macroafricaintel | Africa FX Monthly – Dec 2019

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Currency   1 month

(31 Dec 2019)

3 month

(28 Feb 2020)

6 month

(29 May 2020)

12 month

(30 Nov 2020)

South African Rand (USD:ZAR) 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1
Nigerian Naira (USD:NGN) 361.5 361.3 361.7 363.0
Ghanaian Cedi (USD:GHS) 5.3 5.5 5.1 4.9
Kenyan Shilling (USD:KES) 102.5 102.3 102.7 102.9
Ugandan Shilling (USD:UGX) 3,701 3,709 3,703 3,707
Tanzanian Shilling (USD:TZS) 2,293 2,295 2,301 2,285
Ethiopian Birr (USD:ETB) 30.9 31.2 31.5 32.0
Mauritian Rupee (USD:MUR) 37.1 36.5 36.7 37.3
Namibian Dollar (USD:NAD) 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1
Botswanan Pula (USD:BWP) 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.6
Zambian Kwacha (USD:ZMW) 14.5 14.7 14.3 15.0
US Dollar Index (DXY) 98.5 98.3 97.1 97.5

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 29 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Stocks stop short of new peaks as Sino-US tensions weigh
  • MSCI all country equity index just shy of record peak
  • US stock futures dip, Asia bid slightly
  • Major currencies stuck, Chilean peso tumbles

Oil Markets

  • Oil steady amid muted Thanksgiving trade and ahead of OPEC+ meet
  • Brent down 5 cents at $63.82 a barrel (0103GMT)
  • WTI up 1 cent at $58.12

Precious metals

  • Gold eyes worst month in 3 years amid trade deal hopes
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,456.30/oz. (0116GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.1% at $1,462.30/oz.

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • 5th Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Malabo; Nigeria’s Buhari attending
  • e-Nigeria conference, exhibitions & Awards in Abuja; 28-29 Nov
  • Togo’s US embassy begins diaspora voter registration
  • South Africa PSCE Oct-19 [fcst. 6.8% yy, prev. 6.2%]
  • South Africa M3 Oct-19 [fcst. 6.9%, prev. 6.1%]

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Sudan moves to dissolve ex ruling party, repeals public order law
  • Sudan repeals public order act used to regulate women’s behaviour – minister
  • Sudan approves law to ‘dismantle’ former regime – state TV
  • After Mali deaths, Macron assesses Sahel options hoping for EU help
  • Sudan’s midwives told to stop genital mutilation on mothers after birth
  • 4 killed in attacks against ebola response centres in Congo
  • Norwegian police probe bank DNB over Namibia fisheries scandal
  • Guess the rain: Kenya gamifies climate change to help farmers
  • South Africa’s Eskom makes interim profit on higher tariffs
  • Africa Oil – Demand for Nigerian oil high, though loading issues continue
  • Cambridge college to return looted Benin cockerel statue to Nigeria
  • Equatorial Guinea announces $1 bln of energy projects
  • Turkey signs maritime boundaries deal with Libya amid exploration row
  • Nigeria gives UK court $200 mln guarantee for stay on asset seizures in P&ID case
  • South Africa’s rand steady, stocks fall as investor eye trade developments
  • Death-defying South African lauded for defence of land and women
  • Uganda allows study of power project in Murchison Falls national park
  • Growth in loans, credit cards poses risk to South Africa’s economy – central bank
  • Macron tells army: ‘all options open’ in Sahel after Mali deaths
  • African migrants among 20 civilians killed in attacks on Yemen within a week – UN
  • East Libyan warplanes attack Chadian forces near southwest oilfields – LNA official
  • Egypt’s parliament confirms reappointment of Amer as central bank governor
  • South Africa’s Eskom makes 1.3 bln rand profit in first half
  • Kenyan shilling weakens on end month dollar demand
  • Rwanda’s Bank of Kigali quarterly pretax profit up 58.9%
  • Zimbabwe president u-turns on scrapping grain subsidies – state media
  • Kenya’s Centum banks on real estate after H1 profit trebles
  • Turkey and Libya sign deal on maritime zones in the Mediterranean
  • Algeria protesters scuffle with police as election nears
  • 3 dead in attacks against ebola response centres in Congo
  • East Libyan forces launch air strikes near southwest oil fields
  • South Africa’s Vodacom CFO to step down
  • Kenya’s Centum’s H1 pretax profit jumps to 7.72 bln shillings

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 28 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares waver, Hong Kong tensions spoil festive mood after upbeat US data
  • Hong Kong law dents optimistic mood
  • Australian shares briefly touch record high, then retreat
  • Currencies in risk-off mode
  • US markets closed for holiday

Oil Markets

  • Oil drops as US inventory build, record output rekindles supply worries
  • Brent down 0.3% at $63.90 a barrel (0141GMT)
  • WTI down 0.4% at $57.90

Precious metals

  • Gold gains as US bill backing HK protesters fuels trade deal doubts
  • Spot gold up 0.2% at $1,457.60/oz. (0132GMT)
  • US gold futures up 0.2% at $1,456.30/oz.

Grains (27 Nov)

  • Soybeans steady as traders weigh chances for US-China trade deal
  • Hopes of US-China trade deal lend some support to soybeans
  • Corn, wheat slip in run-up to Thanksgiving closure
  • South American crop weather looks favourable – analysts
  • Soybean futures down 0.1% at $8.83-1/2 a bushel (1740GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.8% at $3.75-1/4 a bushel
  • Wheat down 0.5% at $5.28-1/2 a bushel

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • South Africa producer inflation Oct-19 [fcst. 2.9% yy, prev. 4.1%]
  • African continental peace summit in Niamey
  • Namibia general election results expected

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Nigeria meets with West African neighbours on border closure
  • Eastern Libyan forces regain control of El Feel oilfield – LNA
  • Nigeria meets with West African neighbours on border closure
  • 2 Guinea-Bissau ex-premiers through to presidential runoff
  • New sex offenders register may deter Nigerians with ‘no conscience’
  • Billion-dollar LNG project in southern Mozambique expected in 2020
  • South African govt working to ensure SAA’s survival
  • Africa Oil – More Nigerian progs emerge, new tender issued
  • Egypt sentences top militant suspect Ashmawy to death
  • South Africa’s rand firms on risk-on mood, stocks inch up
  • As France mourns 13 soldiers, top general says full victory in Africa impossible
  • French defence minister heads to Mali to honour troops killed in helicopter crash
  • Appeals judges uphold sentence for Congolese ex-vice president Bemba
  • Fastjet looks to sell Zimbabwe business in effort to survive till 2021
  • Kenyan govt says approves set price for household heating tariffs
  • Kenyan shilling weakens on increased importer demand
  • Namibians vote in tight contest clouded by economic crisis
  • South Africa business confidence improves after 2 years –survey
  • Former Guinea-Bissau PM’s through to run-off in presidential vote
  • In rain-short Niger, wasps deployed in war on crop-munching worm
  • Namibia arrests former justice minister in fishing scandal
  • Uganda shilling unchanged as banks and importers trim appetite
  • Egypt’s Rameda Pharmaceutical to float 49% stake on EGX
  • Botswana’s GDP to slow to 3.5% in 2019 – IMF
  • South Africa’s Woolworths posts 2.2% rise in 20-week sales
  • Shrinking lake in Mali spells end of line for family of fishermen
  • France to start probing black boxes from fatal Mali helicopter crash
  • Kenya parliament body cuts finance ministry’s request for extra spending

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 27 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian shares climb on prospects of trade progress, low rates
  • MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.14%
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq finish at record closing highs
  • Trade headlines offset soft US data

Oil Markets

  • Oil dips after US stock build; US-China deal hopes support
  • Brent down 0.3% at $64.08 a barrel (0145GMT)
  • WTI down 0.3% at $58.24

Precious metals

  • Gold eases as Trump’s remarks boost trade deal hopes
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,459.91/oz. (0103GMT)
  • US gold futures unchanged at $1,460.60/oz.

Grains

  • US soybeans tick up after deep losses, South American competition caps gains
  • Wheat futures up 0.1% at $5.31-1/2 per bushel (0141GMT)
  • Corn futures up 0.1% at $3.67-3/4 per bushel
  • Soy futures up 0.3% at $8.86-1/2 per bushel
  • Rice futures nearly unchanged at $12.24 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Kenya’s “BBI” constitutional reforms report launch by Kenyatta et al.
  • Namibia general elections
  • Bank of Mauritius interest rate decision [fcst. 3.25%, prev. 3.35%]
  • South Africa’s Ramaphosa working visit to Lesotho
  • South Africa business confidence Q4 2019 [prev. 21]
  • 2019 Euroliberian film festival in Monrovia
  • Global gender summit in Kigali; 25-27 Nov
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Pompeo urges Egypt to respect freedom of press after journalist detentions
  • Egypt launches first communication satellite – cabinet
  • South Africa’s power sector reform timeline “optimistic” – S&P
  • Tunisia’s state airline to axe 400 jobs in cost-cutting plan
  • Zambia’s KCM smelter set to restart after 2-wk delay – minister
  • Zimbabwe senior doctors stop work as public hospital strike spreads
  • French troops pursuing Mali militants killed in helicopter collision
  • Africa Oil – Total sells Dalia, more Nigerian programmes appear
  • Floods kill at least 39 in Congo’s capital Kinshasa
  • South African rand steady, focus on US-China talks
  • Nigeria holds rates after border closures spur inflation
  • Energy-short South Sudan powers up – but with fossil fuels
  • Nigeria’s central bank holds benchmark interest rate at 13.5%
  • Glencore’s Mutanda mine in Congo shuts a month early
  • Kenyan lenders to shun “wild west banditry”, central banker says
  • WHO, UNICEF evacuate 76 staff from ebola teams in Congo due to insecurity
  • Egypt to sell land to help restructure state companies
  • Kenya shilling weakens on end month demand
  • French Mali troops died after ‘Tigre’ and ‘Cougar’ helicopters collided
  • Ugandan shilling unchanged amid inflows from exporters
  • Tanzania secures $1 bln syndicated loan from TDB bank for infrastructure
  • Egypt to sell 22%-25% of Heliopolis shares in Q1, minister says
  • Botswana opposition challenges election result in court
  • South Africa’s Omnia Holdings swings into interim profit
  • US officials meet with Libya’s Haftar amid push to end Tripoli offensive

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 26 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asian stocks cheered by fresh trade talk momentum
  • Share edge higher in risk-on mood
  • Yen & Swiss franc on back foot in Asia
  • Oil prices reverse losses on trade outlook

Oil Markets

  • Oil prices steady amid hopes for US-China trade deal
  • Brent down 1 cent at $63.64 a barrel (0121GMT)
  • WTI down 3 cents at $57.98

Precious metals

  • Gold dips as China-US trade optimism dents safe-haven demand
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,453.24/oz. (0108GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,453.50/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat eases from 1-mth top, soybeans tick up after 4 sessions of losses
  • Wheat futures down 0.4% at $5.31 per bushel (0150GMT)
  • Corn futures down 0.3% at $3.69-1/4 per bushel
  • Soy futures up 0.2% at $8.94-1/2 per bushel
  • Rice futures nearly unchanged at $12.20 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Central Bank of Nigeria interest rate decision [fcst. 13.5%, prev. 13.5%]
  • Central Bank of Kenya’s Njoroge post-MPC press briefing
  • Guinea-Bissau vote-counting ongoing
  • Global gender summit in Kigali; 25-27 Nov
  • Final campaigns for 27 Nov. Namibia elections
  • South Africa state capture inquiry continues

Key African events or data releases yesterday & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • US officials meet with Libya’s Haftar amid push to end Tripoli offensive
  • Moroccan court jails rapper for insulting police
  • Vedanta warns it may have to process ore outside South Africa
  • 2 killed in Congo after protesters torch UN buildings over massacre
  • Africa Oil – Angolan spot cargoes offered, Nigerian strong
  • Malawi clinches $43 mln from IMF credit programme
  • Cameroon’s main opposition party to boycott February elections
  • South Africa’s big supermarkets told to drop exclusivity clauses in mall leases
  • US recalls ambassador from South Sudan after unity govt failure
  • South Africa’s rand slips back into range as trade jitters resurface
  • Congo rape victims take to catwalk to show female strength
  • South Africa’s Checkers supermarket promises to deliver groceries in an hour
  • Africa urged to diversify export markets amid US-China trade war
  • South Africa at risk unless it rapidly reforms economy – IMF
  • Ivory Coast issues 7-yr 150 bln CFA franc ($255 mln) bond
  • Kenya central bank cuts loan rate to 8.5% for first time in over a year
  • South Africa’s RBPlat concludes 5-yr wage deal with unions
  • Egypt’s central bank governor appointed for second term – state media
  • Ivory Coast 2019/20 cocoa port arrivals seen at 607k T by Nov. 24 – exporters
  • Ethiopia vows to remove barriers to investment in mining
  • Protesters torch DR Congo mayor’s office after massacre
  • Namibian court throws out case against voting machines
  • South Africa expected to sow fewer maizae hectares than in previous season – survey
  • Nigeria’s SecureID taps into Africa’s move from cash to plastic
  • Kenya shilling weakens against the dollar amid end-month demand
  • Uganda shilling weakens amid a rise in demand by banks and importers
  • Waste storage at Africa’s only nuclear plant brimming
  • Potash a key focus for Ethiopia’s mining push – draft document
  • South Africa blocks arms sales to Saudi & UAE in inspection row
  • South Africa’s Pepkor to close loss-making Zimbabwe business
  • South Africa’s Sasol expects H1 profit to slump by at least 20%
  • South Africa’s Pepkor FY profit rises 14.5%

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Daily Brief | 25 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Global Markets

  • Asia shares bounce, hope for best on US-China trade
  • Shares recoup some of last week’s losses in early trade
  • US officials continue to sound optimistic on trade
  • Pro-democracy candidates sweep to power in HK vote
  • Dollar benefits as US economy outperforms

Oil Markets

  • Oil kicks off week with gains on fresh hopes for US-China trade talks
  • Brent up 0.1% at $63.46 a barrel (0220GMT)
  • WTI up 0.2% at $57.87

Precious metals

  • Gold inches lower on trade deal hopes, firmer dollar
  • Spot gold down 0.1% at $1,461.02/oz. (0058GMT)
  • US gold futures down 0.2% at $1,460.60/oz.

Grains

  • Wheat rises for 2nd session on lower US planting; soybeans near 8-wk low
  • Wheat futures up 0.4% at $5.20-3/4 per bushel (0115GMT)
  • Corn futures unchanged at $3.68-3/4 per bushel
  • Soy futures unchanged at $8.97 per bushel
  • Rice futures unchanged at $12.18 per hundredweight

Key African events or data releases today
[Posts & comments at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Bank of Ghana interest rate decision [fcst. 15.0%, prev. 16.0%]
  • Central Bank of Kenya interest rate decision [fcst. 8.0%, prev. 9.0%]
  • Guinea-Bissau vote-counting ongoing
  • AfDB conference on land policy in Abidjan
  • Global gender summit in Kigali
  • Final campaigns in 27 Nov. Namibia elections

Key African events or data releases over the weekend & early a.m today
[Posted & commented on some headlines below at my Twitter handle @DrRafiqRaji]

  • Independent Egyptian news website says its offices were raided
  • Guinea Bissau counts presidential ballots after weeks of chaos
  • Death toll from Kenya landslides rises to 56 as heavy rains lash country’s north west
  • Ex-Namibian minister freed a day after arrest on graft charges
  • Small plane crashes in eastern Congo, killing at least 27 people
  • Spain rescue ship stranded off Italy with 73 African migrants on board
  • Namibian court denies former fisheries minister bail in corruption case
  • Egypt signs energy accords at conference in new capital
  • Ethiopia’s Sidama vote overwhelmingly to form autonomous region
  • Tanzania protests after plane seized in Canada over land compensation dispute
  • I’d rather died at sea than return to Libya, says rescued migrant
  • US indicts Nigerian airline CEO on bank fraud and money laundering charges
  • Egypt signs $430 mln natgas deal at investment forum
  • Zimbabwe’s vice president returns after 4 mths in China receiving medical treatment
  • 2 dead, 9 missing as fishing boat sinks off Morocco
  • S&P downgrades South Africa’s outlook to negative
  • South Africa blocks arms sales to Saudi and UAE in inspection row
  • Telecoms group Orange completes sale of Orange Niger arm to Zamani
  • Africa Oil – Angolan term allocations, Nigerian programmes emerge
  • South African rand steady ahead of ratings decision, stocks up
  • Morocco issued first international bond in 5 years on Thursday – statement
  • African Union urges UK to cede Chagos Islands, end “colonial”rule
  • WHO sounds alarm on ebola due to Congo insecurity
  • South African Airways inks deal to end 8-day strike
  • Weeks before vote, Algerian protesters pile on the pressure
  • South Africa’s Naspers reports 48% slump in profits
  • South African Airways says to restore full schedule this weekend
  • Zimbabwe to order importers to declare forex sourcing – govt
  • Morocco’s CPI rises 0.7% in October – planning agency
  • Uganda shilling trades flat as debt and charity flows lend support
  • Nigeria’s economy grew 2.28% in Q3 after oil output rose to 3-yr high
  • Drone firm in talks in Uganda on medical supply delivery deal
  • South Africa’s Tiger Brands’ annual earnings drop 17% on tepid recovery at meat unit

N.B. Full stories of above headlines are available on Reuters

macroafricaintel Weekly | 25 Nov

By Rafiq Raji, PhD
Twitter: @DrRafiqRaji

Click here for PDF version

Date Data / Event Period Forecast Previous
25 Nov Kenya Interest Rate, % 8.0 9.0
25 Nov Ghana Interest Rate, % 15.0 16.0
26 Nov Nigeria Interest Rate, % 13.5 13.5
28 Nov South Africa PPI, % yy (mm) Oct 2019 2.9 (0.2) 4.1 (0.2)
29 Nov South Africa PSCE, % yy Oct 2019 6.8 6.2
29 Nov South Africa M3, % yy Oct 2019 6.9 6.1