Author Archives: rafiqraji

About rafiqraji

Dr. Rafiq Raji is managing director & chief economist at Macroafricaintel Investment LLC, an Africa-focused macro research & investment consultancy based in Lagos, Nigeria. He is also an adjunct researcher at the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Business School, Singapore. Dr Raji is an avid writer, with his writings severally featured in prestigious publications like BusinessDay, Africa Investor, The Africa Report, African Business, New African and HowWeMadeItInAfrica. He was previously an Africa Economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. Before joining the Global Research team at Standard Chartered, Dr. Raji worked with various teams at its Nigerian franchise; gaining experience in credit risk, asset & liability management, and capital markets. Rafiq was also previously Head, Advisory & Capital Markets for the securities brokerage arm of Nigeria's Standard Alliance Group. Prior to that, he had investment banking stints with FBN Capital Limited, Vetiva Capital Management Limited and Africapital Management Limited; all in Lagos, Nigeria. Dr. Raji holds an MBA from the Lagos Business School, Nigeria and a PhD in Financial Economics from Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. His personal interests are travel, music, writing, finance & economics, international politics & relations, comparative religious studies, volunteering/philanthropy, film & photography and everything and anything about Africa! He hopes to learn how to play the guitar and speak, read and write Arabic, French and Mandarin. He is also an assiduous and lifetime student of history.

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 3 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • US markets closed for July 4 holiday
  • Asia shares hit 4-mth high as US, China recoveries gather pace
  • Shanghai shares hit 14-mth high on service sector recovery
  • US payrolls jump 4.8 mln but hurdles lie ahead
  • Rising US covid-19 cases threaten US recovery

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls as growing coronavirus cases stoke fuel demand worries
  • Brent down 0.9% at $42.77 a barrel (0042GMT)
  • WTI down 0.8% at $40.31

Precious metals

  • Gold steadies in tight range as virus fears offset solid US jobs data
  • Spot gold unchanged at $1,775.12/oz. (0232GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,787.80/oz.

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa visits Mpumalanga to assess province’s covid-19 response
  • Kenya roadmap on reopening worship centres expected; Kenyatta covid-19 measures speech expected on Monday [Or during weekend; cabinet reshuffle could be announced]
  • Electoral Commission Ghana voter re-registration continues
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • US welcomes independent probe of report that cleared African Development Bank chief
  • Mining magnate Gertler denies skirting US sanctions in Congo
  • Attackers on motorbikes kill 32 Mali villagers, local officials say
  • Small homemade bomb explodes in Cameroon capital, official says
  • South Africa to keep 20,000 soldiers on covid-19 duty until September
  • Botswana investigating mystery deaths of at least 275 elephants
  • Portugal to take then selll majority stake in Efacec firm of Angola’s dos Santos
  • Lockdown ends in Nigeria’s Kano, where coronavirus killed hundreds
  • Namibia considering options for struggling national flag carrier – finmin
  • South Africa telecoms regulator moves to finalise spectrum licensing
  • Slain Ethiopia singer electrified a generation with songs of freedom and protest
  • Sierra Leone doctors’ strike leaves covid-19 patients stranded
  • Pump or dump? With oil in decline, Africa ponders its energy future
  • Two killed in clashes as mourners struggle to get into Ethiopia singer’s funeral
  • South Africa man dragged naked from shack sparks legal action against evictions
  • Six hurt in scuffles with security forces at Ethiopia singer’s funeral
  • South Africa rand firmer as currnet account surplus adds to global risk boost
  • OPEC basket oil price rises above $40 for first time in 4 months
  • South Africa’s SAA administrators aim to publish revised plan on July 7
  • Canadian arrested in Egypt early in 2019 returns home after release, needs medical treatment
  • Pirates kidnap nine in attack on vessel off Nigeria, says ship owner
  • South Africa refinery explosion kills two, injures seven
  • Pandemic costs Africa travel, tourism almost $55 bln
  • Kenya shilling seen on back foot, Tanzania’s firming; in week ahead
  • Africa does not have manifold undetected coronavirus infections – WHO
  • As pandemic spreads, Congo poet warns in music video of ‘empty cooking pots’
  • South Africa – CMA CGM drops port congestion surcharge for Cape Town
  • Angola resists OPEC pressure to comply fully with oil cuts – sources
  • Eight years after bombing, Somalia reopens national theatre
  • Kenya shilling holds steady against the dollar
  • South Africa records first current account surplus in 17 years
  • Explosion at Astron Energy’s South Africa refinery kills at least 2 – source
  • World food price index rises in June, first increase in 2020 – UN
  • How to rid East Africa of locusts? Serve them in a kebab or drive them to cannibalism

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 2 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks rise on vaccine hopes, eyes on US payrolls
  • MSCI ex-Japan rises, all major Asian indexes in black
  • Shanghai copper at 6-mth highs on supply fears
  • Investor focus on US employment data due later in the day
  • Currencies tread water

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices dip on demand worries as California reimposes restrictions
  • Brent down 0.3% at $41.89 a barrel (0024GMT)
  • WTI down 0.3% at $39.69

Precious metals

  • Gold eases off near 8-yr peak after solid US data
  • Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,767.11/oz. (0034GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,777.30/oz.

Grains

  • Corn eases after rally, lower US planting stems fall
  • Corn futures down 0.2% at $3.59-3/4 a bushel (0030GMT)
  • Soybeans down 0.1% at $8.98 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.4% at $4.96-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria raises fuel prices
  • AfDB hosts Africa infrastructure finance webinar
  • South Africa current account balance Q1-20 [fcst. -2.7% of GDP, prev. -1.3%]
  • Electoral Commission Ghana voter re-registration continues
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Burkina Faso probes bullet-ridden bodies discovered after army operation
  • Nigeria to restart domestic flights July 8 in easing of coronavirus curbs
  • Mali opposition seeks to curb president’s authority in reform plan
  • Algeria president pardons protest movement activists
  • Military deployed in Ethiopia capital after more than 80 killed in protests
  • Egypt reopens airports and welcomes tourists to pyramids after covid closure
  • Sierra Leone doctors treating covid-19 patients to go on strike
  • ‘We are not guinea pigs’, say South Africa anti-vaccine protesters
  • Egypt parliament approves $5 bln supplemental spending bill
  • Monk’s death sentence commuted to life for murder of bishop at Egypt monastery
  • Big South Africa insurers face $232 mln in claims from 500 virus-hit firms
  • South Africa eases lockdown, eco-tourism community fears for future
  • South Africa’s Sasol to sell Escravos gas-to-liquids plant to Chevron
  • Sierra Leone doctors treating covid-19 patients to go on strike
  • Mauritius investigates alleged round-tripping linked to Wirecard AG
  • Portfolio inflows to emerging markets to continue to recover – IIF
  • Morocco’s trade deficit narrows 12% y/y in Jan-May
  • More than 40,000 people forcefully evicted in East Africa during coronavirus crisis
  • Libya’s NOC says force majeure continues pending lifting of blockade
  • Outflanked by China in Africa, Taiwan eyes unrecognised Somaliland
  • South Africa’s Transnet names Dlamini as CFO
  • South Africa – Johannesburg exchange fines Tongaat over non-compliance
  • Child labour on Ivory Coast cocoa farms rises during pandemic, study finds
  • Actis-backed African education group acquires Nigeria university – CEO
  • Turkey business group plans Libya trip to set post-war plan – sources
  • Congo and the chocolate factory: New producer hits the sweet spot
  • Uganda shilling inches up against the dollar
  • Easing lockdown lifts South Africa’s Absa PMI in June
  • Congo vows zero tolerance over child soldiers after US anti-trafficking nod
  • South Africa retailer Steinhoff posts bigger full-year loss

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 1 Jul

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares inch higher as data drives rebound hopes
  • Chinese PMI data helps stocks edge higher
  • Caution holds gold near 8yr top, supports yen

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises after sharp drop in US crude inventories
  • Brent up 0.8% at $41.60 a barrel (0044GMT)
  • WTI up 1.1% at $39.69

Precious metals

  • Gold firms near 8-yr peak as virus fears grow
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,782.67/oz. (0336GMT)
  • US gold futures steady at $1,800.60/oz.

Grains

  • Corn falls from 3-mth high, USDA estimates cap losses
  • Corn futures up 0.2% at $3.41 a bushel
  • Soybeans down 0.1% at $8.81 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.3% at $4.90-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria reopens interstate borders
  • Egypt reopens airports
  • Impeachment motion against Kenya’s Nakuru county governor Kinyanjui imminent
  • South Africa Absa manufacturing PMI Jun-20 [prev. 50.2]
  • Electoral Commission Ghana voter re-registration continues
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • South Africa retailer Steinhoff posts bigger annual loss
  • One killed in Sudan as thousands rally for faster reform
  • At least 10 dead as slaying of Ethiopia singer triggers protests
  • Sahel summit agrees need to intensify campaign against militants
  • France’s Macron says recent “spectacular” results make victory in Sahel possible
  • Three deadly blasts rock Ethiopia capital during protests – police
  • South Africa activists hail ruling to protect poor residents from police raids
  • Zimbabwe central bank raises main lending rate to 35% as inflatioin soars
  • Protests in Ethiopia town of Adama kill eight, injure 80 – doctor
  • Belgium king expresses deep regret for colonial past in Congo
  • Egypt M2 money supply up 17.24% y/y in May – cbank
  • Soccer – Africa cup of nations postponed from January next year to 2022
  • Kenya economic growth slows down in the first quarter
  • OPEC, Russia seen easing oil production cuts from August – sources
  • Nigeria WTO nominee says has “strong support” from Africa
  • Kenya economy expands by 4.9% in the first quarter of this year
  • Tunisia coalition under pressure over PM conflict of interest allegations
  • MTN launches 5G network across major cities in South Africa
  • OPEC oil output sinks as Saudi deepens cuts and others cut more, survey shows
  • Ethiopia satellite television: federal police arrested media mogul amid protests
  • Kenya inflation falls to 4.59% in June
  • Spain to open border with Morocco only in case of reciprocity
  • Ethiopia media mogul’s bodyguards in standoff with police, his TV station says
  • South Africa – Shipping firm CMA CGM to impose emergency surcharge at Cape Town port
  • Global covid-19 prevential trial of hydroxychloroquine to resume
  • Fitch: Sub-Sahara Africa debt burdens rising faster than elsewhere
  • South Africa trade balance swings to a surplus in May
  • South Africa recession deepens in first quarter as mining plummets
  • Egypt says gold deposit discovered in southeast
  • Sahel remains fragile despite battle gains against militants
  • Uganda shilling holds steady against the dollar
  • Botswana taps into strategic fuel reserves to ease shortages
  • South Africa first quarter expenditure on GDP down 2.3% q/q
  • Kenya shilling edges down against the dollar
  • Swarms of locust devastate parts of northern Kenya
  • South Africa Barloworld sees drop in H1 earnings as pandemic hits demand
  • South Africa credit growth slows to 6.35% y/y in May
  • Shell to take up to $22 bln in writedown after climate review

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 30 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks up as China PMI, US data cheer markets worried over coronavirus surge
  • Equities see positives in economic data
  • Hong Kong shares not phased by China security bill
  • Coronavirus surge remains a risk to markets

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices slip as weak Japan data exposes market jitters over fragile demand
  • Brent down 0.8% at $41.53 a barrel (0038GMT)
  • WTI down 1% at $39.32

Precious metals

  • Gold poised for best quarter in four years as virus fears persist
  • Spot gold steady at $1,771.30/oz. (0306GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,783.80/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans edge higher ahead of USDA report
  • Soybean futures up 0.3% at $8.69 a bushel (0101GMT)
  • Corn down 0.2% at $3.25-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.5% at $4.84 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Electoral Commission Ghana starts voter re-registration exercise
  • EU leaders meet G5 Sahel heads of state in Mauritania
  • Nigeria’s Buhari flags off section of Trans-Nigeria gas pipeline
  • Kenya & Uganda publish June inflation data
  • South Africa’s central bank publishes money & credit statistics
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Nigeria’s slave descendants hope race protests help end discrimination
  • Congo president vows not to accept judicial reforms that cause ‘harm’
  • Senegal lifts covid-19 state of emergency to protect economy
  • Macron slams Turkey’s ‘criminal’ role in Libya, Putin’s ambivalence
  • Saudi crown prince, Nigerian president discuss OPEC+ deal compliance
  • South Africa court sides with Eskom in clawback dispute
  • Libya’s NOC confirms international talks on resuming oil output
  • South Africa’s Naspers posts 4.5% fall in full-year profit
  • South Africa’s MTN allows customers to pay for online shopping using mobile money
  • Algeria annual inflation rises in May
  • Four aid workers say militants abducted them in northeast Nigeria
  • Nigeria to ease covid-19 curbs on inter-state travel and students
  • Matonge, An African home in Brussels
  • Nigeria to allow travel between states outside curfew hours from July 1
  • Lesotho’s former first lady granted bail in murder case
  • Libya tribal leaders says oil output to resume
  • Uganda power distributor Umeme to invest $83 mln to boost network
  • “On our knees”: Kenya tourism revenue collapses
  • Malawi names former insurance executive as finance minister
  • Kenya shilling holds steady against the dollar
  • Burundi’s new cabinet includes two under Western sanctions over rights abuses
  • Kenya loses 80 bln shillings in tourism revenue due to coronavirus
  • Libya’s NOC confirms international talks on resuming oil output
  • Potato diplomacy as Malta seeks new era of Namibia relations
  • West Africa instability risks gains against militants – French official
  • South Africa firm aims to plug covid-19 test kits shortage as virus spreads
  • France warns political uncertainty in Mali, Burkina risks recent progress
  • Uganda shilling a touch stronger as charity flows offer support
  • Spain says PM off to Africa, EU’s list of safe nations ready soon

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 29 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks wary as coronavirus threatens economic reopening
  • Asia ex-Japan eases off 4-mth top, S&P 500 futures steady
  • Deaths from covid-19 reached half a million on Sunday
  • Dollar, bonds supported on safe haven appeal

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls in second straight session as virus cools demand
  • Brent down 1.6% at $40.36 a barrel (2350GMT)
  • WTI down 1.6% at $37.86

Precious metals

  • Gold climbs as fears over surging virus cases boost demand
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,772.61/oz. (0015GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.3% at $1,785.90/oz.

Grains

  • Corn rebounds from 6-wk low, bearish fundamentals cap gains
  • Corn futures up 0.4% at $3.18-1/4 a bushel (0218GMT)
  • Soybeans up 0.2% at $16.73-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat up 0.2% at $4.76-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa state capture inquiry resumes
  • Electoral Commission Ghana press briefing on new voters register
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Guinea-Bissau president sacks five ministers
  • Sudan extends coronaviru lockdown in Khartoum state
  • Sudan says it will rein in state firms, including those owned by security
  • Egypt court jails belly dancer for ‘debauchery’ in social media crackdown
  • Malawi’s Chakwera sworn in as president after re-run election
  • Congo PM threatens govt resignation over minister’s arrest
  • Sudan extends closure of Khartoum international airport by two weeks
  • Congo’s justice minister released hours after arrest
  • Egypt, Ethiopia & Sudan hope for Nile dam deal in weeks
  • More than 90% of issues in Nile dam negotiations resolved, AU chief says
  • Facing defeat, Malawi president says election re-run had irregularities
  • Insurgents stage ‘very violent’ attack close to gas projects in Mozambique
  • Ghana’s President Akufo-Addo choses by ruling party for poll rematch against Mahama
  • Guinea-Bissau braces for rise in coronavirus cases, enlists Cuban medical help
  • Tunisia reopens borders to tourists after halting spread of coronavirus
  • Sudan, Egypt say Ethiopia will not fill Nile dam without reaching deal
  • Morocco rejects Amnesty’s allegations on spying on journalist
  • IMF board approves $5.2 bln, 12-mth loan program for Egypt
  • Zimbabwe suspends stock exchange, mobile payments over ‘economic sabotage’
  • Ivory Coast’s Air Cote d’Ivoire says propped up by $24 mln from govt
  • East Congo ebola outbreak no longer an international emergency, says WHO
  • South Afriac to reopen casinos and cinemas despite covid-19 spread
  • UK Export Finance set to back Total’s $20 bln Mozambique LNG project – source
  • MTN to challenge Ghana regulator’s move to reduce market dominance
  • Ivory Coast flash floods kill at least seven, more rain expected
  • Congo president wins approval for state mining company nominees
  • South Africa’s Sasol to sell stakes in Mozambique pipeline, power plant – sources
  • Nigeria needs to deepen reforms to boost growth, revenues – World Bank
  • Ethiopia receives 12 bids for two telco licences – regulator
  • Libya’a NOC says Russia mercenaries entered oilfield, with output blocked
  • Congo aims to launch state cobalt monopoly in two mths, mines minister says
  • Kenya Airways estimates coronavirus revenue loss at $100 mln – CEO
  • Kenya central banker sees silver lining in economic gloom
  • Uganda – Hit the brakes on reform, say Kampala’s transport workers
  • Kenya cbank says current account gap could be narrower than forecast

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel | Africa FX Monthly – July 2020

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Click here for PDF version

Currency   1 month

(31 Jul 2020)

3 month

(30 Sep 2020)

6 month

(31 Dec 2020)

12 month

(30 Jun 2021)

South African Rand (USD:ZAR) 17.5 17.1 17.3 16.5
Nigerian Naira (USD:NGN) 391.0 400.0 405.0 415.0
Ghanaian Cedi (USD:GHS) 5.7 5.5 5.3 6.1
Kenyan Shilling (USD:KES) 106.5 106.3 106.7 108.3
Ethiopian Birr (USD:ETB) 34.5 35.0 37.3 40.1
Mauritian Rupee (USD:MUR) 40.5 40.9 41.1 43.0
Namibian Dollar (USD:NAD) 17.5 17.1 17.3 16.5
Botswanan Pula (USD:BWP) 12.3 12.5 12.1 13.0
Zambian Kwacha (USD:ZMW) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1
US Dollar Index (DXY) 97.9 98.1 97.3 96.5

macroafricaintel Weekly | 29 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
30 Jun South Africa GDP, % qq saa Q1 2020 -0.4 -1.4
30 Jun South Africa PSCE, % yy May 2020 8.7 7.4
30 Jun South Africa M3, % yy May 2020 10.7 10.5
30 Jun Uganda CPI, % yy (mm) Jun 2020 3.2 (0.2) 2.8 (-0.1)
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Jun 2020 2.5 (0.3) 2.4 (0.0)
Tanzania CPI,   % yy (mm) Jun 2020 3.6 (0.3) 3.2 (0.2)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Jun 2020 2.3 (0.4) 2.1 (0.4)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Jun 2020 12.7 (1.3) 12.4 (1.2)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm)* May 2020 2.8 (0.1) 3.0 (-0.5)
Ethiopia CPI, % yy (mm) Jun 2020 20.4 (2.1) 19.8 (-1.6)
Mauritius CPI, % yy (mm) Jun 2020 4.0 (0.2) 2.8 (-1.3)
Seychelles CPI, % yy (mm) Jun 2020 -0.2 (0.0) -0.2 (-0.1)

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 26 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks going nowhere as virus fears hold optimism in check
  • MSCI AxJ grinds 0.5% weekly gain, Nikkei flat
  • Dollar steady as investors see risks balanced

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices crawl up on demand recovery, tempered by virus outbreaks
  • Brent up 0.5% at $41.27 a barrel (0009GMT)
  • WTI up 0.4% at $38.87

Precious metals

  • Gold on track for third weekly gain as virus cases surge
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,763.48/oz. (0042GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,773.60/oz.

Grains

  • Corn firms; set for weekly losses of more than 4% on supply glut, low demand
  • Corn futures down more than 4% for the week
  • Soybeans down nearly 1% for the week
  • Wheat up more than 1% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Ghana’s ruling NPP declares Nana Akufo-Addo as presidential flagbearer (27 Jun)
  • Kenya senate decides fate of impeached Kirinyaga county governor Waiguru
  • Corporate Council on Africa leaders forum; Kagame, Kenyatta, Nyusi & Akufo-Addo key speakers; 23-26 Jun
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • In China’s ‘Little Africa’, a struggle to get back to business after lockdown
  • Malawi’s opposition appears to win presidential election re-run
  • Congo aims to launch state cobalt monopoly in two months, mines minister
  • Commander in Somalia militant group killed – state media
  • Morocco’s OCP to commission Nigeria, Ghana plants in 2024
  • Ivory Coast to allow international flights from July 1
  • Donors pledge $1.8 bln for Sudan’s troubled transition
  • Egypt’s Eva Pharma begins producing covid-19 drug Remdesivir
  • Egypt central bank keeps benchmark rates on hold
  • Ivory Coast says Burkina Faso national led deadly attack against army
  • At least 10 aid workers kidnapped in southwest Niger
  • South Africa Airways restructuring vote delayed until next month
  • Africa Oil – European gasoline margins boost hope for Nigeria exports
  • South Africa rand recovers after gloomy budget; stocks fall
  • Malawi opposition’s Chakwera leads re-run with 60% – state broadcaster mbc
  • Djibouti sets up sovereign wealth fund, targets $1.5 bln in 10 yrs
  • Nigeria banks to restructure over a third of loans – MPC member
  • Kenya central bank holds key rate at 7.0% for the second time
  • Egypt national carrier to resume flights from July
  • Western donors pledge some $900 mln for Sudan’s transition
  • Ghana bank governor fears ballooning deficit not sustainable
  • Turkey says Libya’s GNA demands Haftar withdraw from Sirte, Jufra
  • Congo announces end of ebola outbreak in east, second deadliest on record
  • Zambia sees 2020 expenditure up $1.1 bln as kwacha falls
  • South Africa retailer Mr Price pulls plug on Nigeria
  • South Africa mines record six covid-19 deaths, 1,796 cases
  • Botswana issues maiden power generation licences to private producers
  • Nigeria’s covid-19 outbreak could impoverish 5 mln people, World Bank says
  • Uganda shilling trades unchanged supported by month-end flows
  • Nigeria’s cenbank aims to boost foreign reserves to support naira
  • Algeria’s Sonatrach, Total extend LNG supply deal – Sonatrach statement
  • Egypt’s Rameda gets requests to export covid-19 drug – CEO
  • Civil society groups tell Congo to reject AJN Resources deal
  • Senegal president self-quarantines after contact with covid-19 case
  • South Africa’s Harmony raises $200 mln in share sale
  • South Africa’s Exxaro Resources expects dip in coal production, sales volumes
  • South Africa’s Mr Price full-year earnings fall, scraps dividend

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 25 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks sell-off as coronavirus surge knocks recovery hopes
  • Virus surges in US, new restrictions considered
  • AxJ down 0.7%, falls over 1% in Japan & Australia
  • US stock futures down 0.7%; dollar steady

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices hold ground after sharp retreat on virus fears
  • Brent up 0.1% at $40.36 a barrel (0129GMT)
  • WTI up 0.3% at $38.13

Precious metals

  • Gold firms as fears of second pandemic wave boost safe-haven bids
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,764.20/oz. (0059GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,773.60/oz.

Grains

  • Corn falls to near 3-wk low on ample supplies, weak demand
  • Corn futures down 0.2% at $3.23-3/4 a bushel (0137GMT)
  • Soybeans down 0.1% at $8.69-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.3% at $3.84-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria’s Buhari attends crucial ruling APC party executive committee meeting
  • Kenya’s Kenyatta meets county governors; cabinet reshuffle imminent
  • South Africa’s Mabuza briefs parliament on Eskom
  • Kenya senate hears impeached Kirinyaga county governor Waiguru’s defense; ruling tomorrow (26 Jun)
  • Corporate Council on Africa leaders forum; Kagame, Kenyatta, Nyusi & Akufo-Addo key speakers; 23-26 Jun
  • South Africa producer inflation Apr-20 [fcst. 3.6% yy, prev. 4.5%]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Bank of Central African States says region’s 2020 GDP to shrink 5.9%
  • Malawi media give opposition candidte 55% lead in presidential election
  • Former South Africa president De Klerk withdraws from US rights talk
  • Congo police disperse parliament protesters with tear gas, water cannon
  • Pompeo says China’a Africa lending creates unsustainable debt burdens
  • South Africa rolls out continent’s first trials for covid-19 vaccine
  • Sierra Leone protests demand justice after girl, 5, raped and killed
  • Ethiopia rejects Tigray region’s call for election, citing pandemic
  • Western donors hope to Sudan cash scheme with $500 mln – diplomats
  • South Africa urges support for SAA resuce but allocates no new funds
  • Artisanal miner in Tanzania finds large rare gemstones worth $3.3 mln
  • South Africa’s Harmony to start share sale to fund AngloGold deal
  • Africa Oil – Nigerian programmes show no sharp cuts
  • Sudan to establish trade financing fund in face of forex shortage
  • Three dead in violence at SMB’s coltan mine in Congo
  • South Africa rand little moved by emergency budget, bonds rally
  • South Africa’s debt grows into hippo “eating our children’s inheritance”
  • Egypt looking to sell majority stake in Arab Investment Bank, potential buyers say
  • Kenya’s central bank extends mobile payments relief by six months
  • South Africa’s Implats lifts force majeure, revises 2020 output
  • Zambia health minister arrested for corruption
  • South Africa’s budget deficit seen widening to 14.6% of GDP
  • IMF forecasts deeper recession for sub-Saharan Africa
  • MTN to launch 5G network in South Africa next week
  • With no tourists to watch migration, Kenya operator’s planes are grounded
  • Nigeria talking to World Bank and others to raise $6.5 bln
  • Nigeria central bank to work t unify FX rates across markets
  • All African countries now have coronavirus lab testing capacity – WHO chief
  • Migrant workers need support, jobs at home after pandemic disruption – ILO
  • The big chill: How Africa is moving to battle ‘zombie’ appliances
  • South Africa retail sales up 2.7% y/y in March
  • Nigeria’s rating at risk as debt, financing gap rise – Fitch
  • World Bank approves $750 mln loan for Nigeria’s power sector
  • South Africa govt urges creditors to support SAA rescue plan
  • South Africa inflation sinks to 15-yr low 3.0% y/y in April
  • Kenya shilling firm amid end month demand
  • Uganda shilling flat amid subdued activity
  • South Africa’s African Bank falls to H1 loss after taking charge
  • South Africa’s Sun International close properties, cuts jobs as pandemic pressure mounts
  • Zimbabwe fuel prices more than double
  • South Africa’s Pepkor raises nearly 2 bln rand via share placement
  • Australia’s FAR says Senegal unit in default over Sangomar project

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 24 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks touch 4-mth top on dogged optimism
  • Asia ex-Japan nudges to highest since early March
  • Market assumes economies to re-open even as virus rages
  • Dollar remains inversely correlated to risk
  • Gold near 7-1/2-yr peak, oil off a 4-mth top

Oil Markets

  • Oil edges lower as US stockpiles grow more than expected
  • Brent down 2 cents at $42.61 a barrel (0045GMT)
  • WTI down 4 cents at $40.33

Precious metals

  • Gold hovers near 8-yr high as second coronavirus wave fears mount
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,769.76/oz. (0234GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,785.80/oz.

Grains

  • Corn falls for 3rd session on US weather; wheat climbs
  • Corn futures down 0.2% at $3.24-1/2 a bushel (0007GMT)
  • Wheat up 0.2% at $4.92 a bushel
  • Soybeans flat at $8.75 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa’s Mboweni delivers supplementary covid-19 budget speech
  • Africa CDC webinar on covid-19 vaccine; Ramaphosa et al. to participate
  • Corporate Council on Africa leaders forum; Kagame, Kenyatta, Nyusi & Akufo-Addo key speakers
  • South Africa inflation Apr-20 [fcst. 4.1% yy, prev. 4.1%]
  • Vote-counting of Malawi presidential poll rerun starts
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence May-20 [prev. 77.8]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • IMF, Sudan reach agreement on macroeconomic policies structural reforms
  • Algeria names new energy and finance ministers – state TV
  • South Africa’s Aspen could supply 10 mln dexamethasone pills in covid-19 crisis
  • Nigeria’s Buhari sees threat to West African currency plan
  • Tanzania arrests opposition party leader, revokes newspaper licence
  • Zimbabwe dollar falls at first weekly forex auction
  • South Africa trade union takes state arms firm to court over wage payments
  • Africa Oil – Nigeria raises term prices, trims Qua loadings
  • UK Supreme Court hears Nigeria communities’ case against Shell
  • South Africa sees investors putting billions into infrastructure drive
  • World Bank lends Morocco $500 mln to improve access to online finance
  • South Africa rand firmer as market awaits budget
  • South Africa’s Comair administrators to present restructuring plan by June 30
  • Egypt lifts night curfew, eases coronavirus restrictions from Saturday
  • Libya and foreign forces mobilise at Sirte, Arab ministers urge calm
  • South Africa unemployment rate hit record high, rises to 30.1% in Q1, before virus
  • South Africa receives unsolicited proposals for new national airline
  • Zambia approves $438 mln covid-19 economic stimulus package
  • South Africa’s Comair gets cash offer, needs a week to secure funding, say administrators
  • Former South Africa president Zuma appears in court for resumed graft trial
  • Congo officials vow to tackle child labour at mines as virus threatens spike
  • Kenya shilling holds steady against the dollar
  • Uganda shilling weakens slightly on uptick in importer demand
  • Zimbabwe’s Centragrid to scale up solar output

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters