as investors brace for US elections
• Spot gold little changed at $1,892.51/oz., futures as well at
$1,893/oz. (0123GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• US holds presidential elections [Concerns about Trump not conceding
if loses are overblown]
• Nigeria’s Lagos judicial panel on SARS hears evidence on Lekki shooting
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa addresses Infrastructure South Africa event
• Kenya’s Kenyatta meets MPs on BBI at Naivasha
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Kenya’s Kenyatta meets county governors to assess Covid-19 measures (4 Nov)
• Tanzania’s Magufuli inauguration, after re-election (5 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa expected to address nation on Covid during the week
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• France forces neutralized over 50 militants in Mali, says defence minister
• Ivory Coast president on track election win, opposition cries foul
• Nigeria minister says it’s unclear who shot protesters in Lagos
• Gunmen kill 32, burn houses in attack in Ethiopia: administrator
• Tanzania arrests opposition leaders, foiling post-election protests
• Uganda’s Museveni warns off disruptors as he starts bid for another term
• Lawyer surrenders, accused of bribing witnesses in ICC case against Kenya VP
• AngloGold Ashanti doubles dividend payouts as profits, cash soar
• Tanzania’s President John Magufuli says to work with rivals after tainted poll
• Tanzania police arrest main opposition party leader ahead of protests
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara takes early lead in election
• Algeria voters shun referendum aimed at ending political crisis

Bloomberg
• Mozambique gets $116 mln budget support as EU resumes aid
• Nigeria insurers face record claims as protest costs mount
• OPEC boosts output even as new virus wave sends oil crashing
• South Africa begins talks to regulate key minibus taxi industry
• Russia discusses option of delaying OPEC+ cuts taper by 3 months
• Algeria passes constitutional changes few voted for
• Egypt warns of repercussions of ignoring virus safety measures
• Nigeria forces surround southern oil town after soldiers killed
• Uganda President Museveni is cleared to extend his 34-year rule
• Algerians rebuke govt with record low referendum turnout
• South Africa factory sentiment jumps to record high on demand
• South Africa’s Aspen agrees vaccine manufacturing deal with Johnson & Johnson

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg