macroafricaintel Weekly | 17 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
17 Feb Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2020 12.1 (0.8) 12.0 (0.9)
18 Feb Zambia Interest Rate, % 11.5 11.5
19 Feb Namibia Interest Rate, % 6.25 6.5
19 Feb South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2020 4.4 (0.2) 4.0 (0.3)

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 14 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares tick up, aim for 2nd week of gains amid virus scare
  • Ex-Japan Asian shares up 0.3%, Nikkei loses 0.5%
  • Hopes of govt stimulus support shares
  • Dollar hits 4-mth high as investors flee to US assets
  • Euro hits 3-yr low ahead of euro zone GDP

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices steady but set for weekly gain on supply cut optimism
  • Brent down 9 cents at $56.25 a barrel (0234GMT)
  • WTI down 1 cent at $51.41

Precious metals

  • Gold eases as equities edge up, virus concerns cap losses
  • Gold set to gain 0.3% for the week
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,574.69/oz. (0427GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.1% at $1,577.80/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans on course for biggest weekly gain in nearly 2 mths
  • Soybean futures up 1.5% for the week
  • Corn futures down 1% so far this week
  • Wheat futures down 2.5% for the week

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • US Secretary of State Pompeo visits Senegal; 15-16 Feb
  • Ethiopia’s Abiy visits UAE
  • EFF’s Malema addresses Press Club of South Africa
  • Guinea’s Conde in Saudi Arabia; parliamentary elections on 16 Feb
  • 18th African fine coffees conference & exhibition in Mombasa, Kenya; 12-14 Feb

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Woodside holds on to stake in Senegal oil field as FAR challenge fails
  • Nigeria’s military razed villages in war on insurgents – Amnesty International
  • ‘Ghost’ ancestors: African DNA study detects mysterious human species
  • IMF, World Bank move pushes Somalia closer to debt forgiveness
  • South Africa must fix its public finances, Ramaphosa says
  • South Africa plans summit to finalise continental free trade agreement
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa says restructured SAA should not be dependent on bailouts
  • South Africa says will establish sovereign wealth fund
  • South Africa to procure additional renewable energy to ease shortages – Ramaphosa
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa says economic recovery has stalled due to power shortages
  • Africa Oil – Sonangol sells last spot cargo
  • Mali troops return to key northern city after 6-yr absence
  • Nigeria grants FX access for milk imports to 6 mostly foreign firms
  • Nigeria’s oil output could fall 35% without reforms – Wood Mackenzie
  • Libya reopens Tripoli’s Mitiga airport after hours of closure
  • South African rand slides, stocks dip ahead of Ramaphosa speech
  • Nigeria offers longer-term naira contracts to lure investors, shore up FX
  • Mozambique’s economy grew 2.03% in Q4 – statistics office
  • Sudan inflation jumps to 64.3% in January
  • In further bid to silence media, Somalia harassing journalists online – Amnesty
  • South African state airline SA Express under bankruptcy protection
  • Egypty approves first gold mining licence in more than a decade
  • Ethiopia passes law imposing jail terms for internet posts that stir unrest
  • Nigeria central bank offers 5-yr naira futures contract for first time
  • Africa FX – Kenyan shilling to weaken, Uganda’s to be stable
  • South Africa’s Eskom to spend up to $27 mln on severance packages
  • Thousands of Cameroonians flee to Nigeria as violence flares
  • South African airline Comair expects first half loss due to MAX grounding
  • Sudan agrees to compensate families of USS cole victims – state news agency
  • Uganda’s benchmark lending rate on hold at 9.0% for a second time
  • Blast shuts oil pipeline feeding Nigeria’s Brass oil exports – officials
  • Nigeria’s Green Africa Airways signs initial agreement for 50 Airbus A220-300s
  • Mali architect fights climate change with digital greenhouse
  • Libya’s NOC oil output at 191,475 bpd as of Feb. 12
  • South Africa’s Tongaat in talks to sell starch business

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 13 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Jump in new coronavirus cases stymies stock rally
  • Hubei province reports 14,840 new cases vs 2,015 on Feb. 11
  • US stock futures slip, dollar/yen soft
  • Nikkei down 0.2% in early trade

Oil Markets

  • Oil rises for third day as coronavirus impact may spur output cuts
  • Brent up 0.3% at $55.96 per barrel (0217GMT)
  • WTI up 0.6% at $51.46

Precious metals

  • Gold rises as jump in new virus cases weigh on equities
  • Spot gold up 0.4% at $1,571.23/oz. (0056GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,574.90/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans snap 8 sessions of gains as virus deaths jump
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $8.91-1/2 a bushel (0101GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.2% at $3.82-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat futures unchanged at $5.47-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa opens parliament, delivers state of the nation address
  • Uganda interest rate decision [fcst. 8.0%, prev. 9.0%]
  • Botswana’s Masisi visits Namibia
  • South Africa mining production Dec-19 [fcst. -2.8% yy, prev. -3.1%]
  • Kenya parliament screens new cabinet secretaries
  • Guinea’s Conde in Saudi Arabia
  • 18th African fine coffees conference & exhibition in Mombasa, Kenya; 12-14 Feb

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Algeria says BP did not ask to sell Amenas gas stake
  • Sudan to raise price of some petrol from mid February – ministry source
  • Sudan to continue to subsidise bread but with “justice” – trade minister
  • Nigeria LNG signs 10-yr LNG deal with Galp
  • Africa Oil – Reduced offers aid sales, Asian buyers quiet
  • Head of Sudan ruling council pledges ICC cooperation over Bashir, says right group
  • Tunisia eyes IMF talks in March on sixth review of loan deal – minister
  • South Africa’s rand falls after dismal data, stocks rise
  • OPEC says coronavirus to trim 2020 oil demand, weighs output cut
  • Kenya pledges “valley of peace” legacy as veteran leader Moi buried
  • Italy’s Edison starts exploratory drilling for gas in Egypt
  • AngloGold shifts focus as it sells South African assets to Harmony
  • South Africa retail sales down 0.4% y/y in December
  • UAE’s Dana Gas receives bids for Egypt assets
  • Zambia’s GDP to exceed 3% as copper-producer steps up spending
  • Kenya shilling weakens due to importer dollar demand
  • South Africa’s Tiger Brands says interim profit could fall 36%
  • AngloGold Ashanti to sell South Africa assets to Harmony Gold for $300 mln

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 12 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Stocks inch higher as new coronavirus cases fall
  • Equities cautiously higher in Asia
  • Investors trying to measure spread of coronavirus
  • Oil prices extend rebound from 13-mth lows

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices rise as new virus cases slow, easing Chinese demand concerns
  • Brent up 1.3% at $54.75 a barrel (0137GMT)
  • WTI up 0.9% at $50.39

Precious metals

  • Gold flat as risk sentiment improves on slowing virus threat
  • Spot gold flat at $1,567.62/oz. (0051GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.1% at $1,570.90/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat falls to lowest since December on USDA stockpiles forecast
  • Wheat futures down 0.3% at $5.40-1/2 a bushel (0154GMT)
  • Soybean futures up 0.1% at $8.85-1/2 a bushel
  • Corn futures down 0.1% at $3.79-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • South Africa retail sales Dec-19 [fcst. 1.8% yy, prev. 2.6%]
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • 3rd Nigeria international petroleum summit in Abuja; 9-12 Feb

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Nigeria considers eurobond issue, president to seek approval
  • Artillery shells rain on centre of Libyan capital
  • Rhinos in Kenya face a new threat: drug-resistant bacteria – study
  • Nigerian central bank injects $210 mln into currency market
  • Algeria’s public debt rises to 45% of GDP, economy “delicate” – PM
  • South Africa’s MTN flags 2019 profit jump of up to 50%
  • Africa Oil – Trading slow despite declining freight rates
  • Sudan’s Bashir may face war crimes reckoning
  • South Africa’s rand climbs, stocks recover in global return to risk
  • Doctors in Egypt launch anti-genital cutting campaign after girl dies
  • Sudan agrees ex-president Bashir should appear before ICC over Darfur
  • South Africa’s competition watchdog approves $1.7 bln Pioneer-Pepsico merger
  • Egypt talking to IMF about technical assistance – central bank
  • Sudan ex-leader Bashir refuses to deal with ICC – lawyer
  • Total chief dismisses Tullow Oil takeover idea
  • Uganda says Chinese firm applies to build $1.4 bln power plant on the Nile
  • Morocco threatens to close down Turkish retailer amid trade talks
  • Fuel shortages put squeeze on Sudan’s transitional govt
  • Sudan & Darfur groups agree appearance of people wanted by ICC before the court – minister
  • South African union file court application over SAA job cuts
  • [Terrorist group] claims Algeria border attack
  • Egypt population reaches 100 mln people – statistics agency
  • Thousands bid farewell to Kenya’s veteran leader Moi
  • Uganda to borrow $118 mln from China to build roads key to oil production
  • Founder of South African group Ladysmith Black Mambazo dies
  • South Africa’s manufacturing output drops 5.9% y/y in December
  • Egypt’s net govt debt issues increase 12% in first half of 2019-20
  • Novak to discuss OPEC+ deal with Russian oil companies on Wednesday – TASS
  • South Africa – Harmony Gold’s rebounding profits give hunt for acquisitions fresh impetus
  • South Africa Q4 unemployment rate unchanged at 29.1%
  • Egypt’s power subsidy falls to zero in second half of 2019
  • Nigeria secures $1 mln US grant to plan for gas-fired power plant
  • Burundi central bank bans foreign exchange bureaus for flouting official rates
  • World Bank chief: some development banks worsening poor country debt burdens
  • African Union delays plan to start using fund for security operations

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 11 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian shares bounce, China factories fight to re-start
  • Shares ex-Japan up 0.9%, Shanghai stocks rally
  • Focus on how fast China companies can return to work
  • Sentiment supported by late jump on Wall St
  • Dollar hits 4-mth high on euro as US economy outperforms

Oil Markets

  • Oil gains 1% as short-sellers take profit; investors still wary of coronavirus
  • Brent up nearly 1.5% at $54.06 a barrel (0216GMT)
  • WTI up about 1.3% at $50.20

Precious metals

  • Gold steady as virus fears counter firmer equities
  • Spot gold little changed at $1,570.98/oz. (0041GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.3% at $1,574.60/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans extend gains into seventh straight session
  • Soybean futures up 0.3% at $8.87-1/4 a bushel (0209GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.2% at $3.81 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.5% at $5.49-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • Nigeria’s Buhari state visit to Ethiopia; after AU summit
  • Kenya’s Moi state funeral in Nairobi; public holiday
  • South Africa manufacturing production Dec-19 [fcst. -2.9% yy, prev. -3.6%]
  • South Africa unemployment rate Q4-19 [prev. 29.1%]
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues
  • 3rd Nigeria international petroleum summit in Abuja; 9-12 Feb

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today

  • Algeria military court upholds jail sentences for former intelligence chiefs
  • Sudan seeks US help on subsidy payments, dollar transfers – finmin
  • Mali’s president seeks dialogue with insurgents
  • [Terrorists] kill at least 30 in northeast Nigeria – residents
  • Egypt’s core inflation at 2.7% in January from 2.4% in Dec – central bank
  • Africa Oil – Cheap freight sparks little buying interest as virus weighs
  • Oil producers still in talks over extending output cut – Algeria minister
  • Algeria plans to develop bond, stock markets to ease financial pressure
  • South Africa’s rand inches up ahead of key data
  • Smart drones to be tested in battle against E.Africa locust swarms
  • Libya oil revenues fall to zero in Jan as ports blocked – central bank data
  • Mozambique drops court appeals to extradite ex-minister from South Africa
  • Google plan to buy into largest African wind farm ended by delay
  • Egypt slashes energy subsidy spending in second half of 2019
  • Nigeria’s petroleum bill to be passed by mid-2020 says oil minister
  • Eskom’s urgent bid for bigger tariffs rejected by South Africa court
  • Nigeria’s parliament to receive petroleum bill next week – oil minister
  • Uganda sprays locust swarms to protect coffee crop, livestock
  • Egyptian pound strengthens to 3-yr high
  • Egypt sells $984.8 mln in dollar t-bills at yield of 3.49% – c.bank
  • West African countries to investigate Nigeria border closure
  • Uganda shilling unchanged on lacklustre dollar demand
  • Violence in Africa’s Sahel region attacks the mining food chain
  • Shanta Gold buys Kenya exploration project from Barrick
  • Girl’s drowning sparks water riot in thirsty South African township
  • Kenya shilling weakens due to increased importer dollar demand
  • South Africa’s rand rises after plunging to 3-mth low
  • Satellite data brings farming advice to remote areas of Zimbabwe
  • Congo’s move to control artisanal cobalt is double-edged – Andy Home

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 10 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Global Markets

  • Asian markets stem losses as China returns to work but sentiment jittery
  • Asian shares fall after Friday’s losses on Wall Street
  • Chinese authorities make plans for businesses, schools to reopen
  • Singapore raises alert level on China travel

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices fall on oversupply worries as virus hits China demand
  • Brent down 38 cents at $54.09 a barrel (0100GMT)
  • WTI down 38 cents at $49.49

Precious metals

  • Gold prices tick up as virus fears stoke safe-haven demand
  • Spot gold up 0.1% at $1,572.01/oz. (0100GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.3% at $1,577.50/oz.

Grains

  • Soybeans gain for fourth straight session as China demand worries ease
  • Soybean futures up 0.3% at $8.84-3/4 a bushel (0208GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.4% at $3.82 a bushel
  • Wheat futures down 0.4% at $5.56-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handles @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica]

  • African leaders in Addis Ababa for AU summit; 9-10 Feb
  • South Africa state capture inquiry resumes
  • 3rd Nigeria international petroleum summit in Abuja; 9-12 Feb

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today

  • Trudeau raises issue of detained Canadians with Egypt’s Sisi
  • Suicide bomber attacks Algerian barracks, killing a soldier – defence ministry
  • Libya’s Azzawiya stops refining operations due to lack of crude
  • Route cuts intended to make South African Airways sustainable – rescue team
  • OPEC+ panel calls for more oil cuts on coronavirus impact – Algeria
  • UN to host new Libya ceasefire talks after no deal in first round
  • Somalia president signs new petroleum bill into law
  • Libya’s oil production dropped to 181,576 barrels per day
  • French soldiers kill more than 30 militants in Mali – army
  • Malawi President Mutharika appeaks ruling overturning his election victory
  • Botswana auctions permits to hunt elephants to ease human-wildlife conflict
  • South Africa govt calls for review of SAA route cuts
  • Africa Oil – IOC mops up as spot trade stutters
  • Smuggling pushes Ivory Coast cashew output down 17% in 2019
  • South Africa govt wants SAA route cuts reviewed – ministry
  • South African rand falls to 3-mth low, stocks down
  • Ramaphosa opposes plan to cut South African Airways’ domestic routes
  • Airlink interested in buying some South African Airways assets
  • Fighters step up attacks in Mozambique gas region, beheadings reported – UN
  • Rwanda secures $214 mln China loan for hydropower plant
  • Canadian miner Banro looking to sell Congo gold mine at discount – CEO
  • Congo’s move to control artisanal cobalt is double-edged: Andy Home
  • South African miners keen to start generating their own power
  • Tunisia’s current account deficit narrows on tourism boost – cenbank governor
  • Botswana auctions permits to hunt elephants to ease human-wildlife conflict
  • Kenyan sculptor turns scrap metal into art with a message
  • South Africa’s net foreign reserves rise to $45.1 bln in January

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Weekly | 10 Feb

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji, @macroafrica

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
11 Feb South Africa Manufacturing Production, % yy Dec 2019 -2.9 -3.6
12 Feb South Africa Retail Sales, % yy Dec 2019 1.8 2.6
13 Feb South Africa Mining Production, % yy Dec 2019 -2.8 -3.1
13 Feb Uganda Interest Rate, % 8.0 9.0
Botswana CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2020 2.2 (0.3) 2.2 (0.2)
Tanzania CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2020 3.8 (0.5) 3.8 (0.6)
Namibia CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2020 1.6 (0.2) 2.6 (-0.1)
Nigeria CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2020 12.1 (0.8) 12.0 (0.9)
South Africa CPI, % yy (mm) Jan 2020 4.4 (0.2) 4.0 (0.3)