Author Archives: rafiqraji

About rafiqraji

Dr. Rafiq Raji is managing director & chief economist at Macroafricaintel Investment LLC, an Africa-focused macro research & investment consultancy based in Lagos, Nigeria. He is also an adjunct researcher at the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Business School, Singapore. Dr Raji is an avid writer, with his writings severally featured in prestigious publications like BusinessDay, Africa Investor, The Africa Report, African Business, New African and HowWeMadeItInAfrica. He was previously an Africa Economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. Before joining the Global Research team at Standard Chartered, Dr. Raji worked with various teams at its Nigerian franchise; gaining experience in credit risk, asset & liability management, and capital markets. Rafiq was also previously Head, Advisory & Capital Markets for the securities brokerage arm of Nigeria's Standard Alliance Group. Prior to that, he had investment banking stints with FBN Capital Limited, Vetiva Capital Management Limited and Africapital Management Limited; all in Lagos, Nigeria. Dr. Raji holds an MBA from the Lagos Business School, Nigeria and a PhD in Financial Economics from Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. His personal interests are travel, music, writing, finance & economics, international politics & relations, comparative religious studies, volunteering/philanthropy, film & photography and everything and anything about Africa! He hopes to learn how to play the guitar and speak, read and write Arabic, French and Mandarin. He is also an assiduous and lifetime student of history.

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 16 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asian stocks hit record peak as vaccine hopes dampen virus fears
• China’s factory output beats forecasts as Asia shakes off covid slump
• Oil climbs higher on China, Japan rebound, hopes of OPEC+ supply curb
• Brent up 1% at $43.22, WTI up 1.4% at $40.67 (0204GMT)
• Gold hits 1-wk peak as softer dollar, worsening pandemic lift appeal
• Spot gold up 0.5% at $1,896.85/oz., futures up 0.5% at $1,894.90 (0329GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Nigeria inflation Oct-20 [fcst. 14.0% yy, prev. 13.7%]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• South Africa central bank MPC (17-19 Nov) [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• US condemns Tigray forces’ attacks on Eritrea
• Gunmen in western Ethiopia kill at least 34 people in bus attack,
rights body says
• Number of refugees fleeing Ethiopia to Sudan surpasses 20,000 – UN
• Ethiopia PM says the country can achieve objectives of Tigray
operation ‘by itself’
• In escalation of Ethiopia war, Tigray leader says his forces fired
rockets at Eritrea
• Rockets fired at Eritrea capital from Ethiopia, diplomats say
• Fleeing Tigray war, Ethiopians cross river to Sudan
• Demonstrators demand better conditions for Canary Islands’ migrant arrivals
• ‘The soldiers kept shooting’: witnesses testify in Lagos protest probe
• Zambia will not pay eurobond coupon before grace period expires – finmin
• France says it has killed senior militant operative in Mali
• Ethiopians fleeing to Sudan describe air strikes & machete killings in Tigray
• Polisario leader says Western Sahara ceasefire with Morocco is over
• Ethiopia claims big advance in Tigray, Amnesty reports mass killing
• Tigray says two missile strikes on Ethiopia sites targeted military
• After Ivory Coast election, fighting comes to a once-calm town
• IMF says any aid to Zambia requires steps to restore debt sustainability
• Ethiopia: Tigray conflict risks spiralling out of control: UN’s Bachelet
• US condemns ‘massacre of civilians’ in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• Refugee exodus to Sudan swells as war crimes feared in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• 20 migrants drown in Libya shipwreck, fourth accident this week
• Ethiopia denies boming Tigray’s Tekeze power dam
• Senior South Africa ANC leader Magashule granted bail in graft case
• War crimes feared in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict
• UN says more than 14,500 have fled Ethiopia to Sudan
• Zambia eurobond holders reject payment deferral request – finance ministry
• Ethiopia names new Tigray head as conflict boils
• Zambia heads toward Africa’s first post-covid default as debt deadlines loom
• Tanzania re-elected leader keeps finance minister Mpango in new govt
• AU chief sacks security head after Ethiopia questions loyalty
• Egypt: Man sets himself on fire in Cairo’s Tahrir square
• Nigeria case against JP Morgan over OPL 245 oil deal to go to trial
• Egypt transgender woman faces uphill battle against stigma

Bloomberg
• Asia Pacific nations sign the world’s biggest trade deal
• South Sudan to use its first IMF funding to stabilize currency
• SBM Bank (Mauritius) to appoint Servansingh as chairman, Week-End says
• Tigray confirms Eritrea strike as Ethiopia conflict spreads
• OPEC’s got to play the coronavirus waiting game
• Ethiopia Tigray leader confirms firing missiles at Eritrea
• OPEC+ gets scant relief from vaccine as it meets to discuss cuts
• Ethiopia arrests militant suspects planning attacks
• US Army names soldiers killed in Egypt helicopter crash
• Polisario quits Western Sahara 30-yr ceasefire after clashes
• Egypt unveils huge find of ancient coffins and gilded statues
• Ethiopia says rockets fired in Amhara region as violence spreads
• Kenya’s biggest tea grower 4-mth output rises 3.9%
• Nigeria central bank dollar sales fails to stop naira weakening
• WHO approves first ever vaccine for emergency use against polio
• Nigeria President Buhari signs amended banking bill into law
• South Africa Limpopo private sector coal plant project may be abandoned
• G20 back new rules to deepen debt help to poor hit by virus
• Ethiopia withdraws thousands of troops from neighbouring Somalia
• Zambia poised to be first Africa sovereign default in pandemic
• Zambia closer to default after bondholders refuse relief
• Morocco moves army to end Western Sahara blockade, Le360 reports
• South Africa ruling party official charged with graft, fraud
• France forces kill militant group commander in Mali
• Multichoice, Vivendi to team up on new Africa TV productions
• Tanzania targets annual average GDP growth of 8% over five years
• Old Mutual sees resilient South Africa consumers aiding growth
• Scores of civilians massacred in northern Ethiopia, Amnesty says
• Zambia’s plan to sell billionaire’s mines stuck in legal mire
• South Africa’s Eskom ordered to rectify pollution issues at 3 power plants
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 13 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Republicans urge Trump to allow Biden briefings as US election
challenges sputter
• No voting system deleted or lost votes in US election: security groups
• Asian stocks fall as virus spread accelerates
• China president Xi Jinping decided to halt Ant’s IPO: WSJ
• Oil falls as Covid-19 spike stokes fuel demand fears; still set for
big weekly gain
• Brent down 0.8% at $43.17, WTI down 1.0% at $40.72 (0118GMT)
• Gold holds steady as virus wave offsets vaccine hopes
• Spot gold steady at $1,876.92/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,874.50 (0044GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Nigeria finmin Ahmed chairs finance bill 2020 public consultation
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• UN says 11,000 have fled Ethiopia to Sudan, 50% of them children
• Explosion in Ethiopia’s capital injures one man
• Nigeria case against JP Morgan over OPL 245 oil deal to go to trial
• Ethiopia says 242 TPLF activists caught planning ‘to sow chaos’
• Egypt transgender woman faces uphill battle against stigma
• Nigeria expects more Benin Bronze returns as soon as next year
• Ghana’s former president Jerry John Rawlings has died at the age of 73
• Ethiopia claims big advance in Tigray, suffering worsens
• 8 peacekeepers, including 6 Americans, killed in Egypt’s Sinai
helicopter crash
• South Africa’s unemployment rate reaches record high above 30%
• South Africa president says travel to all countries will be allowed
• Ethiopia parliament lifts prosecution immunity for Tigray leader
• Zimbabwe journalist Chin’ono denied bail after 2nd arrest
• ‘Humanitarian e-commerce’ thrives in Somalia amid pandemic
• Ethiopia to set up ‘transitional’ rule in parts of Tigray: minister
• 7 Burkina Faso soldiers killed in ambush of presidential election
• Ethiopia claims ‘liberation’ of west Tigray, humanitarian crisis looms
• Kenya’s KCB to restructure a fifth of its loans this year, says CFO
• Petra Diamonds investigates charges Tanzania subsistence miners abused
• Marubeni to pull out of South Africa coal-fired power plant project
• Ethiopia’s PM says bodies of tied military personnel found in Tigray
• Ivory Coast president and opposition to pursue talks amid deadly standoff
• South Africa should aim to cover 10% of population via COVAX, advisors say
• Food aid, medical supplies blocked from Ethiopia’s Tigray, UN warns
• More than 10,000 people fled Ethiopia conflict to Sudan, official says

Bloomberg
• Yield mania gives breathing space to indebted emerging markets
• Zambia stares down the default barrel with key creditors to vote
• South Africa to deport Dutch arms dealer tied to Charles Taylor
• South Africa’s Eskom ordered to rectify pollution issues at three power plants
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment
• South Africa’s Old Mutual CEO sees strong recovery for insurance firm
• Egypt cuts rates for 2nd time in boost for virus-hit economy
• Biggest Kenya bank pauses Ethiopia entry on virus uncertainty
• JP Morgan to reveal bankers who approved suspicious Nigeria oil payments
• Nigeria stocks surge most since 2015, trigger circuit breaker
• Zimbabwe’s Hopewell Chin’ono denied bail over graft claims
• Ghana ex-military ruler turned democrat, Rawlings dies age 73
• ‘We can’t be beaten’, says president of rebel Ethiopia region
• 7 peacekeepers killed in Egypt Sinai helicopter crash, officials say
• Ethiopians donate blood, money to back incursion in rebel region
• G-20 looks to deepen debt relief drive with China’s coordination
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment
• Ghana forces Eni to merge oil field with local firm’s discovery
• South Africa’s unemployment rate swings back to 17-yr high
• IEA cuts oil demand outlook as vaccines won’t rescue market soon
• Africa’s largest economy Nigeria to rectify continent-wide trade zone
• Egypt’s focus on local sugar is bad news for European exports
• AU appeals for calm in disputed Sahara region
• South Africa takes steps to stop regional covid surge spreading
• Nigeria probes protesters under terror-financing law
• Boeing confident in China with thousands of jet orders forecast
• Zimbabwe under investor pressure to end gold sales monopoly

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 12 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Trump presses on with uphill legal struggle
• Wall Street is not overly worried Trump can overturn election
• Asian stocks hold vaccine-driven gains after US defensive shift
• Oil keeps climbing on hopes OPEC+ will hold back supply as Covid-19 cases rise
• Brent up 0.7% at $44.11, WTI up 0.8% at $41.80 (0130GMT)
• Gold muted as firmer dollar, vaccine hopes dim safe-haven appeal
• Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,863.70/oz., futures flat at $1,862.20 (0048GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%]
• South Africa releases labour statistics
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Rwanda genocide suspect Kabuga pleads not guilty at UN court
• Ivory Coast president & opposition to pursue talks amid deadly standoff
• Thousands flee Ethiopia conflict, anti-Tigray protests planned
• From Nobel Prize to fighting former comrades: Ethiopia’s PM Abiy
• Israel to send first delegation to Sudan on Sunday to firm up
normalisation – source
• Greece, Egypt to welcome ‘more decisive’ US involvement under Biden,
Greek PM says
• South Africa’s ANC says it has not asked Magashule to step down over
arrest warrant
• Thousands of refugees flee to Sudan from Ethiopia conflict
• Zambia’s bondholders must accept write-downs – campaign group
• Botswana signs agreement with global vaccine scheme for 20% of population
• Killing of Libya dissident underscores stakes in peace talks
• South Africa regulator not planning to decide on nuclear procurement
on Wednesday
• Explosion in Ethiopia’s capital injures one man
• UN urges Mozambique to investigate reported massacres, beheadings
• Endeavour in Teranga merger talks as West Africa mining deals hot up
• Tanzania opposition presidential candidate leaves for Belgium
• Post-election clashes in Ivory Coast kill 3, wound dozens, sources say
• Ethiopia arrests 17 military officers for disrupting communications

Bloomberg
• Rivals in war-torn Libya agree on path to elections in 18 months
• Uganda activists turn to EU to save forest with chimpanzees
• OPEC+ focuses on delay to oil output hike of 3 to 6 months
• Nigeria billionaire plans to dig platinum mine in Zimbabwe
• Zimbabwe hikes civil servants’ pay 40% to ease costs pressure
• Ivory Coast opposition wants political prisoners freed before talks
• One of the biggest ever diamonds has been found in Botswana
• Nigeria mulls social media rules as EndSARS protests go online
• Ghana inflation edges closer to target as rate drops third month
• Libya oil output at 1.1 mln barrels a day toughens OPEC task
• Ethiopia clashes leave 550 dead; AU urges ceasefire
• South Africa’s Sasol rejects demand for shareholder resolutions on climate
• Zambia on brink of default with creditors set to refuse relief

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 11 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Republicans hint at limited time for Trump to make his post-election case
• Biden says nothing will stop transition as Trump vows new legal action
• Stocks up as vaccine shields against 2nd-wave worries
• Oil gains after stockpile draw amid hopes for coronavirus vaccine
• Brent up 0.7% at $43.92, WTI up 0.9% at $41.72 (0213GMT)
• Gold inches higher on stimulus hopes, virus concerns
• Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,879.31/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,878.70/oz. (0054GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa’s ruling ANC scribe Magashule to be arrested over fraud & corruption allegations
• Kenya county governors meet Kenyatta on BBI; to make new proposals
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone & Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Post-election clashes in Ivory Coast kill 3, wound dozens, sources say
• Ethiopia arrests 17 military officers for disrupting communications
• Ethiopia offensive kills 550 ‘extremists’ in Tigray: TV
• South Africa police issue arrest warrant for top ANC official Magashule
• Sun International says all South Africa operations have recommenced
• Ethiopia sets conditions for peace talks with Tigray
• Several thousand fleeing conflict in Ethiopia to Sudan: official
• Ivory Coast cocoa purchases hit again by post-election unrest
• Battle-hardy Tigray back in spotlight as Ethiopia conflict flares
• Former Mali president Toure, democratic icon toppled in coup, dies at 72
• Tunisia prime minister says coronavirus deaths may reach 7,000
• Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict worsens, refugees flee to Sudan
• Africa bloc urges ceasefire as Ethiopia claims airport in Tigray
• Ethiopia’s Tigray leader says Eritrea sending troops over border
• Eritrea denies troop incursion into Ethiopia’s Tigray
• South Africa energy regulator puts nuclear procurement on meeting agenda
• Mozambique files charges against ex-finmin over $2 bln debt

Bloomberg
• Zambia on brink of default with creditors set to refuse relief
• Zimbabwe is ‘ready’ to help Mozambique fight militants
• Tanzania opposition leader leaves for exile in Belgium
• EU funds biometric tech used for returning Africa migrants
• Africa reacts to Biden winning the US election
• South Africa president tightens grip as main rival faces trial
• Ethiopia to talk with Tigray leaders only once weapons destroyed
• South Africa’s Sasol rejects demand for shareholder resolutions on climate
• Ethiopia police drawn into nation’s deepening ethnic strife
• South Africa issues warrant of arrest for ANC senior official Magashule
• South Africa manufacturing decline slows on food and drinks
• Mali president who led transition to democracy dies at 72
• Zimbabwe to pick adviser by Christmas to help raise $3.5 bln
• Hedge fund blocks Nigeria in $10 bln P&ID dispute
• Egypt inflation at highest since June on education costs

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Markets rally as investors applaud vaccine development
• Yen pressured as vaccine hopes boost risk appetite
• China inflation fails to perk up amid sluggish demand
• Oil falls as near-term demand worries overshadow Covid-19 vaccine relief
• Brent down 1.3% at $41.86, WTI down 1.5% at $39.69 (0139GMT)
• Gold prices gain some ground on stimulus hopes
• Spot gold up 0.5% at $1,871.81/oz., futures up 0.8% at $1,869.40 (0136GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Govt clarification on Nigeria border opening expected [After Dangote Cement reportedly granted exemption]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa participates in US – SA business & investment roundtable
• Nigeria oil sector workers down tools
• South Africa manufacturing production Sep-20 [fcst. -9.0% yy, prev. -10.8%]
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone
& Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopians including soldiers flee escalating conflict to Sudan
• US criticized for police brutality, racism at UN rights review
• Nigeria authorities return police brutality activist’s passport
• China offers backing to Guinea president after disputed election
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara wins 3rd term, final results show
• As Africa penguin population dwindles, researchers plan new colony
• Hundreds killed in escalating Ethiopia conflict, sources say
• Magnate billionaire to run for leadership of Africa football
• Wounded Libya fighters watch Tunis peace talks with cautious hope
• South Africa investors exit local coal project on climate concerns
• Pfizer, BioNTech say their covid-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective
• Ethiopia not heading for ‘chaos’ over Tigray operation, says PM
• Sudan partially closes border with Ethiopia – agency
• In Nigeria, looters target govt warehouses stocked with Covid-19 relief
• Shifting militant tactics curb development in Egypt’s North Sinai
• Concern of outright war in Ethiopia grows as PM presses military offensive
• Ethiopia prime minister fires top officials as conflict in Tigray
region escalates

Bloomberg
• Oil rally loses shine as virus surge offsets vaccine optimism
• South Africa plans short-dated bond to lower borrowing costs
• Nigeria exempts Dangote Cement from land border closure
• Mozambique charges ex-finmin over $2 bln debt scandal
• South Africa regulator to consider approving nuclear power plan
• Profit drops at Kenya’s biggest company on stalling economy
• Ivory Coast unrest hurts cocoa supply as farmers cheer good weather
• Ivory Coast constitution council confirms Ouattara’s re-election
• Ethiopia conflict sparks bond slump amid EM rally
• Ethiopia Airlines may submit SAA management proposal this week
• Rising virus cases spurs South Africa to consider renewed curbs
• South Africa stocks rise as Biden win amps up risk appetite
• Libya unity bid gains momentum as rivals gear up for new talks
• J&J covid-19 vaccine trial cleared to begin in South Africa
• Ethiopia replaces top security officials as conflict escalates

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 9 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Investors celebrate Biden winning US presidency
• Brent crude tops $40, dollar hit 10-wk low; after Biden clinches US presidency
• Brent up 2.1% at $40.27, WTI up 2.3% at $37.98 (0101GMT)
• Gold prices firm as dollar eases after Biden win
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,953.45/oz., futures up 0.2% at $1,955.60 (0049GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone & Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• South Africa SACCI business confidence Oct-20 [prev. 85.7]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa manufacturing production Sep-20 [fcst. -9.0% yy, prev. -10.8%] (10 Nov)
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia’s Tigray region’s president says it is good to try to negotiate
• Ethiopia minister fires top officials as conflict in Tigray region escalates
• Nigeria central bank freezes accounts of police brutality protesters
• In escalating conflict, people of Ethiopia’s Tigray risk displacement, UN says
• Sudan partially closes border with Ethiopia – agency
• Ivory Coast opposition leader arrested for creating rival govt
• Ethiopia air strikes in Tigray will continue, says PM as civil war risks grow
• Ivory Coast opposition leaders face prison for forming rival govt – prosecutor
• Ethiopia’s Abiy vows to disarm ‘fugitives from justice’ in Tigray region
• Cameroon buries 7 children killed in school shooting
• De Beers-owned Debswana to close diamond mine on weak demand – union leader
• UN chief ‘deeply alarmed’ by armed clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• South Africa eases defence firm Denel’s bailout terms
• IMF, World Bank postpone planned 2021 meeting in Morocco by one year
• Barrick sees no risk to mining conventions in Mali, hikes dividend
as gold soars
• Coronavirus knock-on effect hitting vital health services in Africa: WHO
• Ethiopia mobilises for war in northern region

Bloomberg
• Ethiopia replaces top security officials as conflict escalates
• Biden win emboldens bulls as emerging markets scream buy
• J&J covid-19 vaccine trial cleared to begin in South Africa
• South Africa’s economic blueprint lacks funding details, Mbeki says
• Guinea constitutional court validates Conde electoral victory
• Libya reviewing oil output passes million-barrel milestone
• Nigeria central bank gets court order to block protest accounts
• Renewable energy drive threatens 120,000 South Africa jobs
• Tanzania opposition leader seeks refuge with Germany ambassador
• Clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray region put horn of Africa on edge
• Ivory Coast accuses opposition leaders of terrorism after vote
• South Africa treasury denies that budget cuts will stifle growth
• Nedbank analyst who predicted South Africa rand rally says it’s time to pause
• Sewage tests show virus cases rise in South Africa
• Airtel Africa plans tower sales to reduce $3.5 bln debt
• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals slow on election unrest, fuel supply woes
• Shipping camels to China is goal of Sudan’s $140 mln port
• World’s hunger problem means some nations risk famine, UN says
• Nigeria banks to fail stress tests should economic slump deepen
• Tanzania finalizing permit for its first rare-earth metals mine

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 6 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Vote counts push Biden closer to victory as Trump falsely claims
election being ‘stolen’
• Trump campaign loses legal fights in Georgia & Michigan, vows Nevada lawsuit
• Trump lawsuits unlikely to impact outcome of US election, experts say
• Wall Street rallies as investors eye split US Congress
• US oil drops as pandemic rages while presidential vote counting continues
• WTI down 0.8% at $38.47 (0040GMT), Brent down 0.7% in previous session.
• Gold eases on stronger dollar; investors eye close US election outcome
• Spot gold down 0.4% at $1,940.86/oz., futures down 0.1% at
$1,944.70/oz. (0105GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Ethiopia enters state of war, as Tigray regional forces attack federal ones
• Ghana election chief answers questions in parliament on polls
preparedness (7 Nov)
• Results of US presidential elections awaited
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa FX reserves Oct-20 [prev. $54.42B]
• Harrassment of opposition in Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Guinea & Ivory
Coast in focus; rising risk of civil war in Ethiopia also
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia mobilises for war in northern region
• 11 kidnapped teachers freed in Cameroon
• Africans amused but alarmed by US election’s aftermath
• Egypt sentences dozens to jail over 2013 sit-in
• Ethiopia’s Abiy resists diplomatic pressure to halt offensive
• Doctor’s self-funded test lab leads way in Somalia’s Covid fight
• Ivory Coast & Guinea election crises spur fears of prolonged unrest
• Mauritius oil spill clean-up likely to be completed by January: ship owner

Bloomberg
• Nigeria banks to fail stress tests should economic slump deepen
• IMF, World Bank postpone late-2021 Morocco meeting by a year
• Tanzania president sworn for 2nd term after disputed election
• Tanzania finalizing permit for its first rare-earth metals mine
• A stalled conflict in Sahara risks reigniting as trade blocked
• Ethiopia army plans further strikes in restive Tigray region
• Why Ethiopia’s internal tensions risk boiling over
• Renewable energy drive threatens 120,000 South Africa jobs

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 5 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Biden approaches 270 as Trump sues to stop count
• Investors welcome US election gridlock, retreat from ‘blue wave’ bets
• Asia shares follow Wall Street higher on US gridlock bets
• Oil down 1% as US dollar firms on bets of split White House, Senate
• Brent &WTI down 1% at $40.82 & $38.75 respectively (0141GMT)
• Gold steady as investors eye US election outcome
• Spot gold little changed at $1,904.66/oz., futures up 0.5% at
$1,905.50/oz. (0111GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Ghana election & security chiefs answer questions in parliament over polls preparedness
• Tanzania’s Magufuli inauguration, after re-election
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa chairs inaugural meeting of SOEs council
• Results of US presidential elections awaited
• Nigeria’s Lagos judicial panel inquiry on SARS continues
• Harrassment of opposition in Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Guinea & Ivory Coast in focus; rising risk of civil war in Ethiopia also
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa expected to address nation on Covid during the week
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ex-rebel calls on Ivory Coast army to mutiny, join opposition
• Ivory Coast police surround opposition leaders’ houses
• Police brutality activist says she was barred from leaving Nigeria
• Ivory Coast & Guinea election crises spur fears of prolonged unrest
• Kenya extends Covid-19 night curfew to Jan.3
• Ethiopia sends army into opposition Tigray region, heavy fighting reported
• South Africa commission condemns killing of activist who opposed coal mine
• Eleven Cameroon teachers kidnapped in region ravaged by insurgency
• Netflix to debut its first Egypt original series ‘Paranormal’
• Malawi says it will open Israel embassy in Jerusalem
• Over 40 feared dead after boat carrying Mozambique conflict victims sinks
• Zimbabwe police again arrest journalist critical of govt

Bloomberg
• Red Falcon, missiles prioritized for South Africa defense needs
• Botswana wants Angola’s exiled elephants to return home
• France urges political dialogue in Ivory Coast following vote
• Kenya suspends political rallies after ‘most tragic’ virus month
• Renewable energy drive threatens 120,000 South Africa jobs
• Old Mutual sees too much bad news priced into South Africa stocks
• Top Nigeria bank sued for blocking account linked to protesters
• South Africa stocks erase gains as tight US vote hits rand
• Ethiopia prime minister orders army to respond to Tigray attacks
• Lawyer accused of bribery in ICC Kenya case is in detention

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 4 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Trump & Biden split first states to be called as US polls begin to close
• Asian shares turn skittish as early results show tight election
• Investors bet US stocks swings will calm down after election day
• Oil climbs as US stockpiles shrink, but election uncertainty looms over market
• Brent up 1.6% at $40.35, WTI up 1.9% at $38.37 (0157GMT)
• Gold steadies as investors eye US election results
• Spot gold little changed at $1,906.71/oz., futures up 0.1% at
$1,911.60/oz. (0045GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Results of US presidential elections awaited [Concerns about disruptions appear to have been mistaken thus far]
• Nigeria’s Lagos judicial panel on SARS continues evidence-hearing on
Lekki shooting
• Kenya’s Kenyatta meets county governors to assess Covid-19 measures
• IHS Markit releases Africa PMIs for Oct-20
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Tanzania’s Magufuli inauguration, after re-election (5 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa expected to address nation on Covid during the week
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Eleven Cameroon teachers kidnapped in region ravaged by insurgency
• Over 40 feared dead after boat carrying Mozambique conflict victims sinks
• Zimbabwe police again arrest journalist critical of govt
• South Africa commission condemns killing of activist who opposed coal mine
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara wins re-election with 94.27% vote
• Kenya blind students struggle with social distancing as schools re-open
• Uganda opposition presidential candidate Bobi Wine arrested, police
rout protesters
• Ivory Coast police surround opposition leaders’ houses
• Tanzania police arrest opposition leader after visiting colleagues in custody
• Scorned by Trump, many Nigerians love him all the same
• Uganda’s Museveni warns off disruptors as he starts bid for another term
• South Africa’s Aspen agrees initial deal to make J&J vaccine candidate
• Ivory Coast president scores landslide win, opposition cries foul
• Gunmen kill 32, burn houses in attack in Ethiopia – administrator
• Nigeria minister says it’s unclear who shot protesters in Lagos

Bloomberg
• Ethiopia prime minister orders army to respond to Tigray attacks
• Lawyer accused of bribery in ICC Kenya case is in detention
• WHO, nations’ covid response hampered by politics, reviewer says
• Algeria president diagnosed with coronavirus, Ennahar reports
• Bond investors reap Ivory Coast returns despite election strife
• Tanzania opposition vow to protest election loss despite arrests
• Ghana parliament to review gold royalties IPO deal after probe
• Kenya in talks with IMF for fund arrangement, lender says
• Berkshire-backed Teraco plans $250 mln Africa data centre
• Uganda pop star cleared to challenge Museveni for presidency
• South Africa’s Old Mutual CEO reboots strategy after bust-up with predecessor
• South Africa’s Northam in talks to accelerate buyout of black investors’ stake
• Ethiopia says militants killed 32 people in Oromia region
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara secures third term, opposition cries foul
• Saudi, Egypt business activity improves but UAE is dealt setback
• Mozambique gets $116 mln budget support as EU resumes aid

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 3 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• In final pre-election push, Biden & Trump also gird for court battle
• Asia shares hold firm, shrug off US election jitters
• Oil falls as Covid-19 cases soar, Libya output jumps
• Brent down 0.4% at $38.82, WTI down 0.2% at $36.75 (0159GMT)
• Gold steady as investors brace for US elections
• Spot gold little changed at $1,892.51/oz., futures as well at
$1,893/oz. (0123GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• US holds presidential elections [Concerns about Trump not conceding
if loses are overblown]
• Nigeria’s Lagos judicial panel on SARS hears evidence on Lekki shooting
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa addresses Infrastructure South Africa event
• Kenya’s Kenyatta meets MPs on BBI at Naivasha
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Kenya’s Kenyatta meets county governors to assess Covid-19 measures (4 Nov)
• Tanzania’s Magufuli inauguration, after re-election (5 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa expected to address nation on Covid during the week
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• France forces neutralized over 50 militants in Mali, says defence minister
• Ivory Coast president on track election win, opposition cries foul
• Nigeria minister says it’s unclear who shot protesters in Lagos
• Gunmen kill 32, burn houses in attack in Ethiopia: administrator
• Tanzania arrests opposition leaders, foiling post-election protests
• Uganda’s Museveni warns off disruptors as he starts bid for another term
• Lawyer surrenders, accused of bribing witnesses in ICC case against Kenya VP
• AngloGold Ashanti doubles dividend payouts as profits, cash soar
• Tanzania’s President John Magufuli says to work with rivals after tainted poll
• Tanzania police arrest main opposition party leader ahead of protests
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara takes early lead in election
• Algeria voters shun referendum aimed at ending political crisis

Bloomberg
• Mozambique gets $116 mln budget support as EU resumes aid
• Nigeria insurers face record claims as protest costs mount
• OPEC boosts output even as new virus wave sends oil crashing
• South Africa begins talks to regulate key minibus taxi industry
• Russia discusses option of delaying OPEC+ cuts taper by 3 months
• Algeria passes constitutional changes few voted for
• Egypt warns of repercussions of ignoring virus safety measures
• Nigeria forces surround southern oil town after soldiers killed
• Uganda President Museveni is cleared to extend his 34-year rule
• Algerians rebuke govt with record low referendum turnout
• South Africa factory sentiment jumps to record high on demand
• South Africa’s Aspen agrees vaccine manufacturing deal with Johnson & Johnson

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg