macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 20 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Biden says he has picked a Treasury secretary who will please all Democrats [Yellen, perhaps?]
• Japan aims to expand CPTPP trade pact as UK, China eye membership
• Stocks wobble after Mnuchin pulls plug on Fed stimulus
• Oil prices little changed, on track for third straight weekly gain
• Brent up 0.1% at $44.25, WTI unchanged at $41.90 (0505GMT)
• Gold dips as Mnuchin recalls pandemic-related funds
• Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,864.54/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,863.80 (0359GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• AfCFTA council of ministers meet
• S&P reviews South Africa credit rating [negative outlook from stable expected]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa participates in G20 virtual summit (21-22 Nov)
• Bank of Ghana MPC meets (18-23 Nov) [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia’s Tigray rebels fire rockets into city, region govt says
• Sierra Leone considering a warrant for the arrest of former president
• WHO’s Tedros denies taking sides in Ethiopia conflict
• Ethiopia rebel forces say air strike has injured many university
students in Tigray
• Rebel leader says capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray region bombed
• As new debt crisis looms, Africa needs more than world is offering
• Nigeria should sanction CNN for report on shooting of protesters – minister
• Troops move to quell protests over Bobi Wine, 16 killed
• Ethiopia moves on Tigray capital, castigates WHO boss Tedros
• Judge rejects Zuma request to step down in South Africa graft inquiry
• Stop Ethiopia war and help civilians, Biden team urges
• Zambia seeks ‘win-win’ deal with bondholders after default, says minister
• As covid toll among Kenya doctors jumps, one widow shares her grief
• Three South Africa players isolated after one tests covid-19 positive
• South Africa retailer Pick n Pay launches mobile phone service
• A group of villagers, a migrant boat and a deadly end in Senegal
• South Africa investment conference attracts $7 bln in new pledges
• De Beers diamond sales rise as demand recovers from covid-19 hit
• Three dead and 34 injured in protests against arrest of Uganda’s Bobi Wine
• UN says more than 14,500 have fled Ethiopia to Sudan
• Ethiopia govt says rebels have committed ‘atrocities’ during 2-wk
Tigray conflict
• Outside Somalia’s Mogadishu, locusts turn farmland into desert

Bloomberg
• South Africa may edge to deeper junk rating if S&P cuts outlook
• Hershey is behind the big cocoa trade that upended N.Y. markets
• Ghana blasts ethical cocoa programs and firms refusing to pay up
• Nigeria denies CNN report saying army killed protesters
• Ethiopia army is closing in on Tigray capital, minister says
• South Africa central bank holds rate and signals next move is up
• First vaccine to be made in South Africa since mid-1990s
• Ethiopia army accuses WHO chief of backing dissident region
• Africa has only 20% of financing for energy-deficient nations
• Top South Africa banks split on dividends after Investec payout
• Libya says Total mulls more investment in nation’s oil fields
• Tanzania places China Commercial Bank under administration
• Zuma fails to win recusal of South Africa judge probing graft
• Mozambique open to support in fighting militants, Lusa says
• South Africa can avoid debt crisis, President Ramaphosa says
• Biovac, Sanofi Pasteur to make pediatric vaccine in South Africa
• Africa’s biggest bank says Ramaphosa winning corruption battle
• Absa South Africa rules out dividends with profit down 40%
• Nissan follows Volkswagen in starting car assembly in Ghana
• Ethiopia prime minister trades his Nobel peace prize for civil war
• Uganda to start building oil export pipeline in first half 2021
• Absence may make eurobond investors fonder of African issuers

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 19 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• China to cut tariffs, boost imports of high-quality goods and
services: Xi says
• Sliding dollar steadies as virus worries persist
• Asia stocks ease from highs, bonds count on Fed support
• Wall Street dives as shutdown worries overshadow vaccine hopes
• Oil prices ease a rising covid-19 cases outweigh vaccine optimism
• Brent down 0.4% at $44.17, WTI down 0.7% at $41.53 (0345GMT)
• Gold eases as dollar firms, vaccine progress weighs
• Spot gold down 0.2% at $1,867.43/oz., futures down 0.4% at $1,866.60 (0418GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa central bank decides interest rates [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• AfCFTA council of ministers meet (20 Nov.)
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues; Zondo to rule on Zuma recusal application
• Bank of Ghana MPC (18-23 Nov) [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Coronavirus cases in Africa surpass the 2 mln mark: Reuters tally
• Need to treat all creditors equally led to Zambia default, c.bank says
• Congo declares end of ebola outbreak, sees lessons for covid fight
• Ethiopia says disarms Tigray peacekeepers in Somalia over security
• Ethiopia troops push for regional capital, rebels promise ‘hell’
• Ethiopia seeks arrest of 76 military officers linked to Tigray leaders
• Uganda politician and pop star Bobi Wine says he has been arrested
• Oil companies tighten Nigeria security as protests, job losses stoke tension
• Consortium pulls plug on South Afriac’s Thabametsi coal plant
• Malawi police arrest pastor wanted in South Africa for fraud, money laundering
• In U-turn, Kenya plans to defer $690 mln in debt repayments under
G20 intiative
• Tigray peacekeepers in Somalia disarmed by Ethiopia colleagues, sources say
• Proposal to nationalise South Africa central bank sends ‘negative
signal’ – treasury
• Vedanta Zinc suspends mining at South Africa’s Gamsberg mine after accident
• South Africa court rules insurer Santam should pay hotel group’s
virus-related claim
• Congo declares end of ebola outbreak that killed 55
• Morocco PM says Western Sahara wall at centre of dispute completed
• UN pulls $100 mln from emergency fund in bid to avert famines

Bloomberg
• Ethiopia conflict precipitates mounting humanitarian crisis
• Riots erupt in Uganda after arrest of presidential candidate
• South Africa will avoid debt crisis, President Ramaphosa says
• Awaiting South Africa bailout, land bank locks out farmers
• Zambia central bank hold key interest at record low 8%
• Ghana denies interfering in gold fund probe after official quits
• Kenyans fear they’re on their own as covid-19 surges again
• Santam loses virus-related case in test for South Africa insurers
• Ethiopia freezes assets of fund accused of backing war in Tigray

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 18 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• World shares slip after US retail sales dampen vaccine euphoria
• US retail sales lose speed, manufacturing picks up in October
• Container freight rates soar on consumer goods boom, supply chain kinks
• Oil mixed as hopes OPEC+ delays supply increase offset demand concerns
• Brent up 0.1% at $43.78, WTI down 0.1% at $41.40 (0430GMT)
• Gold inches lower as Covid-19 vaccine optimism weighs on appeal
• Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,877.39/oz., futures down 0.5% at $1,875.30 (0344GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa hosts 3rd SA investment summit
• 4th meeting of AfCFTA senior trade officials; council of ministers meet on 20 Nov.
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues; Zondo to rule on Zuma recusal application
• South Africa retail sales Sep-20 [fcst. -0.3% yy, prev. -4.2%]
• Kenya’s Kenyatta & Odinga launch BBI signatures collection (19 Nov)
• South Africa central bank MPC (17-19 Nov) [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• Bank of Ghana MPC (18-23 Nov) [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia accues Tigray forces of destroying bridges leading to
regional capital
• Ethiopia claims Tigray victories, says army marching to state capital
• Nigeria’s president vows to prevent repeat of anti-police brutality protests
• US condemns Tigray leaders for attacking Eritrea
• Army patrol discovers 29 bodies in eastern Congo
• Trump could withdraw troops from Somalia as part of global pullback
• Ethiopia says its troops marching on Tigray capital
• Africa governance worsens for first time in a decade: survey
• Endeavour to become West Africa’s biggest gold miner with $2 bln Teranga deal
• Full-scale humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ethiopia – UN refugee agency
• Derivatives committee asked to rule on Zambia debt non-payment
• Nobel body urges peace in Ethiopia where laureate engaged in conflict
• After continental retreat, South Africa retailers strain for profits at home
• Ethiopia carries out air strikes in Tigray, PM says surrender ultimatum over
• Germany files espionage charges against Egypt-born man

Bloomberg
• It’s time to buy South Africa Inc., nation’s no.2 pension fund says
• Zimbabwe plans to abandon fixing prices for commodities
• Cocoa’s OPEC turns New York market into trader battleground
• South Africa state arms maker fires workers after bailout snub
• South Africa signs plan to support $908 mln sugar industry
• Morocco sets hard line over ending Western Sahara fighting
• OPEC+ voices caution on oil market as it mulls output-hike delay
• Nigeria says Air France, KLM, Lufthansa to resume flights
• Pastor’s escape strains South Africa ties with Malawi
• Billionaire Gertler buys royalty rights in Congo cobalt project
• Perenco in talks to take majority share of Ivory Coast oil well
• Ivory Coast & Ghana may seek to boost cocoa prices
• South Africa study puts covid deaths much higher than official toll

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 17 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Coronavirus bigger risk to US economy than election dispute: Reuters poll
• Asian stocks edge higher after vaccine hopes push Wall Street to record highs
• Oil prices edge higher ahead of OPEC+ meeing, vaccine hopes
• Brent up 0.4% at $43.98, WTI up 0.3% at $41.47 (0104GMT)
• Gold inches higher on softer dollar, virus woes: vaccine hopes cap gains
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,890.27/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,889.70 (0327GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa participates in 12th BRICS virtual summit
• OPEC+ JMMC meeting; weighs 3-mth cuts extension [final decision on 1 Dec]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues; Zondo to rule on Zuma recusal application
• South Africa central bank MPC (17-19 Nov) [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• Bank of Ghana MPC (18-23 Nov) [fcst. 14.5%, prev. 14.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Africa governance worsens for first time in a decade: survey
• Uganda leader meets Ethiopia official, urges talks
• Tigray leader urges international censure of Ethiopia offensive
• ‘Give us time,’ Ethiopia says of Tigray offensive
• Ethiopia resists mediation as it bombs Tigray capital
• Nigeria ex-president goes to Ethiopia amid mediation push
• EU says won’t monitor Uganda election, limiting poll’s international scrutiny
• Schools close and student pregnancies rise in lockdown Kenya
• Ethiopia says Tigray town seized, war embroils Eritrea
• Ethiopia denies mediation over Tigray underway in Uganda
• South Africa’s Zuma says graft inquiry biased, seeks judge’s recusal
• Zambia on track for protracted debt overhaul as creditors slam lack
of engagement
• Egypt showcases scores of 2,500 year old coffins
• eSwatini’s prime minister tests positive for covid-19
• Pro-Sisi party in commanding position in Egypt parliamentary polls
• Ethiopia seizes town in Tigray, says 10,000 prisoners missing
• US condemns Tigray forces’ attacks on Eritrea
• Gunmen in western Ethiopia kill at least 34 people in bus attack,
rights body says
• Number of refugees fleeing Ethiopia to Sudan surpasses 20,000 – UN

Bloomberg
• Zimbabwe blueprint sees economy expanding 5% a year through 2025
• Ivory Coast cocoa harvesting picks up after election unrest
• Zambia sees deal with Glencore over Mopani copper within a month
• Nigeria plans to start a bridge bank to aid struggling lenders
• Nigeria investors tipped to ignore signs stocks are overheating
• Nigeria inflation rate rises on surging food costs
• Zambia finance minister says bondholders to blame for default
• Warning to veteran politicians as Libya talks to yield govt
• Endeavour Mining to acquire rival Teranga Gold for $1.86 bln in West
Africa expansion
• South Africa’s Sasol $12.8 bln US project reaches finish with last unit
• Kenya doctors threaten strike as virus infections, deaths surge
• South Africa’s Vodacom resets targets with post-pandemic light on horizon
• South Sudan to use its first IMF funding to stabilize currency

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 16 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Asian stocks hit record peak as vaccine hopes dampen virus fears
• China’s factory output beats forecasts as Asia shakes off covid slump
• Oil climbs higher on China, Japan rebound, hopes of OPEC+ supply curb
• Brent up 1% at $43.22, WTI up 1.4% at $40.67 (0204GMT)
• Gold hits 1-wk peak as softer dollar, worsening pandemic lift appeal
• Spot gold up 0.5% at $1,896.85/oz., futures up 0.5% at $1,894.90 (0329GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Nigeria inflation Oct-20 [fcst. 14.0% yy, prev. 13.7%]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• South Africa central bank MPC (17-19 Nov) [fcst. 3.5%, prev. 3.5%]
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• US condemns Tigray forces’ attacks on Eritrea
• Gunmen in western Ethiopia kill at least 34 people in bus attack,
rights body says
• Number of refugees fleeing Ethiopia to Sudan surpasses 20,000 – UN
• Ethiopia PM says the country can achieve objectives of Tigray
operation ‘by itself’
• In escalation of Ethiopia war, Tigray leader says his forces fired
rockets at Eritrea
• Rockets fired at Eritrea capital from Ethiopia, diplomats say
• Fleeing Tigray war, Ethiopians cross river to Sudan
• Demonstrators demand better conditions for Canary Islands’ migrant arrivals
• ‘The soldiers kept shooting’: witnesses testify in Lagos protest probe
• Zambia will not pay eurobond coupon before grace period expires – finmin
• France says it has killed senior militant operative in Mali
• Ethiopians fleeing to Sudan describe air strikes & machete killings in Tigray
• Polisario leader says Western Sahara ceasefire with Morocco is over
• Ethiopia claims big advance in Tigray, Amnesty reports mass killing
• Tigray says two missile strikes on Ethiopia sites targeted military
• After Ivory Coast election, fighting comes to a once-calm town
• IMF says any aid to Zambia requires steps to restore debt sustainability
• Ethiopia: Tigray conflict risks spiralling out of control: UN’s Bachelet
• US condemns ‘massacre of civilians’ in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• Refugee exodus to Sudan swells as war crimes feared in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• 20 migrants drown in Libya shipwreck, fourth accident this week
• Ethiopia denies boming Tigray’s Tekeze power dam
• Senior South Africa ANC leader Magashule granted bail in graft case
• War crimes feared in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict
• UN says more than 14,500 have fled Ethiopia to Sudan
• Zambia eurobond holders reject payment deferral request – finance ministry
• Ethiopia names new Tigray head as conflict boils
• Zambia heads toward Africa’s first post-covid default as debt deadlines loom
• Tanzania re-elected leader keeps finance minister Mpango in new govt
• AU chief sacks security head after Ethiopia questions loyalty
• Egypt: Man sets himself on fire in Cairo’s Tahrir square
• Nigeria case against JP Morgan over OPL 245 oil deal to go to trial
• Egypt transgender woman faces uphill battle against stigma

Bloomberg
• Asia Pacific nations sign the world’s biggest trade deal
• South Sudan to use its first IMF funding to stabilize currency
• SBM Bank (Mauritius) to appoint Servansingh as chairman, Week-End says
• Tigray confirms Eritrea strike as Ethiopia conflict spreads
• OPEC’s got to play the coronavirus waiting game
• Ethiopia Tigray leader confirms firing missiles at Eritrea
• OPEC+ gets scant relief from vaccine as it meets to discuss cuts
• Ethiopia arrests militant suspects planning attacks
• US Army names soldiers killed in Egypt helicopter crash
• Polisario quits Western Sahara 30-yr ceasefire after clashes
• Egypt unveils huge find of ancient coffins and gilded statues
• Ethiopia says rockets fired in Amhara region as violence spreads
• Kenya’s biggest tea grower 4-mth output rises 3.9%
• Nigeria central bank dollar sales fails to stop naira weakening
• WHO approves first ever vaccine for emergency use against polio
• Nigeria President Buhari signs amended banking bill into law
• South Africa Limpopo private sector coal plant project may be abandoned
• G20 back new rules to deepen debt help to poor hit by virus
• Ethiopia withdraws thousands of troops from neighbouring Somalia
• Zambia poised to be first Africa sovereign default in pandemic
• Zambia closer to default after bondholders refuse relief
• Morocco moves army to end Western Sahara blockade, Le360 reports
• South Africa ruling party official charged with graft, fraud
• France forces kill militant group commander in Mali
• Multichoice, Vivendi to team up on new Africa TV productions
• Tanzania targets annual average GDP growth of 8% over five years
• Old Mutual sees resilient South Africa consumers aiding growth
• Scores of civilians massacred in northern Ethiopia, Amnesty says
• Zambia’s plan to sell billionaire’s mines stuck in legal mire
• South Africa’s Eskom ordered to rectify pollution issues at 3 power plants
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 13 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Republicans urge Trump to allow Biden briefings as US election
challenges sputter
• No voting system deleted or lost votes in US election: security groups
• Asian stocks fall as virus spread accelerates
• China president Xi Jinping decided to halt Ant’s IPO: WSJ
• Oil falls as Covid-19 spike stokes fuel demand fears; still set for
big weekly gain
• Brent down 0.8% at $43.17, WTI down 1.0% at $40.72 (0118GMT)
• Gold holds steady as virus wave offsets vaccine hopes
• Spot gold steady at $1,876.92/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,874.50 (0044GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Nigeria finmin Ahmed chairs finance bill 2020 public consultation
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• UN says 11,000 have fled Ethiopia to Sudan, 50% of them children
• Explosion in Ethiopia’s capital injures one man
• Nigeria case against JP Morgan over OPL 245 oil deal to go to trial
• Ethiopia says 242 TPLF activists caught planning ‘to sow chaos’
• Egypt transgender woman faces uphill battle against stigma
• Nigeria expects more Benin Bronze returns as soon as next year
• Ghana’s former president Jerry John Rawlings has died at the age of 73
• Ethiopia claims big advance in Tigray, suffering worsens
• 8 peacekeepers, including 6 Americans, killed in Egypt’s Sinai
helicopter crash
• South Africa’s unemployment rate reaches record high above 30%
• South Africa president says travel to all countries will be allowed
• Ethiopia parliament lifts prosecution immunity for Tigray leader
• Zimbabwe journalist Chin’ono denied bail after 2nd arrest
• ‘Humanitarian e-commerce’ thrives in Somalia amid pandemic
• Ethiopia to set up ‘transitional’ rule in parts of Tigray: minister
• 7 Burkina Faso soldiers killed in ambush of presidential election
• Ethiopia claims ‘liberation’ of west Tigray, humanitarian crisis looms
• Kenya’s KCB to restructure a fifth of its loans this year, says CFO
• Petra Diamonds investigates charges Tanzania subsistence miners abused
• Marubeni to pull out of South Africa coal-fired power plant project
• Ethiopia’s PM says bodies of tied military personnel found in Tigray
• Ivory Coast president and opposition to pursue talks amid deadly standoff
• South Africa should aim to cover 10% of population via COVAX, advisors say
• Food aid, medical supplies blocked from Ethiopia’s Tigray, UN warns
• More than 10,000 people fled Ethiopia conflict to Sudan, official says

Bloomberg
• Yield mania gives breathing space to indebted emerging markets
• Zambia stares down the default barrel with key creditors to vote
• South Africa to deport Dutch arms dealer tied to Charles Taylor
• South Africa’s Eskom ordered to rectify pollution issues at three power plants
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment
• South Africa’s Old Mutual CEO sees strong recovery for insurance firm
• Egypt cuts rates for 2nd time in boost for virus-hit economy
• Biggest Kenya bank pauses Ethiopia entry on virus uncertainty
• JP Morgan to reveal bankers who approved suspicious Nigeria oil payments
• Nigeria stocks surge most since 2015, trigger circuit breaker
• Zimbabwe’s Hopewell Chin’ono denied bail over graft claims
• Ghana ex-military ruler turned democrat, Rawlings dies age 73
• ‘We can’t be beaten’, says president of rebel Ethiopia region
• 7 peacekeepers killed in Egypt Sinai helicopter crash, officials say
• Ethiopians donate blood, money to back incursion in rebel region
• G-20 looks to deepen debt relief drive with China’s coordination
• European firms say South Africa’s poor utilities deter investment
• Ghana forces Eni to merge oil field with local firm’s discovery
• South Africa’s unemployment rate swings back to 17-yr high
• IEA cuts oil demand outlook as vaccines won’t rescue market soon
• Africa’s largest economy Nigeria to rectify continent-wide trade zone
• Egypt’s focus on local sugar is bad news for European exports
• AU appeals for calm in disputed Sahara region
• South Africa takes steps to stop regional covid surge spreading
• Nigeria probes protesters under terror-financing law
• Boeing confident in China with thousands of jet orders forecast
• Zimbabwe under investor pressure to end gold sales monopoly

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 12 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Trump presses on with uphill legal struggle
• Wall Street is not overly worried Trump can overturn election
• Asian stocks hold vaccine-driven gains after US defensive shift
• Oil keeps climbing on hopes OPEC+ will hold back supply as Covid-19 cases rise
• Brent up 0.7% at $44.11, WTI up 0.8% at $41.80 (0130GMT)
• Gold muted as firmer dollar, vaccine hopes dim safe-haven appeal
• Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,863.70/oz., futures flat at $1,862.20 (0048GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%]
• South Africa releases labour statistics
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Rwanda genocide suspect Kabuga pleads not guilty at UN court
• Ivory Coast president & opposition to pursue talks amid deadly standoff
• Thousands flee Ethiopia conflict, anti-Tigray protests planned
• From Nobel Prize to fighting former comrades: Ethiopia’s PM Abiy
• Israel to send first delegation to Sudan on Sunday to firm up
normalisation – source
• Greece, Egypt to welcome ‘more decisive’ US involvement under Biden,
Greek PM says
• South Africa’s ANC says it has not asked Magashule to step down over
arrest warrant
• Thousands of refugees flee to Sudan from Ethiopia conflict
• Zambia’s bondholders must accept write-downs – campaign group
• Botswana signs agreement with global vaccine scheme for 20% of population
• Killing of Libya dissident underscores stakes in peace talks
• South Africa regulator not planning to decide on nuclear procurement
on Wednesday
• Explosion in Ethiopia’s capital injures one man
• UN urges Mozambique to investigate reported massacres, beheadings
• Endeavour in Teranga merger talks as West Africa mining deals hot up
• Tanzania opposition presidential candidate leaves for Belgium
• Post-election clashes in Ivory Coast kill 3, wound dozens, sources say
• Ethiopia arrests 17 military officers for disrupting communications

Bloomberg
• Rivals in war-torn Libya agree on path to elections in 18 months
• Uganda activists turn to EU to save forest with chimpanzees
• OPEC+ focuses on delay to oil output hike of 3 to 6 months
• Nigeria billionaire plans to dig platinum mine in Zimbabwe
• Zimbabwe hikes civil servants’ pay 40% to ease costs pressure
• Ivory Coast opposition wants political prisoners freed before talks
• One of the biggest ever diamonds has been found in Botswana
• Nigeria mulls social media rules as EndSARS protests go online
• Ghana inflation edges closer to target as rate drops third month
• Libya oil output at 1.1 mln barrels a day toughens OPEC task
• Ethiopia clashes leave 550 dead; AU urges ceasefire
• South Africa’s Sasol rejects demand for shareholder resolutions on climate
• Zambia on brink of default with creditors set to refuse relief

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 11 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Republicans hint at limited time for Trump to make his post-election case
• Biden says nothing will stop transition as Trump vows new legal action
• Stocks up as vaccine shields against 2nd-wave worries
• Oil gains after stockpile draw amid hopes for coronavirus vaccine
• Brent up 0.7% at $43.92, WTI up 0.9% at $41.72 (0213GMT)
• Gold inches higher on stimulus hopes, virus concerns
• Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,879.31/oz., futures up 0.1% at $1,878.70/oz. (0054GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• South Africa’s ruling ANC scribe Magashule to be arrested over fraud & corruption allegations
• Kenya county governors meet Kenyatta on BBI; to make new proposals
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone & Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Post-election clashes in Ivory Coast kill 3, wound dozens, sources say
• Ethiopia arrests 17 military officers for disrupting communications
• Ethiopia offensive kills 550 ‘extremists’ in Tigray: TV
• South Africa police issue arrest warrant for top ANC official Magashule
• Sun International says all South Africa operations have recommenced
• Ethiopia sets conditions for peace talks with Tigray
• Several thousand fleeing conflict in Ethiopia to Sudan: official
• Ivory Coast cocoa purchases hit again by post-election unrest
• Battle-hardy Tigray back in spotlight as Ethiopia conflict flares
• Former Mali president Toure, democratic icon toppled in coup, dies at 72
• Tunisia prime minister says coronavirus deaths may reach 7,000
• Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict worsens, refugees flee to Sudan
• Africa bloc urges ceasefire as Ethiopia claims airport in Tigray
• Ethiopia’s Tigray leader says Eritrea sending troops over border
• Eritrea denies troop incursion into Ethiopia’s Tigray
• South Africa energy regulator puts nuclear procurement on meeting agenda
• Mozambique files charges against ex-finmin over $2 bln debt

Bloomberg
• Zambia on brink of default with creditors set to refuse relief
• Zimbabwe is ‘ready’ to help Mozambique fight militants
• Tanzania opposition leader leaves for exile in Belgium
• EU funds biometric tech used for returning Africa migrants
• Africa reacts to Biden winning the US election
• South Africa president tightens grip as main rival faces trial
• Ethiopia to talk with Tigray leaders only once weapons destroyed
• South Africa’s Sasol rejects demand for shareholder resolutions on climate
• Ethiopia police drawn into nation’s deepening ethnic strife
• South Africa issues warrant of arrest for ANC senior official Magashule
• South Africa manufacturing decline slows on food and drinks
• Mali president who led transition to democracy dies at 72
• Zimbabwe to pick adviser by Christmas to help raise $3.5 bln
• Hedge fund blocks Nigeria in $10 bln P&ID dispute
• Egypt inflation at highest since June on education costs

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Markets rally as investors applaud vaccine development
• Yen pressured as vaccine hopes boost risk appetite
• China inflation fails to perk up amid sluggish demand
• Oil falls as near-term demand worries overshadow Covid-19 vaccine relief
• Brent down 1.3% at $41.86, WTI down 1.5% at $39.69 (0139GMT)
• Gold prices gain some ground on stimulus hopes
• Spot gold up 0.5% at $1,871.81/oz., futures up 0.8% at $1,869.40 (0136GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• Govt clarification on Nigeria border opening expected [After Dangote Cement reportedly granted exemption]
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa participates in US – SA business & investment roundtable
• Nigeria oil sector workers down tools
• South Africa manufacturing production Sep-20 [fcst. -9.0% yy, prev. -10.8%]
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone
& Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopians including soldiers flee escalating conflict to Sudan
• US criticized for police brutality, racism at UN rights review
• Nigeria authorities return police brutality activist’s passport
• China offers backing to Guinea president after disputed election
• Ivory Coast’s Ouattara wins 3rd term, final results show
• As Africa penguin population dwindles, researchers plan new colony
• Hundreds killed in escalating Ethiopia conflict, sources say
• Magnate billionaire to run for leadership of Africa football
• Wounded Libya fighters watch Tunis peace talks with cautious hope
• South Africa investors exit local coal project on climate concerns
• Pfizer, BioNTech say their covid-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective
• Ethiopia not heading for ‘chaos’ over Tigray operation, says PM
• Sudan partially closes border with Ethiopia – agency
• In Nigeria, looters target govt warehouses stocked with Covid-19 relief
• Shifting militant tactics curb development in Egypt’s North Sinai
• Concern of outright war in Ethiopia grows as PM presses military offensive
• Ethiopia prime minister fires top officials as conflict in Tigray
region escalates

Bloomberg
• Oil rally loses shine as virus surge offsets vaccine optimism
• South Africa plans short-dated bond to lower borrowing costs
• Nigeria exempts Dangote Cement from land border closure
• Mozambique charges ex-finmin over $2 bln debt scandal
• South Africa regulator to consider approving nuclear power plan
• Profit drops at Kenya’s biggest company on stalling economy
• Ivory Coast unrest hurts cocoa supply as farmers cheer good weather
• Ivory Coast constitution council confirms Ouattara’s re-election
• Ethiopia conflict sparks bond slump amid EM rally
• Ethiopia Airlines may submit SAA management proposal this week
• Rising virus cases spurs South Africa to consider renewed curbs
• South Africa stocks rise as Biden win amps up risk appetite
• Libya unity bid gains momentum as rivals gear up for new talks
• J&J covid-19 vaccine trial cleared to begin in South Africa
• Ethiopia replaces top security officials as conflict escalates

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 9 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets
• Investors celebrate Biden winning US presidency
• Brent crude tops $40, dollar hit 10-wk low; after Biden clinches US presidency
• Brent up 2.1% at $40.27, WTI up 2.3% at $37.98 (0101GMT)
• Gold prices firm as dollar eases after Biden win
• Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,953.45/oz., futures up 0.2% at $1,955.60 (0049GMT)

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]
• UN deputy SG Mohammed visits Nigeria (8-11 Nov), Niger, Sierra Leone & Ghana on post-covid recovery efforts
• South Africa SACCI business confidence Oct-20 [prev. 85.7]
• Ghana ruling NPP’s Akufo-Addo & NDC’s Mahama on the campaign trail
• South Africa state capture inquiry continues
• Covid-19 updates by authorities across the continent
• South Africa manufacturing production Sep-20 [fcst. -9.0% yy, prev. -10.8%] (10 Nov)
• South Africa mining production Sep-20 [fcst. 1.9% yy, prev. -3.3%] (12 Nov)
• South Africa releases labour statistics (12 Nov)
• South Africa’s Ramaphosa briefs parliament on a range of issues (12 Nov)

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
Reuters
• Ethiopia’s Tigray region’s president says it is good to try to negotiate
• Ethiopia minister fires top officials as conflict in Tigray region escalates
• Nigeria central bank freezes accounts of police brutality protesters
• In escalating conflict, people of Ethiopia’s Tigray risk displacement, UN says
• Sudan partially closes border with Ethiopia – agency
• Ivory Coast opposition leader arrested for creating rival govt
• Ethiopia air strikes in Tigray will continue, says PM as civil war risks grow
• Ivory Coast opposition leaders face prison for forming rival govt – prosecutor
• Ethiopia’s Abiy vows to disarm ‘fugitives from justice’ in Tigray region
• Cameroon buries 7 children killed in school shooting
• De Beers-owned Debswana to close diamond mine on weak demand – union leader
• UN chief ‘deeply alarmed’ by armed clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray
• South Africa eases defence firm Denel’s bailout terms
• IMF, World Bank postpone planned 2021 meeting in Morocco by one year
• Barrick sees no risk to mining conventions in Mali, hikes dividend
as gold soars
• Coronavirus knock-on effect hitting vital health services in Africa: WHO
• Ethiopia mobilises for war in northern region

Bloomberg
• Ethiopia replaces top security officials as conflict escalates
• Biden win emboldens bulls as emerging markets scream buy
• J&J covid-19 vaccine trial cleared to begin in South Africa
• South Africa’s economic blueprint lacks funding details, Mbeki says
• Guinea constitutional court validates Conde electoral victory
• Libya reviewing oil output passes million-barrel milestone
• Nigeria central bank gets court order to block protest accounts
• Renewable energy drive threatens 120,000 South Africa jobs
• Tanzania opposition leader seeks refuge with Germany ambassador
• Clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray region put horn of Africa on edge
• Ivory Coast accuses opposition leaders of terrorism after vote
• South Africa treasury denies that budget cuts will stifle growth
• Nedbank analyst who predicted South Africa rand rally says it’s time to pause
• Sewage tests show virus cases rise in South Africa
• Airtel Africa plans tower sales to reduce $3.5 bln debt
• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals slow on election unrest, fuel supply woes
• Shipping camels to China is goal of Sudan’s $140 mln port
• World’s hunger problem means some nations risk famine, UN says
• Nigeria banks to fail stress tests should economic slump deepen
• Tanzania finalizing permit for its first rare-earth metals mine

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters & Bloomberg