Author Archives: rafiqraji

About rafiqraji

Dr. Rafiq Raji is managing director & chief economist at Macroafricaintel Investment LLC, an Africa-focused macro research & investment consultancy based in Lagos, Nigeria. He is also an adjunct researcher at the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Business School, Singapore. Dr Raji is an avid writer, with his writings severally featured in prestigious publications like BusinessDay, Africa Investor, The Africa Report, African Business, New African and HowWeMadeItInAfrica. He was previously an Africa Economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. Before joining the Global Research team at Standard Chartered, Dr. Raji worked with various teams at its Nigerian franchise; gaining experience in credit risk, asset & liability management, and capital markets. Rafiq was also previously Head, Advisory & Capital Markets for the securities brokerage arm of Nigeria's Standard Alliance Group. Prior to that, he had investment banking stints with FBN Capital Limited, Vetiva Capital Management Limited and Africapital Management Limited; all in Lagos, Nigeria. Dr. Raji holds an MBA from the Lagos Business School, Nigeria and a PhD in Financial Economics from Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. His personal interests are travel, music, writing, finance & economics, international politics & relations, comparative religious studies, volunteering/philanthropy, film & photography and everything and anything about Africa! He hopes to learn how to play the guitar and speak, read and write Arabic, French and Mandarin. He is also an assiduous and lifetime student of history.

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 23 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks swing wildly on US-China trade deal mix-up
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-J up 0.7%
  • China blue-chips recover, Hang Seng up 0.7%
  • Australia shares up 0.1%, Nikkei up 0.8%

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices steady amid signs of demand coming back after coronavirus
  • Brent up 6 cents at $43.14 a barrel (0046GMT)
  • WTI up 8 cents at $40.81

Precious metals

  • Gold slips ahead of euro PMI data, second virus wave fears cap losses
  • Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,750.75/oz. (0324GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,763.70/oz.

Grains

  • Corn falls to near 1-wk low on upbeat USDA crop condition report
  • Corn futures down 0.5% at $3.26-3/4 a bushel (0111GMT)
  • Soybeans up 0.1% at $8.77-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.4% at $4.87-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Malawi court-ordered presidential election rerun
  • Nigeria’s Buhari & other WAMZ heads of state meet (virtual)
  • South Africa publishes Q1-2020 labour statistics
  • South Africa’s Zuma returns to court for corruption trial
  • Kenya senate hears impeached Kirinyaga county governor Waiguru’s defense
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa opens inaugural sustainable infrastructure symposium
  • Nigeria finance minister Ahmed speaks at NESG webinar
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence May-20 [prev. 77.8]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Malawi election re-run a test case for African democracy
  • Liberia extends covid-19 state of emergency as cases rise ‘exponentially’
  • South Africa’s City Lodge to raise 1.2 bln rand via rights issue
  • South Africa’s Cell C plans to lay off 960 workers as it streamlines operations
  • Coronavirus slowdown squeezes Ivory Coast cotton sector
  • South Africa rand steadies as focus shifts to budget
  • Suspected militant head arrested in Ivory Coast
  • South Africa to oppose Airlink’s bid to halt SAA creditors meeting
  • Namibia further relaxes coronavirus restrictions despite rising case
  • South Africa’s Aspen says it has capacity to meet demand for dexamethasone
  • Nigeria’s WTO candidate gets regional backing – document
  • Nigeria doctors suspend strike over benefits to hold talks
  • Turkey dismisses Egypt warning of Libya intervention
  • Morocco used NSO’s spyware to snoop on journalist, Amnesty says
  • Police, job-seeking protesters clash in Tunisia city of Tataouine
  • South Africa Telkom axes dividends for 3 years after profit slide
  • Ivory Coast says arrested head of commando unit of June 10 attack
  • Minibus drivers in South Africa strike over coronavirus funding
  • Mozambique offers $2.5 bln funding guarantee to LNG project, says report
  • Morocco’s CPI drops to 0.2% y/y in May – planning agency
  • ICC prosecutors cite grave errors in Ivory Coast’s Gbagbo acquittal at start of appeal
  • Uganda shilling trades unchanged amid flat appetite
  • South Africa’s Edcon creditors go to court to halt restructuring meeting
  • South Africa’s Omnia Holdings in talks for sale of Oro Agri unit

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 22 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks try to shake off second wave virus fears
  • S&P 500 futures erase early gains but second wave fears persist
  • Gold near 7-1/2-year peak touched last month
  • Hong Kong in focus after China reveals details of security law

Oil Markets

  • Oil edges up on tighter supply, but demand concerns check gains
  • Brent up 9 cents at $42.28 a barrel (0009GMT)
  • WTI up 1 cent at $39.76

Precious metals

  • Gold hits 1-mth peak as rising virus fears boost demand
  • Spot gold up 0.7% at $1,754.74/oz. (0225GMT)
  • US gold futures up 1.1% at $1,771.40/oz.
  • SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose 2% on Friday
  • Specs raise gold bullish positions in week to June 16 – CFTC
  • Silver hits more than 1-wk high

Grains

  • Soybeans falls from near 3-mth high, hopes of Chinese demand cap losses
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $8.75-1/2 a bushel (0110GMT)
  • Corn down 0.3% at $3.31-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.2% at $4.80-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Kenya’s Kenyatta meets ruling Jubilee MPs; cabinet reshuffle imminent
  • Ghana reopens senior high schools
  • Ghana opposition NDC press briefing
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence May-20 [prev. 77.8]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Morocco to resume domestic flights starting June 25
  • Egypt high school pupils, masked and gloved, head into exams
  • Former South Africa president De Klerk withdraws from US rights talk
  • UK police arrested Libya man after knife attack in Reading – security source
  • US farming body and Zambia firm partner aim to boost crop yields
  • Ivory Coast ex-president Bedie says he will run in 2020 election
  • Blasts kill 7 people in southern and central Somalia
  • Egypt has a legitimate right to intervene in Libya, Sisi says
  • Egypt is committed to a diplomatic solution to Ethiopia’s dam crisis – Sisi
  • West Africa bloc urges Mali to re-run disputed elections amid mass protests
  • Zimbabwe health minister granted bail over $60 mln graft claims
  • Congo court sentences president’s chief of staff to 20 years in prison
  • Egypt’s Sisi orders army to be ready for missions abroad amid tensions over Libya
  • UN calls for calm, dialogue amid huge Mali protests
  • IMF approves $148 mln emergency credit for Guinea
  • New Development Bank provides South Africa with $1 bln covid-19 loan
  • Egypt calls for UN intervention in talks on Ethiopia’s GERD
  • Rwanda GDP growth slows to 3.6% in Q1 2020 from 6.1% in the same period last year
  • Swiss prosecutors launch Glencore criminal probe over Congo
  • Thousand of protesters demand Mali president step down
  • Morocco records biggest single-day rise in covid cases
  • Nigeria levies $598 mln from banks via cash ratio debit ahead of FX auction
  • Ivory Coast cocoa traders seek fairer share of fairtrade, letter shows
  • Africa Oil – Angola July supply clearing, Vitol wins tender
  • Glencore’s South Africa venture with Merafe starts job cuts process
  • Bangladesh arrests dozens after migrant workers murdered in Libya
  • Kenya shilling firm, supported by horticulture export inflows
  • South Africa unions reject SAA rescue plan over job cuts
  • Russia sovereign fund chief says no point extending OPEC+ cuts – RBC

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 19 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks stutter as second wave virus fears test recovery hopes
  • Investors worry about second wave of covid
  • Oil prices support energy-related shares
  • Dollar benefits as safe haven currency

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices inch up on faith in supply cuts, demand recovery
  • Brent up 0.2% at $41.58 a barrel (0101GMT)
  • WTI up 0.4% at $38.98

Precious metals

  • Gold ticks higher on virus fears; firm dollar caps gains
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,724.91/oz. (0253GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,733.90/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat lingers near 8-mth low, set to finish week down 4%
  • Wheat futures down almost 4% for the week
  • Soybeans up 0.1% for the week
  • Corn down 0.5% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa briefing on new covid alert level 3 measures expected
  • Africa innovation & investment forum 2020; 15-19 Jun
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Egypt surpasses 50,000 confirmed coronavirus cases
  • Ethiopia dam talks stall with proposal for mediation by PMs
  • Barrick Gold alerts authorities after fake news release claims it sold [Zambia] Lumwana mine
  • After second round of voting, Kenya wins spot on UN security council
  • South Africa’s Naspers says earnings for year end March to fall 10-16%
  • At least 13 killed in landslide in Ivory Coast’s main city
  • Algeria in talks with Desertec over solar power projects
  • Mozambique court jails police officers for murder of election observer
  • Sudan approves plan to liquidate, privatise state firms
  • Africa Oil – Chinese buying abating, unlikely to rebound quickly
  • South Africa’s rand, stocks slide as second wave coronavirus fears resurface
  • Nigeria president rebukes security chiefs over worsening violence
  • Kenya president says talks on trade deal with US delayed
  • Russia aircraft active in Libya, AFRICOM says
  • Iraq tells OPEC+ it will compensate for high May oil production
  • Burundi incoming president vos to unite nation isolated over rights abuses
  • South Africa retailer TFG looks to raise $229 mln via rights issue
  • ArcelorMittal South Africa plans job cuts following pandemic hit
  • China’s Shandong Gold to buy Ghana-focused Cardinal Resources for $221 mln
  • Suspects accused of huge South Africa bank theft appear in court
  • South Africa – Cape Town had covid-19 infections earlier than thought, says health official
  • South Africa’s SABC preparing to lay off 600 workers
  • Uganda, Kenya shilling, Zambia kwacha to be stable
  • Ethiopia dam talks stall with proposal for mediation by PMs
  • Nigeria naira recovers after it opens sharply weaker on official window
  • South Africa’s bad debts may hit highest ever level of 10% due to virus
  • Amazon to hire 3,000 people in South Africa for customer service roles
  • Burundi swears in incoming president, week after predecessor’s death
  • Nigeria’s naira opens weaker on official window for second session
  • Kenya video-conference platform elbows its way into crowded field
  • Nigerians face tough job market amid coronavirus outbreak
  • Zambia mining revenues drop 30% due to covid-19, chamber of mines says
  • South Africa’s Sasol revamp to cut jobs, focus on core businesses
  • South Africa non-performing bank loans could hit 10% on covid – association director
  • Uganda shilling trades unchanged, dollar appetite low
  • South Africa’s Amplats targets mines at 75-80% capacity by end-year
  • China will exempt some African countries from repaying certain loans
  • South Africa’s Sasol to discontinue all oil growth activities in West Africa

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 18 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Global stocks retreat on rising second wave fears
  • S&P 500 futures, MSCI ex-Japan Asia shares down more than 1%
  • Investors fret over rise in infections in US, China
  • Australia dollar hit by weak local jobs data

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices drop on demand worries as coronavirus cases rise
  • Brent down 1.1% at $40.26 a barrel (0035GMT)
  • WTI down 1.6% at $37.36

Precious metals

  • Gold flat as dollar strength checks concerns over virus case spike
  • Spot gold flat at $1,725.90/oz. (0256GMT)
  • US gold futures nearly unchanged at $1,734.70/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat hits 8-mth low on ample global stocks
  • Wheat futures down 0.5% at $4.86-1/2 a bushel (0113GMT)
  • Soybeans down 0.1% at $8.70-1/2 a bushel
  • Corn up 0.2% at $3.29-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • AU chair & South Africa president, Ramaphosa, briefs press on continental covid efforts
  • Kenya’s Kenyatta speaks at the Atlantic Council on US-Africa trade; cabinet reshuffle reportedly imminent
  • Kenya (AU endorsed candidate) & Djibouti vie for UN security council Africa slot in second round vote
  • Burundi president-elect Ndayishimiye takes oath of office
  • South Africa VBS Mutual Bank fraud suspects appear in court
  • South Africa ministerial briefing on new covid alert level 3 measures expected
  • Africa innovation & investment forum 2020; 15-19 Jun
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • WHO halts trial of hydroxychloroquine in covid-19 patients
  • Turkey says discussed lasting ceasefire during Libya trip
  • Oxford college says it wants to remove statue of colonialist Rhodes
  • With climate change, conflict & covid, stresses grow for Mali villagers
  • South Africa coronavirus restrictions further eased for casinos, salons
  • Sudan extends lockdown in Khartoum state to June 29
  • West Africa ministers propose phased re-opening of borders
  • France accuses Turkey of hostile acts to stop enforcement of Libya arms embargo
  • Zimbabwe hikes govt salaries 50% as nurses picket for pay in dollars
  • Namibia faces red locust invasion
  • Ghana Cocobod seeks club deal as banks refuse underwriting risk
  • South Africa’s rand inches up, Aspen leads stocks higher
  • South Africa Land Bank close to completing restructuring plan
  • OPEC+ panel makes no recommendation on supply cuts – sources
  • Congo cuts 2020 economic growth forecast to -2.4% – cbank
  • Egypt passes electoral changes that could bolster Sisi supporters
  • Africa Oil – Angola June cargoes selling, differentials steady
  • Important to use dexamethasone only for serious covid cases – WHO
  • OPEC points to 2020 oil surplus even as demand gradually recovers
  • Ugandans join global push to rename colonial-era landmarks
  • China will exempt some African countries from repaying certain loans
  • Poor health and family ties brought Rwanda genocide suspect into custody
  • Zimbabwe nurses protest to demand US dollar salaries
  • South Sudan parties agree on state governorships, in step closer to peace
  • Ghana GDP growth slows to 4.9% y/y in first quarter
  • Acacia Mining employees pay Tanzania $650,000 in tax evasion case
  • Turkish ministers visit Libya, Tripoli govt says
  • Sudan further opens gold trade to private sector
  • Eight suspects arrested in South Africa’s “biggest bank robbery” VBS fraud case
  • Tunisia economy could shrink by as much as 7% this year
  • Nigeria naira slides on official market on plan to align exchange rates
  • Acacia Mining employees released from Tanzania jail
  • Nigeria to seek uniform exchange rates, finmin says
  • Moscow urges US to help reach Libya ceasefire – RIA
  • Nigeria naira opens weaker at 385 per dollar on official window
  • Kenya shilling firm on tight liquidity, low importer demand
  • Nigeria inflation rises in May to 12.4%, lifted by food and drug prices
  • South Africa’s Tongaat to sell eSwatini sugarcane farm for $21 mln
  • South Africa’s Massmart warns of 50% deeper half-year loss due to lockdown

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 17 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks given pause by virus surge, geopolitics
  • Nikkei eases back after rally, S&P 500 futures dip
  • Mood restrained by surge in virus cases, China/India spat
  • Recovery hopes supported by jump in US retail sales

Oil Markets

  • Oil falls on rise in US crude stocks, virus resurgence fears
  • Brent down 1.0% at $40.56 a barrel (0047GMT)
  • WTI down 1.5% at $37.79

Precious metals

  • Gold steady as virus fears offset firmer equities, dollar
  • Spot gold flat at $1,727.22/oz. (0054GMT)
  • US gold futures steady at $1,737/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat drops for 2nd session on harvest pressure, soybeans fall
  • Wheat futures down 0.2% at $4.95-1/4 a bushel (0102GMT)
  • Soybeans down 0.1% at $8.66-1/4 a bushel
  • Corn down 0.5% at $3.27-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Bank of Namibia decides on interest rates [fcst. 3.75%, prev. 4.25%]
  • Nigeria inflation May-20 [fcst. 12.4% yy, prev. 12.3%]
  • Malawi lawyers protest action on judicial independence
  • Africa innovation & investment forum 2020; 15-19 Jun
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • World Bank provides $400 mln to boost health insurance in Egypt
  • Around 9% of Guinea-Bissau health workers have been infected with covid-19
  • Congo mining provinces impose new covid-19 lockdowns
  • Nigeria’s Lagos state suspends plans to reopen places of worship
  • South Africa Airways rescue plan needs over 10 bln rand to work
  • South Africa Airways administrators propose restructuring plan
  • Congo says it will launch a tender for a new passport maker after Semlex talks fail
  • Congo probing ‘violent death’ of judge in landmark graft trial
  • Turkey accuses France of exacerbating Libya crisis
  • Morocco central bank cuts rates to 1.5% to shore up economy
  • Judge in landmark Congo graft trial died violent death, says minister
  • Bodies of children and others found in Libya town after LNA retreat, Red Crescent says
  • Red Cross fears coronavirus spreading silently in Somalia’s displaced camps
  • Egypt Air seeking $185 mln from state banks to weather crisis
  • Dozens missing after boat capsizes on Congo side of Lake Kivu
  • Egypt’s GASC seeking vegoils in local tender for arrival August 10-30
  • Merkel, Erdogan agree UN process for Libya should be bolstered – statement
  • Cameroon archbishop says treating covid-19 with plant-based remedy
  • World Bank approves $1 bln for health, education in Congo
  • Uganda to hold elections in early 2021, campaign rallies banned
  • Egypt seeks loan of over $1 bln, taps UAE banks – sources
  • Tanzania president Magufuli dissolves parliament before vote, touts development record
  • Ivory Coast requests debt holiday from creditors including Paris Club
  • Murders of South Africa women as lockdown eases sparks online campaigns
  • Mali fights coronavirus, cotton farmers fear loss of climate aid
  • Zimbabwe gold miner RioZim halts production over payment delays
  • UK’s SFO ends probe in to De La Rue’s South Sudan dealings

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 16 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares jump, yields rise as Fed readies corp bond buying
  • Fed announces start of corporate bond buying programme
  • Asia equities rally as mood improves
  • Treasury yields edge higher

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices ease as coronavirus infections rise
  • Brent down 0.4% at $39.58 a barrel (0027GMT)
  • WTI down 0.7% at $36.88

Precious metals

  • Gold gains after Fed ramps up support measures
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,726.04/oz. (0504GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.4% at $1,733.90/oz.

Grains

  • Chicago corn jumps over 1% as warm weather hits US crop; wheat gains
  • Corn futures up 1.1% at $3.32-3/4 a bushel (0339GMT)
  • Wheat up 0.5% at $5.07 a bushel
  • Soybeans up 0.4% at $8.72 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria Senate investigative public hearing on the power sector
  • South Africa opposition EFF virtual youth rally; Malema to speak
  • Africa innovation & investment forum 2020; 15-19 Jun
  • Nigeria resident doctors go on strike over PPEs
  • Kenya’s Kenyatta speaks at Atlantic Council on US-Africa trade
  • Uganda opposition coalition protest against Museveni
  • World Bank discusses Africa’s fiscal policy space to address covid-19 economic impacts; Okonjo-Iweala key speaker
  • Nigeria inflation May-20 [fcst. 12.4% yy, prev. 12.3%]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Cape Verde can hold businessman who is close to Maduro for up to 40 days pending extradition
  • Botswana lifts coronavirus lockdown in capital city
  • Mali says 24 soldiers killed in ambush on Sunday
  • France wants talks about ‘aggressive’ Turkish role in Libya
  • Nigeria doctors strike for better benefits during coronavirus crisis
  • Senegal says two soldiers killed after vehicle hit anti-tank mine
  • South Africa rand drops as virus fears hit riskier assets
  • Sudan finds mass grave of conscripts killed during Bashir’s rule
  • South Africa’s Telkom flags 70% fall in annual earnings
  • Africa Oil – Angolan programmes awaited amid glut
  • Kinross Gold resolves Mauritania disputes and secures expansion
  • Gunmen ambush Mali army convoy, soldiers killed – residents
  • Turkey eyes Libya bases for lasting military foothold – source
  • Up to 17 infected, 11 dead in new ebola outbreak in Congo
  • For black people in France, George Floyd protests are personal
  • Nigeria sells 162.6 bln naira of [sukuk] bonds – debt office
  • Botswana investigates 154 elephant deaths, rules out poaching
  • Turkey says no issues with Russia on Libya after talks delayed
  • Siege of Libya’s Sirte behind Turkey-Russia talks delay – Turkish official
  • Sudan war crimes charges are untrue, suspect says
  • IMF cuts Senegal’s 2020 GDP forecast to 1.1%
  • UN rights expert asks to give evidence in South Africa air pollution case
  • UN rights body to examine US racism, police brutality – statement
  • Kenya shilling holds steady, remittances and horticulture exports help
  • Credit from Safaricom’s farming app sows seeds of change in Kenya
  • Congo fashion designer goes virtual as virus hits runway shows
  • South Africa Discovery warns of up to 90% profit plunge
  • Congo’s gold being smuggled out by the tonne, UN report finds
  • Tunisia PM decides against relying on more external debt, will freeze salaries

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 15 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia stocks, oil fall as second wave fears grow
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan down 0.3%
  • Australia shares off 0.1%
  • South Korea easing 0.3%
  • Nikkei down 0.7%

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices drop as rising US coronavirus cases stoke fears of weak fuel demand
  • Brent down 1.7% at $38.07 a barrel (0016GMT)
  • WTI down 2.2% at $35.45

Precious metals

  • Gold steady as second wave fears weigh on risky assets
  • Spot gold steady at $1,729.40/oz. (0316GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,734.90/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat falls on ample supplies, Chinese buying supports soybeans
  • Wheat futures down 0.3% at $5.00-3/4 a bushel (0039GMT)
  • Soybeans down 0.1% at $8.70-1/2 a bushel
  • Corn down 0.1% at $3.29-3/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Ghana starts phased reopening of schools
  • Nigeria inflation May-20 [fcst. 12.4% yy, prev. 12.3%]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Tunisia PM decides against relying on more external debt, will freeze salaries
  • Morocco’s king undergoes successful heart surgery – agency
  • Ghana’s president says health minister tested positive for covid-19
  • Veteran Congo politician Pierre Lumbi dies from coronavirus
  • Tunisia prime minister decides against relying on more external debt
  • Orange eyes Nigeria, South Africa as possible new markets
  • Egypt to reopen all airports on July 1, aviation minister says
  • Zambia asks Paris Club for suspension of debt payments until December
  • Sudan to introduce direct cash payments to its neediest citizens
  • Sudan extends airport closures by another two weeks due to coronavirus
  • Police officer, two militants killed in Kenya, says security official
  • South Africa consults with industry on nuclear power plans
  • Turkey and Russia put off talks expected to tackle Libya and Syria
  • UN says two peacekeepers killed in an attack on a convoy in Mali
  • Militants kill 20 soldiers, 40 civilians in northeast Nigeria attacks
  • Algeria to further relax coronavirus lockdown
  • Egypt confirms highest daily rise of new covid-19 cases and deaths
  • Death toll in migrant ship disaster off Tunisia rises to 61
  • Egypt registers highest daily rise in coronavirus cases in nearly two weeks
  • Botswana reinstates strict coronavirus lockdown in capital city
  • Somalia’s [militant group] says sets up covid-19 treatment centre
  • Congo’s gold being smuggled out by the tonne, UN report finds
  • Tear gas fired as crowd seizes Kenya pop star’s body to halt hasty covid funeral
  • Nigeria’s daily oil output overfull OPEC+ deal – Kyari
  • Popular 25-yr old Uganda gorilla killed at UNESCO park
  • France launches Sahel coalition to fight rising violence
  • Africa Oil – Differentials slide as virus fears, margins weigh
  • South Africa’s rand recovers slightly after selloff
  • Kenya central bank to hold its rate-setting meeting on June 25
  • Coronavirus exposes ‘brutal inequality’ of South Africa townships
  • Burundi president-elect to take power immediately after death of ex-leader
  • Risk of new lockdowns rises with fear of second covid-19 wave
  • French court allows to access to archives on 1994 Rwanda genocide
  • US report on child labour on West Africa cocoa farms faces review after criticism
  • Leopold not to blame for Congo abuse, Belgian king’s brother says
  • South Africa mobile data-only operator plans 5G expansion
  • Malawi 2020 GDP to shrink if coronavirus persists, finmin says
  • New Lesotho PM Majoro says to focus on stability after scandal
  • Gambia ‘Jungler’ arrested in US for role in torture program
  • South Africa should consider zero-based budgeting, finmin says
  • Activists remove statue of Belgian colonial King Leopold II in Brussels
  • Kenya’s Centum confident can weather coronavirus crisis
  • Kenya shilling biased toward stronger side on remittance flows
  • Uganda shilling inches up as some banks trim positions
  • Ruth, 8, tags along as Great Ethiopian Run goes virtual
  • South Africa’s TymeBank rethinks unsecured loans after coronavirus
  • Coronavirus slams West Africa’s cashew market, some crops left to rot
  • South Africa’s rand bounces back after sell-off
  • Kenya’s Centum Investment says full year pretax profit up 85% to 8.2 bln shillings
  • Ethiopia moves children from streets to shelters to slow coronavirus
  • UN warns coronavirus may push millions of children into underage labour

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 12 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares, oil slump as coronavirus fears take hold
  • Equities slump on resurgence of coroanviru infections
  • Oil futures extend sell-off on demand worries
  • Yuan slips against dollar as coronavirus rattles Asian FX

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices extend slump as US coronavirus cases climb
  • Brent down 3% at $37.40/barrel (0011GMT)
  • WTI down nearly 4% at $35.02

Precious metals

  • Gold steady as firmer dollar offsets risk-off sentiment
  • Spot gold flat at $1,727.24/oz. (0056GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.4% at $1,733.30/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat hits near 3-wk low on ample supply forecast, set to end week 3.5% lower
  • Wheat futures set for 3.5% drop for the week
  • Soybean down 0.5% week thus far
  • Corn futures down 0.5% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Democracy day in Nigeria; public holiday & Buhari speech
  • South Africa’s Mabuza in North West to assess covid response
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Kenya’s Centum Investment says full year pretax profit up 85% to 8.2 bln shillings
  • Coronavirus crisis could see number of extreme poor rise to 1.1 bln worldwide
  • Egypt raids activist’s family after US suit against former PM – lawyers
  • US wary of Egypt truce effort in Libya, wants former Danish PM to lead UN peace bid
  • Congo prosecutor seeks 20-yr sentence for president’s chief of staff
  • UN decries reported mass graves found in Libya town after LNA retreat
  • IMF approves additional $111.06 mln to Rwanda to address covid-19 pandemic
  • South Africa activists threaten to sue over nuclear plan
  • Mercy Corps says more than $600,000 lost in Congo aid scam
  • Tanzania says it has begun negotiations over debt relief to shore economy
  • Congo prosecutor seeks 20-yr sentence for president’s chief of staff
  • Egypt to open seaside resorts to foreigners from July 1
  • Burundi constitutional court to decide interim leader after president’s death
  • South Africa rand tumbles on Fed, dismal domestic data
  • Africa’s MultiChoice looks to Netflix and Amazon in strategy shift
  • Africa free trade zone could launch on Jan. 1, says official
  • Africa Oil – Nigeria offers steady with margins still under pressure
  • Kenya arrests 3 policemen for dragging woman behind motorbike
  • Kenya targets tax exemptions to boost coronavirus-hit revenue
  • Pandemic accelerating in Africa, test kits needed, WHO says
  • Tanzania has begun negotiations with G20 nations over debt relief – finmin
  • Ethiopia 2020/21 growth seen at 8.5%, spending to rise 6.8% – finmin
  • South Africa’s Harmony expects to be at full production by around mid-July
  • At least 10 Ivory Coast soldiers killed in attack near Burkina border, army says
  • Uganda to boost external funding to shore up budget
  • Kenya sets a budget deficit of 7.5% of GDP in 2020/21 FY
  • Nigeria Senate passes revised 10.8 tln naira budget based on $28/bbl oil
  • Kenya currency under pressure, Uganda’s firming; in week ahead
  • Angola oil export value plunges 48% in May – finance ministry
  • Uganda to reduce taxes on mobile banking & mobile money transactions – budget speech
  • International trade set to shrink 27% in Q2 after April “nosedive”, says UNCTAD
  • South Africa court rules independent candidates can contest elections
  • Death toll in migrant ship disaster off Tunisia rises to 46
  • South Africa mining output plunges on covid-19 lockdown
  • South Africa manufacturing output down 5.4% y/y in March
  • Namibia economy contracts 0.8% in Q1 2020
  • Turkey says US needs to play more active role in Libya
  • Africa coronavirus “hotspots” in South Africa, Algeria, Cameroon – WHO
  • Kenya shilling loses ground as importers exert demand
  • Uganda shilling unchanged ahead of budget speech
  • Tanzania raises 2020 growth forecast to 5.5% from 4% – finmin
  • Jobs gone, investments wasted: Africa’s deserted safaris leave mounting toll
  • Uganda wants people to leave flooded wetlands – and not come back

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 11 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia stock rush pauses, bonds rally on sober Fed
  • Ex-Asia stocks pause after 10-session winning streak
  • Fed cautious on economy, ready to take further action
  • Bonds rally as Fed mulls yield curve control, guidance
  • Dollar near 3-mth lows on dovish outlook

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices slide on concerns about patchy demand recovery, record US stocks
  • Brent down 2.0% at $40.88 a barrel (0031GMT)
  • WTI down 2.2% at $38.74 a barrel

Precious metals

  • Gold hits over 1-wk high on gloomy US Fed outlook
  • Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,732.56/oz. (0114GMT)
  • US gold futures up 1.2% at $1,741.90/oz.

Grains

  • Chicago soybeans trade near 2-mth peak on strong China demand
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $8.64-1/4 a bushel (0142GMT)
  • Corn up 0.1% at $3.26-1/2 a bushel
  • Wheat up 0.2% at $5.07-1/4 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Kenya, Uganda & Tanzania finance ministers present 2020/21 budgets
  • Nigeria Senate expected to pass amended $30 billion 2020 budget
  • Burundi’s fragile presidential transition in focus
  • Statistics South Africa releases mining & manufacturing data for March & April
  • Nigeria MPs conduct public hearing on contentious health bill
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence May-20 [prev. 77.8]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Ugandans melt plastic waste into coronavirus face shields
  • Pompeo welcomes agreement for UN Libya talks, urges speedy ceasefire
  • Nigeria minister calls for action on ‘alarming’ increase in rapes during coronavirus lockdown
  • Mali 2019 gold mining revenue boosted by strong output, prices
  • WHO hopes to work with US on ebola despite Trump criticism
  • Nigeria’s House send 10.8 trillion naira budget to Senate
  • UN Libya mission says warring sides have engaged in truce talks
  • Libya’s GNA & LNA engage in UN-supported 5+5 joint military commission talks – tweet
  • Morocco MPs rap virus lockdown extension, saying people “exhausted”
  • Nigeria 5-yr naira futures sink to 578 on dollar shortage
  • Nigeria’s House of Representative passes 10.8 tln naira budget based on $28/bbl oil
  • Egypt presidency says Trump welcomed Egypt’s proposal for Libya ceasefire in a call with President Sisi – statement
  • South Africa rand gains as dollar weakens ahead of Fed
  • Africa Oil – Nigeria to cut output by mid-July, HPCL issues tenders
  • Bandits kill at least 20 in northwest Nigeria’s Katsina state, say police
  • AfDB VP resigns, says unrelated to whistleblower probe
  • Zimbabwe president says currency under attack as prices spiral
  • South Africa Implats chairman to retire in October
  • Turkey dismisses Egypt proposal for Libya ceasefire – Hurriyet
  • Eni says situation at Libya’s Mellitah has returned to normal
  • Should we remove statues of Congo’s coloniser king, Belgium councillor asks
  • Paris Club debt freeze reaches $1.1 bln as Ethiopia, Pakistan get relief
  • Toppled statue of English slave trader to be moved to a museum
  • South Africa insurer Sanlam cautious about new business growth on recession worries
  • Burundi begins official mourning of President Nkurunziza
  • Ethiopia extends PM & lawmakers’ terms, to hold polls within a year
  • South Africa pay-TV firm MultiChoice reports first full-year profit
  • Hairdressers go underground as lockdown drags on in South Africa
  • Uganda shilling little-changed but may weaken on importer demand
  • Egypt headline inflation slowed to 4.7% in May – CAPMAS
  • Nigeria to reach OPEC+ compliance by mid-July
  • Zambia tackles ‘deliberate’ undervaluation of mineral exports
  • South Africa mall operator Hyprop says seeing pick up in rent collections
  • Libya’s NOC says output shut down at El Feel oilfield
  • South Africa business confidence hits record low as lockdown batters economy – survey
  • South Africa – Platinum processing continues at Amplats plant despite repairs
  • ArcelorMittal South Africa fined over hydrogen sulfide emissions
  • Battling Somalia’s epidemic, a grieving British doctor finds peace
  • Moody’s downgrades South Africa’s Land Bank deeper into ‘junk’
  • Kenya shilling weakens as easing lockdown restrictions boosts demand
  • South Africa Ascendis Health’s CFO resigns

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Jun

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asia shares creep higher as markets wait for Fed
  • MSCI AxJ index up 0.3%, Nikkei +0.1%
  • Currencies becalmed, yen firm
  • Fed statement due 1800GMT

Oil Markets

  • Oil drops after US inventory build renews oversupply concerns
  • Brent down 1.4% at $40.61 a barrel (0055GMT)
  • WTI down 1.8% at $38.26

Precious metals

  • Gold gains as equity rally pauses ahead of Fed verdict
  • Gold up for third straight session
  • Spot up gold 0.1% at $1,715.43/oz. (0248GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.1% at $1,723.60/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans rise on China demand, wheat snaps 3 day of losses
  • Soybean futures up 0.2% at $8.64-3/4 a bushel (0007GMT)
  • Wheat up 0.2% at $5.05-1/4 a bushel
  • Corn unchanged at $3.27-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Kenya’s Kenyatta meets county governors on covid preparedness
  • Burundi presidential transition after Nkurunziza death; Assembly president Nyabenda yet to be sworn in
  • South Africa SACCI business confidence May-20 [prev. 77.8]
  • Key African countries on lockdown or restricted; subdued economic activity
  • Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • [Terrorist group] kills 69, razes village in northern Nigeria – sources
  • Libya’s NOC confirms continuation of force majeure at Sharara field
  • EU calls on conflict parties in Libya to withdraw foreign forces
  • Sudan committee seizes Bashir’s bank account, closes FX bureaus
  • Morocco to ease coronavirus lockdown measures
  • EU call on conflict parties in Libya to agree on ceasefire, withdraw foreign forces
  • Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan resume talks on Blue Nile dam
  • Guinea signs Simandou iron deal with SMB-Winning consortium
  • Sudan – Darfur militia leader in ICC custody, face allegations of crimes against humanity
  • South Africans protest police brutality against poor under lockdown
  • Ivory Coast to reduce fees paid by domestic cocoa exporters
  • Outgoing Burundi president Nkurunziza, famed for soccer and violence, dies
  • Africa Oil – Spot activity muted after large tender
  • South Africa rand flat, stocks slip as risk bulls pause for Fed meeting
  • Malawi presidential re-run moved forward to June 23
  • Putin & Merkel discuss Syria, Libya, Ukraine in phone call – Kremlin
  • Coronavirus threatens Kenya goal to end FGM by 2022
  • South Africa airline SA Express escapes liquidation for now
  • At least 20 die as migrant boat sinks off Tunisia
  • Administrators propose sale of South Africa’s Edcon, see potential job cuts
  • Orange subsidiary to raise $174 mln on West African debt market
  • Tanzania opposition leader attacked by unidentified people
  • South Africa solar startup SunExchange raises $3 mln
  • Kenya shilling inches down against the dollar
  • South Africa’s Steinhoff flags pandemic hit, scraps Conforama Iberia sale
  • South Africa’s Life Healthcare hit by cyber attack
  • Kenya central bank to hold its rate-setting meeting on June 30
  • Libya’s NOC says “armed force” entered El Sharara oilfield, told employees to stop work

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters